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How the ‘Cutthroat’ Gerrymandering ‘Arms Race’ Is Killing Democracy: Columnist
Southern state Republicans’ quest to eliminate most of their majority-minority congressional districts in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s further destruction of the Voting Rights Act will effectively transform the House of Representatives and turn it into something akin to the Electoral College, writes The Atlantic‘s Marc Novicoff.
According to the Supreme Court’s 6–3 conservative majority opinion in Louisiana v. Callais, states can defend new aggressive gerrymandering maps by arguing their intent is partisan rather than racial.
Already, Louisiana and Alabama will be redrawing their maps, Florida already did, Tennessee might — and other red Southern states are expected to follow at some point.
“And so the gerrymandering wars, already awful, are poised to get even worse,” Novicoff writes. Democrats will respond, Republicans will respond to Democrats, and so on, but “voters will lose in the process.”
“The chamber could become something like the Electoral College,” says Novicoff. “Whoever wins a state gets all of its representatives, and the winners are there just to vote for or against the president.”
For 2028, redistricting could become far more extreme.
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“The removal of the VRA will make the arms race even more cutthroat,” Novicoff says. “Republicans could draw Democrats completely out of the delegations of Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and take another district or two in Georgia.”
Blue state Democrats are likely to follow suit.
New York, New Jersey, Colorado, and Washington have nonpartisan redistricting commissions they would have to dismantle. Oregon and Maryland do not, making redistricting even easier.
It’s “mathematically conceivable” that California, which has more GOP voters than any other state, Novicoff says, could send no Republicans to Congress. Illinois, as well, could “theoretically engineer a blue-wash.”
Then, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio and Texas could follow, scrapping all their blue districts.
“Zachary Donnini, the head of data science at VoteHub, was willing to game it out,” tentatively predicting “206 safe Republican seats and 203 safe Democratic seats.”
That would leave the nation with just 26 competitive districts out of a total of 435, Donnini calculated.
Bottom line, Novicoff says, regardless of which party wins the redistricting wars, the loser will be American democracy.
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Image: Public Domain by Architect of the Capitol via Flickr
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