Circumstances have placed Democrats in an enviable position, but there are numerous reasons why the party has plenty of reasons to temper its confidence going into the November midterms, warns New York Times opinion writer Frank Bruni.

From winning numerous special elections to dousing President Donald Trump’s efforts to pick up House seats for Republicans with mid-decade redistricting, Democrats have overperformed. Things are going so well that in addition to believing they can retake majority control of the House, Democrats now have their eyes on the Senate.

Democrats are also benefiting from President Donald Trump at “peak derangement,” Bruni explains, along with former allies like Tucker Carlson “swearing him off,” and prices that refuse to fall.

“President Trump may not be Jesus, but he’s performing a resurrection — of the Democratic Party. It’s enough to give an agnostic like me religion,” Bruni writes.

But he is not uncontrollably optimistic, and delivers a seven-point warning that Democrats, he says, should keep in mind.

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“Voters still dislike them. A lot,” Bruni writes. The Republican Party’s approval ratings are slightly better than the Democratic Party’s. Democrats cannot assume an “anti-Trump posture” will be enough for them to sail to victory in the midterms.

“Every time people tell me, ‘Well, Trump is getting less and less popular, and his approval ratings are so low,’ I say, ‘Yeah, and national Democrats are even lower,’” Senator Elissa Slotkin, Democrat of Michigan, told Politico’s Playbook, Bruni notes.

“Not all elections over the past six or so months — and not all data — point to a swelling blue wave,” he warns. Bruni notes that in last week’s Virginia redistricting vote, Democrats won only by about three percentage points. In generic ballots, when voters are asked which party they want to have control of Congress, voters choose Democrats, but only by about five points. Bruni calls that margin “underwhelming.”

“The map isn’t kind to Democrats,” he continues. If Democrats really want to take the Senate, they can afford to make few mistakes. Democrats must hold all their current seats, and flip four more. Bruni calls it “tough” terrain.

“There’s zero assurance of party unity,” Bruni observes. Despite the “grave stakes” of GOP control of Congress, Democratic “infighting” remains. “The tension between the party’s progressive and moderate wings is thick,” he notes, and warns that for the good of the party, all sides must come together if they want Democrats to win in November.

Bruni calls Democrats’ financial picture “mixed,” explaining that while some individual Democrats have “amassed war chests much bigger than that of their Republican rivals,” GOP committees and super PACs have been more successful.

There are still redistricting battles Democrats need to win, and “uncertainty about which party will ultimately come out ahead” remains.

Lastly, Bruni warns, “Trump could have some very, very dirty tricks up his sleeve.”

Trump did try to overturn the 2020 election results, has continued to push to end voting by mail, and talks about “taking other measures that are obviously intended to suppress the Democratic vote total.”

Bruni concludes by calling himself “bullish” on Democrats’ chances in November, but adds that these are not “normal times,” and suggests that “Democrats may have to generate enthusiasm and turnout well beyond whatever burden they’d normally confront.”

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President Donald Trump on Thursday told reporters that he was “never much in favor” of prediction markets. “I don’t like it conceptually. It is what it is. I’m not happy with any of that stuff.”

“Well, you know, the whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump, a former casino owner, told reporters. “And you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things.”

“I’m not happy with any of these sites,” Trump said. “They have predictive markets — it’s a crazy world, it’s a much different world than it was.”

And yet, Trump and some of his family members stand to benefit financially from those very markets, according to The New York Times.

“The president’s publicly traded media company unveiled its own prediction market product last year,” the Times reports. “And the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has ties to two of the industry’s top firms, including Polymarket.”

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Ethics experts the Times consulted say Trump’s public statements directly contradict his family’s financial interests in the industry.

Despite Trump’s admonition, new regulations are not expected. Last year, the Trump administration “backed away from enforcement efforts against Polymarket, and it is unclear whether regulators will adopt any new oversight measures.”

The Times reports that the White House “has warned staff not to wager on government decisions, but his family’s involvement with these firms undermines the president’s message.”

U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) who is sponsoring legislation to ban government officials from betting on prediction markets using classified information, has raised concerns about national security risks. Chances that the bill would pass through a GOP-majority Congress are uncertain.

“It’s too politically dicey,” she said. “There is not a single important issue of the day where I don’t feel the shadow of Trump and his sons.”

Q: “People suspect that there’s insider trading happening on these prediction markets around the war. Are you concerned?”

Trump: “The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” pic.twitter.com/gESZk6GF2Z

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 23, 2026

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A Republican member of Congress is calling for death row prisoners to be hanged after the U.S. Department of Justice announced it will move to expedite death row executions, including — for the first time in federal civilian history — by adding firing squads. The DOJ also said it will readopt lethal injections.

Declaring that it has a “solemn duty to seek, obtain, and implement lawful capital sentences,” the DOJ said in a statement that it will work to clear the way for the Department to “carry out executions once death-sentenced inmates have exhausted their appeals.”

The Department called the executions critical steps “to deterring the most barbaric crimes, delivering justice for victims, and providing long-overdue closure to surviving loved ones.”

The DOJ said it “has rescinded the Biden-Garland moratorium on federal executions and has authorized seeking death sentences against 44 defendants.”

Before leaving office, President Joe Biden commuted the sentences of 37 federal death row inmates to life in prison.

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“The prior administration failed in its duty to protect the American people by refusing to pursue and carry out the ultimate punishment against the most dangerous criminals, including terrorists, child murderers, and cop killers,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Under President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Justice is once again enforcing the law and standing with victims.”

“Now do hanging,” demanded U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett, Republican of Tennessee.

Burchett last year suggested that House Republicans might offer convicted sex trafficker and Epstein partner Ghislaine Maxwell the possibility of a reduced sentence in exchange for her testimony.

In 2023, after the mass shooting deaths of three nine-year-olds and three adults at a Nashville Christian elementary school, Burchett told reporters nothing could be done.

“We’re not gonna fix it. Criminals are going to be criminals,” he told reporters.

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