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Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate

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Nate Silver, the genius statistician who correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2012 presidential election in all 50 states and in 31 of 33 Senate races, just announced his outlook for the 2014 Senate race.

It’s no secret that Nate Silver’s predictions are close to perfect. The 36-year old former New York Times syndicated statistician left The Gray Lady for ESPN where he now prognosticates on his first love — sports — and, occasionally, politics. 

So accurate is Silver that Republicans waged war against him in 2012, when his predictions increasingly assured President Obama a strong win, that one radical Republican created the concept of “Unskewed Polls,” which assured a President Mitt Romney. The world knows how that ended.

Today, at his FiveThirtyEight website, Silver offers Republicans assurances of a likely takeover of the Senate, noting that “the most likely outcome involves the Republicans winning about the six seats they need to take over the Senate, give or take a couple.”

“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error.”

Silver does offer Democrats a glimmer of hope.

“I also want to advance a cautionary note. It’s still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races.”

The question Democrats, liberals, and progressives have to answer themselves is, what happens if the GOP retains the House — quite likely — and takes control of the Senate?

How many of these events are guaranteed?

Impeachment of President Barack Obama

Censure of President Barack Obama

Repeal of (part of) Obamacare

Wave of “religious liberty” laws

Wave of anti-choice, anti-women laws

Wave of anti-LGBT laws

Further culling of voting rights

No liberal or progressive judges confirmed

The end of the EPA, food stamps, and even unions

Immigration “reform” that deports 11-13 million people

Of course, the President would have to sign or veto some of these, but the GOP can force his hand.

What other outcomes do you foresee?

 

Image by DonkeyHotey via Flickr

 

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In ‘Historic’ Rebuke Senate Votes to Curtail Trump

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The U.S. Senate has advanced a resolution that would require President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval for any further military action or additional U.S. troops in Venezuela — “a rare and notable rebuke of the president,” according to Axios, and a rare assertion of the Senate’s constitutional war powers.

Big setback for the White House as 5 GOP Senators join all Democrats in voting to start debate on a war powers resolution re: Venezuela,” congressional reporter Jamie Dupree noted.

NBC News reported that the vote is “the first test of whether Republican lawmakers will publicly oppose Trump’s actions against the country after the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro.”

PBS News noted that the resolution sets up “a test” for President Trump’s “expanding ambitions in the Western Hemisphere.” The Trump administration has said it would veto it should it come to his desk.

U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), the bill’s sponsor, said on Wednesday that the vote is about “whether the United States should engage in military action against Venezuela on a presidential say-so without a vote of Congress.”

U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) voted to advance the legislation, and said: “I believe invoking the War Powers Act at this moment is necessary, given the President’s comments about the possibility of ‘boots on the ground’ and a sustained engagement ‘running’ Venezuela, with which I do not agree.”

NYU Professor of Law Ryan Goodman called the vote “Absolutely historic.”

 

Image via Reuters

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‘Significant Rebuke’: Republicans Preparing to Push Back on Trump

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As President Donald Trump issues increasingly challenging demands, loyal Republicans on Capitol Hill appear ready to at least start pushing back in what is being deemed a “Trump loyalty test.”

In an extremely rare move, the House will vote on Thursday on legislation to override two Trump vetoes in what Politico reported would be “a significant rebuke of the president.” GOP leaders believe there is a good chance enough Republicans will provide the votes necessary for an override. It is currently unclear whether the measure will pass in the Senate.

In another move against the Trump agenda, the House will vote on a bill by Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries that would extend Obamacare subsidies for an additional three years. Nine House Republicans on Wednesday provided the votes necessary to bring the measure to a full floor vote.

READ MORE: Dr. Oz: Seniors Should Delay Retirement to Boost the Economy

“The move goes against the explicit wishes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump’s vision of creating an insurance plan that sends dollars directly to consumers instead,” Politico noted.

The bill’s future in the Senate may be unlikely, but it could provide fuel for a bipartisan group of Senators who are also working to extend the subsidies, while making policy changes to the Affordable Care Act.

One of President Trump’s big asks on Wednesday came in the form of a social media post that demanded the budget for the Department of Defense increase from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, shocking some critics.

“This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump claimed.

“That’s not happening,” an unnamed House Republican told Politico.

Over in the Senate, a Democratic-sponsored bill that would require Trump to obtain congressional approval for any additional military action in Venezuela does not yet have enough GOP votes to pass.

But Politico reported, “keep an eye” on four undecided Republicans, including Lisa Murkowski (AK), Todd Young (IN), Susan Collins (ME) and Thom Tillis (NC).

Similar legislation in the House is being promoted by a Democrat.

READ MORE: Video Appears to Show Federal Agents Preventing Doctor From Helping Shooting Victim

 

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Video Appears to Show Federal Agents Preventing Doctor From Helping Shooting Victim

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A video obtained by HuffPost appears to show federal agents preventing a man who identified himself as a physician from assisting the 37-year old woman fatally shot by an agent on Wednesday in Minneapolis.

In the video, a federal agent tells the man to “back up now,” while he shouts, “I’m a physician!”

Another voice, apparently a federal agent, says, “I don’t care,” while another says, “We’ve got EMS coming.”

When he says, “We have medics on scene, we have our own medics,” a bystander shouts, “Where are they?”

She continues, “How can I relax, you just killed my f – – neighbor!” then asks, “How do you show up to work every day?”

READ MORE: Johnson Set to Jet to UK as Shutdown Looms and Majority Shrinks

“You’re killing my neighbors, you’re stealing my neighbors, what the f – – man?”

The now-deceased woman, who has been identified as Renee Good, was shot “after a group of people began blocking officers during an immigration-related operation in Minneapolis, the Department of Homeland Security said,” NBC News reported.

Some witness descriptions and videos that flooded social media conflict with official statements from DHS.

“Details remained in dispute,” The New York Times reported, “with President Trump saying the agents had acted in self-defense on social media, while state and local officials described federal accounts of the shooting with terms like ‘propaganda’ and ‘garbage.'”

According to BBC News, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said the officer “defensively shot to protect himself.” But Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey “disputes federal officials’ account of the shooting, and demands ICE agents leave the city.”

READ MORE: ‘Stalin-Level Propaganda’: White House Ripped for ‘Alternative’ J6 History in New Report

 

Image via Reuters

 

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