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‘Not Many Signs of a Red Wave at This Point’: Election Experts Say There’s Lots of Good News for Democrats

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Control of the House and Senate have not yet been determined but many political experts are now saying that supposed “red wave” Republicans have been projecting does not look like it will happen.

The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn at 9:51 PM ET election night, tweeted: “So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit.”

“Not many signs of a red wave at this point,” he says.

Historically the President’s party almost always loses seats in the House. In the last midterm elections, 2018, Donald Trump lost 40 House seats.

READ MORE: Watch: Reporter Schools Kari Lake as She’s Accused of Spreading Election Disinformation

“Bill Clinton lost 54 House seats in 1994, Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010 and both went on to win re-election,” Jen Psaki, former Biden White House Press Secretary tweeted earlier Tuesday.

Just before 11 PM on MSNBC Psaki observed, “This was supposed to be an election where it would be embarrassing for Joe Biden to wake up in the morning. And it’s not going to be.”

Indeed, it does not currently appear Democrats will lose anywhere close to that number of seats that Trump, Clinton, or Obama lost in their first (or only) terms. Right now, The New York Times says Republicans are likely to take the House, but control of the Senate is still a tossup.

At 10:45 PM ET MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki says it’s “conceivable” Democrats could keep control of the House, as he stressed he was not making a prediction.

NBC News Senior Capitol Hill Correspondent Garrett Haake points to a Democratic House seat that should have been won by the GOP had there been a “red wave,” but was held. U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) is projected to keep her seat.

There’s more — a lot more.

Gen Z now has its first U.S. Congressman. And out of Florida, a state that appears to be turning rapidly red on election night 2022.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost, 25-years old, has beat the GOP candidate to take the House seat being vacated by Rep. Val Demmings, PBS reports. Demmings lost her bid to unseat Republican Senator Marco Rubio.

PBS calls Frost “a 25-year-old gun reform and social justice activist,” and reports he is “a former March For Our Lives organizer seeking stricter gun control laws and has stressed opposition to restrictions on abortion rights. Generation Z generally refers to those born between the late 1990s to early 2010s. To become a member of Congress, candidates must be at least 25 years old.”

More good news for Democrats.

U.S. Congressman Peter Welch will become U.S. Senator Peter Welch, Democrat of Vermont, replacing the retiring U.S. Senator Pat Leahy, the Associated Press reports.

READ MORE: ‘Should Not Be Normalized’: Warnings Issued After Trump Calls Pelosi an ‘Animal’ on Eve of Election

Also in Vermont, that state has elected Democrat Becca Balint to the U.S. House of Representatives, NPR reports. She becomes the state’s first out lesbian member of Congress.

“Good news for Democrats in flipping two governor races in Maryland and Massachusetts,” Bloomberg News tweets. “Republican moderates had held those seats, though neither was running for re-election. Democrats, taking on new challengers, won easily.”

In Maryland, Democrat Wes Moore becomes the state’s first Black governor, and only the third Black governor. Like Healy in Massachusetts, Moore takes the state out of Republican hands after that states GOP governor retired. he beat a far-right MAGA Republican endorsed by Donald Trump, NPR reports.

Massachusetts has elected Democrat Maura Healy governor, NBC News reports. Healy, the current Attorney General, becomes the first out lesbian governor ever elected in the U.S., Massachusetts’ first woman governor, and move the state from Republican to Democratic control.

More proof of good news for Democrats. In what was expected to be a tight race, Democrat U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia has been re-elected, per NBC News.

And in another bellwether race, CBS News moved U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire to “lean Democrat,” meaning incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan was likely to be re-elected. The New York Times reports Hassan is “pretty likely” to keep her seat.

But at 10:50 PM ET MSNBC and NBC News projected Hassan will keep her seat.

Finally, in Pennsylvania, MSNBC and NBC News says Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, is the projected winner in the governor’s race over Christian nationalist Republican Doug Mastriano.

UPDATE: 11:08 PM ET –

This is a breaking news and developing story. Details may change. 

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COMMENTARY

‘Total Breakdown’: House Sends Members Home – Experts Warn ‘Republicans Can’t Govern’ And Have No ‘Working Majority’

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Nine days before an increasingly-likely shutdown of the federal government of the United States, Speaker Kevin McCarthy has effectively adjourned the House for the rest of the week, with GOP leadership telling members they may go home and come back next week, after a procedural vote to fund the Dept. of Defense failed for the second time this week.

Fox News’ Chad Pergram reports, “Note that the House has not officially dismissed everyone.. but everyone expects they are done for the week. Why? They House lacks the VOTES TO ADJOURN.”

He later added that “Things are very fluid,” and “there could be votes TOMORROW or this weekend still in the house. This could be a problem if some members already got on flights.”

Fox News online is reporting, “House abruptly cancels votes for the week without spending deal after series of defeats for GOP leaders,” and notes members are not expected back until Tuesday.

READ MORE: ‘Just Want to Burn the Whole Place Down’: McCarthy Rails Against House Republicans as GOP Conference Explodes in Chaos

McCarthy this week has repeatedly denigrated and attacked the extremist members of the House Republican conference on camera to reporters, and Thursday was no different, saying, “This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down.”

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) blasted House Republicans upon hearing the House was about to adjourn for the week.

“What you need to understand is that chaos is the point for a big chunk of House Republicans. They came to congress to BURN THE GOVERNMENT TO THE GROUND,” the Connecticut Democrat wrote. “Their goal is a shutdown.”

The sentiment is being echoed by political experts, but many of those are placing the blame on Speaker McCarthy.

Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett, senior advisor to former Obama Cabinet secretary Julián Castro Thursday afternoon wrote: “Reminder: Kevin McCarthy could put a clean bill to fund the government on the floor right now and it would pass easily. Instead, he’s sending members home for the weekend with 9 days until a shutdown—all because he’s afraid he’ll lose his job.”

Evidence that the far-right extremist House Republicans, led by U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) are effectively in control comes via Punchbowl News co-founder Jake Sherman:

At 1:13 PM ET Sherman posted that Rep. Gaetz had “just emerged from” Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s suite. “Gaetz said that he’s advocating for pausing consideration of the Pentagon spending bill and moving to bills that cut spending. He mentioned: State-Foreign Ops, Agriculture, Energy and Water.”

READ MORE: Pete Buttigieg Just Testified Before Congress. It Did Not Go Well for Republicans.

Sherman noted that Gaetz “said again there are not enough votes” for a continuing resolution, legislation to keep the government open temporarily, possibly 30 days past the September 30 deadline.

“Just to review, the plan right now is to begin passing 11 appropriations bills with relatively open rules allowing for amendments between next tues (possibly wed) and Sunday.”

At 2:40 PM, Sherman added, “This is now the strategy. They’re going to bring up individual approps [appropriations] bills next week, per lawmakers who just met with @SpeakerMcCarthy.”

Congressman Gaetz’s “strategy is now house gop’s plan, Sherman wrote, to which Gaetz replied: “God Bless America.”

Others were less pleased.

Veteran foreign policy journalist Laura Rozen wrote: “truly insane. Mccarthy surrendered to Gaetz.”

Even before McCarthy adjourned the House for the rest of the week, political experts had warned the volatile situation was worse than it may have appeared.

Sherman, late Thursday morning, issued this warning on social media after the failed Defense Dept. vote: “Just to put this in context, republicans cannot even agree to debate the pentagon spending bill. This bill usually passes by big margins. It failed twice this week. Kevin mccarthys House Republicans are in a state of crisis.”

READ MORE: ‘Good Riddance’: Experts Blame Rupert Murdoch for ‘Intellectual and Moral Decay’ of America, Issue Warning on Future

Josh Chafetz, Georgetown Law professor of law and politics, responded to Thursday’s failed Defense Dept. procedural vote, writing: “if you can’t pass the procedural stuff you don’t have a working majority.”

Aaron Fritschner, the Deputy Chief of Staff to U.S. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) is calling the state of the GOP House a “total breakdown.”

“I started working in the House nearly 11 years ago, I’ve seen some crazy days and some chaotic votes but never seen anything like what is happening with this majority. Just a total breakdown,” he wrote Thursday morning.

Professor and American historian Aaron Astor on Thursday asked, “Does the GOP actually have a working majority in the House?”

Veteran journalist John Harwood quickly replied, “clearly not.”

 

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COMMENTARY

‘Good Riddance’: Experts Blame Rupert Murdoch for ‘Intellectual and Moral Decay’ of America, Issue Warning on Future

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Rupert Murdoch‘s announcement he is stepping down as chairman of Fox Corp. and News Corp. circulated rapidly Thursday morning, with critics celebrating the exit of the billionaire media mogul some are blaming for the “intellectual and moral decay of our society.”

Murdoch created Fox News, which he launched in October of 1996. His massive empire also includes the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal, along with dozens of other media outlets in the U.S. and around the world.

“I have decided to transition to the role of Chairman Emeritus at Fox and News,” his letter, addressed to “Dear Colleagues,” reads. One of his sons, Lachlan Murdoch, “will become sole Chairman of both companies.”

“My father firmly believed in freedom,” Murdoch adds, “and Lachlan is absolutely committed to the cause. Self-serving bureaucracies are seeking to silence those who would question their provenance and purpose. Elites have open contempt for those who are not members of their rarefied class. Most of the media is in cahoots with those elites, peddling political narratives rather than pursuing the truth,” he claimed.

READ MORE: ‘Another Alleged Instance of Obstruction’: New ‘Rock Crusher’ Revelation Makes Case Against Trump Even Stronger Expert Says

The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake was among the many who pointed to Murdoch’s “elites” remark.

“Murdoch in his letter: ‘Most of the media is in cahoots with those elites, peddling political narratives rather than pursuing the truth,'” Blake writes, before pointing to court documents from the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit Fox News settled for $787 million. “Murdoch in the Dominion documents: Showing exceeding concern about angering the most powerful man in the world [Donald Trump] by telling the truth.”

Author, editor, and professor of international relations, Nicholas Grossman, also focused on Murdoch’s “elites” remark.

“Rupert Murdoch’s parents had the titles of Sir and Dame. He’s a multi-billionaire, and very influential, owning prominent news outlets in the US, UK, and Australia. The notion that Murdoch, of all people, is not elite, and not in cahoots with media, is ridiculous, absurd, insane.”

Although Murdoch’s move is not effective until the shareholders’ meeting in November, his announcement comes just one day after a Vanity Fair interview with author Michael Wolff: “Murdoch Chronicler Michael Wolff Foresees the Fall of Fox News: ‘It Will Cease to Exist in Its Present Form.'”

“Now, with The Fall: The End of Fox News and the Murdoch Dynasty, Wolff has directed his poison pen back to a topic that helped make his name,” Vanity Fair’s Joe Pompeo writes.

READ MORE: ‘Brazen and Misguided’: Schumer Decimates Tuberville’s ‘Act of Desperation’ – and Threatens to Hold Senators in DC

Wolff’s focus is on what happens to Fox News after the 92-year old Rupert Murdoch dies, and how his more liberal son James might impact the media empire.

“I think it will cease to exist in its present form,” after Murdoch’s death said Wolff. “I think it will go into a radical transition in which, either James Murdoch will take over and change it into something else, or they will sell it. Fox has existed in its present state just for one reason: It’s controlled by Rupert Murdoch, who is the one man who can stand up, or has been able to stand up, to the political and social opprobrium at a fierce, fierce level, and to do this for the sake of making enormous amounts of money. But when he departs, that changes very clearly and very quickly.”

Wolff added he thinks the “logical” decision will be to sell off Fox News.

“I think it’s more logical, at any rate, to sell the whole damn thing. And I think the position that cable television news is not going to get more valuable, it’s only going to get less valuable, is persuasive.”

Wolff Thursday morning reposted this photo:

Political and journalism experts, like foreign policy, national security and political affairs analyst and commentator David Rothkopf, on Thursday cheered the Murdoch news and denounced his reign.

READ MORE: White House Mocks GOP With ‘Worst Person You Know’ Meme After Matt Gaetz Blames McCarthy for Shutdown

“On this happy day on which Rupert Murdoch has announced his retirement, let us reflect on the fact that no single individual has done more damage to Western democracy or more for the intellectual and moral decay of our society during the past half century than Rupert. Good riddance,” wrote Rothkopf.

“I believe one could accurately argue that Rupert Murdoch did more to corrode American democracy and fuel division than any other individual in modern history,” wrote veteran intelligence officer, activist, and social media personality Travis Akers. “His departure from Fox News leaves a wake of public distrust, violence, and a nation in a cold civil war.”

Author and former Chicago Tribune editor Mark Jacob adds, “Millions of Americans are more ignorant and less loyal to our democracy because they got their’news’ from Rupert Murdoch.”

MSNBC’s Medhi Hassan wrote: “As Rupert Murdoch announces his ‘retirement’, a reminder that some of the worst things we have had to experience in recent years – the Iraq war, the rise of Trump, the Big Election Lie – are all thanks to him and to Fox.”

Media Matters for America President Angelo Carusone served up this warning:

“Lachlan Murdoch is worse than Rupert Murdoch, so you’ll basically just get a more malevolent version of Fox that will also be even more chaotic since Lachlan is both a less competent leader and Fox is facing an especially turbulent period that Lachlan has no idea how to navigate.”

With an eye to the future, veteran journalist Kara Swisher offered this on Lachlan Murdoch: “Prediction: It will be a short reign of the crown prince — after the old man goes, the other siblings will have the con and it will all be sold off (Elon? Right leaning PE firm or media org?).”

Media Matters’ Madeline Peltz also glimpsed into what the future might look like under Lachlan’s leadership.

“Lachlan Murdoch is now the sole chairman of his family’s media empire. He is a dangerous ideologue who unwaveringly backed Tucker Carlson’s white supremacy on the network,” Peltz said, referring to the now-former top Fox News host. She added: “Murdoch was the number one champion of Tucker Carlson, even as he cost Fox News millions in ad revenue and spread dangerous extremism that inspired acts of right-wing terrorism around the world.”

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DeSantis ‘Shuts Down’ Question of How He Would Handle His Kids Being LGBTQ: ‘We’ll Leave That Between My Wife and I’

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Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, currently polling 40 points behind GOP 2024 presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, in a rare TIME magazine interview refused to answer a reporter’s question about what he would do if one of his three children were LGBTQ – but he did spend time promoting his parents’ rights platform.

“I think we were viewed, really from Day One, as the candidate that had the strong record on the issues important to parents,” the Florida Republican told TIME’s national political correspondent Molly Ball in a 30-minute interview at the Iowa State Fair published Wednesday,

“’It has been an issue, really, from the beginning,’ he says of the ‘parents’ rights’ agenda that has been central to his struggling presidential candidacy. ‘And so I do think we’ve tapped into that, and we’ll continue to do it.'”

Parents’ rights is the latest conservative code word for “family values,” as TIME’s national political correspondent Molly Ball notes.

READ MORE: ‘We’re Gonna Start Slitting Throats on Day One’: DeSantis Makes New Deep State Pledge in Campaign Reboot

But it really was really a platform the Florida governor grabbed after it proved to be a winning issue for Virginia Republican Glenn Youngkin in what had been a “long-shot” gubernatorial battle. Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s infamous gaffe on parents’ rights gave new life to the Republican political novice’s campaign in September of 2021, just weeks before the election and just weeks after DeSantis announced he would run for re-election.

“As governor of Florida, DeSantis says, education policy is part of his purview, but it’s also personal,” Ball writes in her TIME interview.

DeSantis told her, “I also just see it through the lens of a dad of a six, five and three-year-old.”

“We understand some of the things that parents are concerned about and that parents are going through. And that impacts how we view these policies, particularly when it goes to things like parents’ rights to be involved in the education.”

Ball writes, “Framing it all a crusade for ‘parents’ rights’ is a neat trick politically, highlighting a throwback, traditionalist view of what used to be termed ‘family values,’ but with a very 2023 culture-war spin.”

READ MORE: DeSantis Boots Campaign Manager, Replaces With Conservative Aide Behind Governor’s Top Far-Right Policies

“Kids should be kids—there shouldn’t be an agenda,” DeSantis told Ball. “I didn’t feel like there was an agenda when I was growing up.”

Despite DeSantis’ claim that kids should be allowed to be kids, he and his wife Casey DeSantis have very publicly included their children in the campaign.

Ball reports, “I ask DeSantis about the rights of parents of trans children, who are being prevented by the state from accessing the medical care they may believe is in their kids’ best interest. He points to the ongoing debate over transgender treatment in Europe, where some experts have recently been moving away from a purely affirmative approach, arguing that the state has an interest in preventing ‘sterilizing children at age 13 or 14′ or performing sex-change surgery on minors.”

DeSantis’ remarks do not appear to be representative of heath care options for minors in the U.S., based on a May report from The Annenberg Public Policy Center’s Factcheck.org.

DeSantis continued his remarks against appropriate medical support of transgender youth.

“As a parent right now, I can’t take my six-year-old daughter and get her a tattoo, even if I want to do that,” he told Ball. “You don’t have the right to do things that are going to be destructive to kids. I think that some of these parents are being told by physicians who are making a lot of money off this that you have to do this, otherwise your kid can end up doing something like commit suicide. I think that they get bullied into thinking this is the right decision.”

READ MORE: Ron DeSantis: I Would Have Loved to Hang Out With Jesus and His Disciples – America Needs More God

LGBTQ youth suffer far higher rates of suicide ideation and suicide attempts than their non-LGBTQ counterparts.

A May, 2022 NPR report titled, “Nearly half of LGBTQ youth seriously considered suicide, survey finds,” specifically mentions DeSantis’ “Don’t Say Gay” legislation.

Ball also reports DeSantis shut down her question about the possibility of his children being LGBTQ and what he would do.

She writes, “when I ask how he’ll respond if one of his children turns out to be gay or trans, his eyes flash momentarily, and he swiftly shuts down the question. ‘Well, my children are my children,’ DeSantis says. ‘We’ll leave that—we’ll leave that between my wife and I.'”

 

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