Americans are nearly equally split on whether or not former President Donald Trump should be imprisoned over the Stormy Daniels hush-money case, according to a new poll.

Slightly more people, 40%, think Trump shouldn’t go to jail, compared to 39% who say he should, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll released Monday. The difference between the two groups is well within the margin of error. Another 20% say they’re not sure. Though 9,720 people were polled via telephone and the web, only 4,842 chose to answer this specific question. The margin of error on the full sample is 1.3%, though it goes up to approximately 1.9% for the reduced sample size on this particular question.

After being convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records, whether or not Trump will go to prison for the crime has been hotly debated. It’s up to New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, who is scheduled to sentence Trump on November 26, delayed from the initial date of September 18. Trump could be put on probation, or even given a suspended sentence—which means he would still be guilty, but not be sent to jail at that time.

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Neama Rahmani, former federal prosecutor and president of the West Coast Trial Lawyers firm in California, says the non-jail options are most likely. He said in an interview with Newsweek that Merchan appears reticent to jail Trump, as he declined to do so when Trump violated his gag order 10 times. Rahmani also pointed out the difficulty with jailing a former president.

“Incarceration with Secret Service protection is even less likely and a logistical nightmare,” he said.

Regardless of sentencing, Trump is likely to appeal, and likely to be free while the appeal winds its way through the courts, according to the New York Times. And in fact, on Monday, Trump’s lawyers argued to delay the sentencing further, as his team attempts to get the case sent to federal court, Newsweek reported.

There is at least one person who is arguing for Trump to be sent to jail: Stormy Daniels herself. In June, she told the UK tabloid the Mirror, how she’d like to see Trump sentenced.

“I think he should be sentenced to jail and some community service working for the less fortunate, or being the volunteer punching bag at a women’s shelter,” she said.

“I don’t know what the sentencing could be or what Trump will even understand. It’s like when you have a child, and sometimes you take the electronics away from them, but if your child is very artistic, they don’t. They don’t care. They’ll just go colour their colouring books, and then you have another child that, you know, they don’t want to go outside. You gotta ground them or like take away electronics or don’t let them have dessert. You have to find the punishment that not just matches the crime, but is fair and just, and that impacts that particular person. Who knows what that is with Trump,” Daniels added.

GOP vice presidential candidate and Ohio Senator JD Vance is responsible for a “surge” of new Democratic Party donors and volunteers, the House minority whip said on Monday.

Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA) was interviewed on CNN Monday morning by Kate Bolduan about the November election. During her interview, she talked about what voters “in purple, red and blue districts” thought about Vance.

“They don’t trust JD Vance to order doughnuts. They certainly don’t trust him to order American families on IVF, when and how they can have children. So we’re seeing a surge of volunteers, a surge of first time donors, and we know that Kamala Harris is the underdog going into this, but momentum remains on her side,” Clark said.

Katherine Clark on CNN: "They don't trust JD Vance to order donuts. They certainly don't trust him to order American families on if, when, and how they can have children." pic.twitter.com/tjU66d8CNS

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 9, 2024

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The line about ordering doughnuts refers to an August stop by Vance to Holt’s Sweet Shop in Valdosta, Georgia that was broadcast by C-SPAN and went viral. In the awkward clip, Vance ends up asking for “just whatever makes sense,” instead of ordering a specific type of doughnut. Vance later expressed sympathy for the doughnut shop clerk who served him in an interview with NBC News.

“I just felt terrible for that woman,” Vance said. “We walked in, and there’s 20 Secret Service agents, and there’s 15 cameras, and she clearly had not been properly warned, and she was terrified, right? I just felt awful for her.

“We don’t want to have these scripted events — I don’t want to go and do three takes of buying Doritos at a Sheetz. I like to get out there and talk to people, and we want to make sure we’re doing it but definitely make sure that people are at least OK with being on camera, or we’re going to walk in and you’re going to have a person who has, practically, a panic attack because she’s got 15 cameras in her face.”

Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign has made headlines for the amount of funding it’s raised. During August alone, her campaign raised three times more money than former President Donald Trump’s campaign, according to the Guardian. And in July, at the very start of the Harris campaign, over 170,000 volunteers joined with her, according to Axios.

Current polling shows Harris and Trump in a dead heat. A New York Times poll published Monday shows Trump leading Harris by only 1%, with 48% of polled voters saying they’d pick the former president.

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) is the second Democratic congressman from New Jersey to pass away this year — and state Democrats only have eight days to find his replacement.

Pascrell died Wednesday morning at the age of 87 after an illness. He spent the last month with an undisclosed illness, according to WABC, passing away at the Cooperman Barnabas Medical Center in Livingston, New Jersey.

“It is with deep sadness that we announce that Bill Pascrell Jr., our beloved husband, father, and grandfather, passed away this morning. As our United States Representative, Bill fought to his last breath to return to the job he cherished and to the people he loved. Bill lived his entire life in Paterson and had an unwavering love for the city he grew up in and served. He is now at peace after a lifetime devoted to our great nation America,” Pascrell’s X account posted.

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Pascrell had served in the House of Representatives for 14 terms, and was running to serve again this year. He was known as a Democratic firebrand unafraid to call out Republicans, and was a harsh critic of former President Donald Trump.

His passing puts the Democratic Party in his district in a tough situation, however. The deadline to put a replacement candidate on the ballot for the general election is August 29, according to the New Jersey Globe.

Pascrell handily won his primary on June 4 with 76.1% of the vote, defeating Prospect Park Mayor Mohamed Khairullah. It seems unlikely that Khairullah is in the running to replace him in the general election, given that he got less than a quarter of the vote. As of today, no candidate has thrown their hat into the ring.

Pascrell’s fellow Democratic congressman, Rep. Donald Payne Jr., died of a heart attack on April 24. Payne died after the deadline to replace him on the primary ballot, and won his election despite no longer being alive. Payne’s seat remains vacant, but Democrats were able to run a special July primary to determine who would run in the general election. LaMonica McIver won the primary, and will face off for his seat in the general.

Both seats have been long held by Democratic candidates. Pascrell has held office since 1997, replacing the Republican Bill Martini, who only served one term, and whose predecessor was a Democrat. Payne’s seat has been held by Democrats since 1949.