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Seven Swing States Now ‘Toss-Ups’ According to Polling Analysis

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Seven swing states have been declared toss-ups, according to new analysis of political polling.

The Center for Politics updated its prediction for the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, moving North Carolina from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” joining six other states. The full list of toss-ups is North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Not counting the swing states, the Center for Politics estimates that the Democrats will likely get 226 electoral votes, with the Republicans getting 219. That leaves a total of 93 electoral votes believed to be in play.

READ MORE: GOP Reps Refusing to Join Sedition Caucus Admit Electoral College Is ‘Only Path’ for Republicans to Win White House

When it comes to the seven swing states the Center for Politics listed, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all have Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead — by between 1.3% and 4%. Former president Donald Trump is leading in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, by margins of 0.4% to 1.4%, according to 270toWin.com.

If the election breaks out along 270toWin’s current polling for these seven states, that would put Harris in the lead, picking up 55 of the remaining electoral votes, compared to just 38 additional electoral votes for Trump.

In 2020, Biden won six of these seven states, with North Carolina going to Trump. As the polling may suggest, these were by thin margins. Trump won North Carolina by 1.34%, and Biden won the other states by a range of 0.23% to 2.78%. Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin all had Biden win by less that 1 percentage point.

The reason why presidential elections usually fall to the swing states is due to the Electoral College. Each state is given a number of electoral votes based its number of senators and representatives, with all states having at least three. This gives smaller states a bit more power in choosing the president at the expense of larger ones.

Critics of the Electoral College system say this means that voters in larger states have less of a say in the presidential race.

“The fact that in presidential elections people in Wyoming have [nearly four] times the power of people in California is antithetical at the most basic level to what we say we stand for as a democracy,” Harvard University political scientist Gautam Mukunda told NPR in 2021.

Abolishing the Electoral College could prove difficult, however. As it’s enshrined in the Constitution, it would require a constitutional amendment to throw it out. An amendment needs to be passed by a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress, but three-quarters of states also need to ratify it. Since that would include a number of the smaller states which have outsized power in the Electoral College, that’s unlikely to happen.

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‘Lame Duck’ Trump Loses Major Battle in Indiana: ‘Not Even Close to Being Close’

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President Donald Trump’s efforts to compel Indiana lawmakers to enact a mid-decade congressional map that could have wiped out all of the Hoosier State’s Democratic seats in the U.S. House of Representatives has failed.

“Republicans hold a 40-10 advantage in the state Senate but still rejected Trump’s pressure,” The Washington Post reported. HuffPost called it a “a furious pressure campaign by Trump.”

“Indiana’s proposed congressional map goes down in flames in the state Senate, 31-19,” Votebeat managing editor Nathaniel Rakich observed. 26 votes were needed for the new maps to have been adopted.

Politico reported that the “failed vote is the culmination of a brass-knuckled four-month pressure campaign from the White House on recalcitrant Indiana Republicans that included private meetings and public shaming from Trump, multiple visits from Vice President JD Vance, whip calls from Speaker Mike Johnson and veiled threats of withheld federal funds.

RELATED: ‘Shakedown’: Outrage Over Claim of Trump Plan to Defund Indiana in Map Clash

“Not even close to being close,” noted Bloomberg Government’s Jonathan Tamari. “I certainly did not predict the Indiana state Senate as a hotbed of Trump resistance.”

“Trump’s such a lame duck that he is getting his a– kicked by the Indiana State Senate,” remarked former Obama senior advisor Dan Pfeiffer.

Journalist Todd Zwillich called it a “Wholesale rejection” of a “threat” from the conservative Heritage Action.

Aaron Fritschner, deputy chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), noted that Trump “didn’t just lose that vote, he got blown out.”

Lesson for national Republicans,” wrote Jessica Riedel of the Brookings Institution. “You don’t have to sell out every principle and publicly worship Trump. Really, you can just do things. And you should ask why it took some state legislators in Indiana to finally stand up for common sense governance.”

You do, unironically and in earnest, have to hand it to the Indiana GOP for not giving in to the threats on their lives etc.,” declared Everytown Senior Director of Communications Max Steele. “Trump is a duck getting lamer by the day. Hopefully this emboldens others to do what’s right.”

READ MORE: ‘Where Is Antifa Headquartered?’: FBI Official Struggles Defending Top Threat Label

 

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‘Shakedown’: Outrage Over Claim of Trump Plan to Defund Indiana in Map Clash

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Heritage Action and President Donald Trump are coming under fire after the conservative advocacy organization made a claim that the president threatened to defund the state of Indiana should lawmakers not pass legislation to redraw its congressional district maps.

“President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders: if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state,” Heritage Action wrote on social media on Thursday. “Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes and every NO vote will be to blame.”

The post ended with, “#PassTheMap.”

While President Trump has publicly threatened to support primary challengers against lawmakers who oppose his redistricting push, NCRM has not found any news reports confirming Heritage Action’s assertion. It is possible the group is relying on information that has not been reported or made public.

READ MORE: ‘Where Is Antifa Headquartered?’: FBI Official Struggles Defending Top Threat Label

Should Indiana pass legislation to redistrict, it reportedly could pick up only two more GOP-held seats.

Critics blasted Heritage Action, a sister group to the Heritage Foundation, for appearing to support Trump’s alleged threat, and blasted the president as well.

“The president and one of the most influential conservative groups in the country are threatening to deprive all Indiana residents of paved roads, guard bases, and major projects if they don’t pass an extremely gerrymandered map to deprive voters of choice,” noted Isaac Saul, founder of Tangle News. “Awesome stuff.”

“Heritage sure loves authoritarianism,” remarked Media Matters researcher Zachary Pleat.

Calling it “nonsense,” Joel Griffith, a senior fellow at the conservative group Advancing American Freedom wrote: “Appalling to see @Heritage_Action endorse this unconstitutional threat by @realDonaldTrump. The President does not have power to coerce state legislators to redraw congressional maps.”

Others appeared to aim their ire directly at the president.

READ MORE: ‘Shaky’ House GOP Leadership ‘Losing Control’: Report

“This is the behavior of a madman,” declared Tim Carney, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

“This isn’t conservative. This is fascist,” commented former Republican U.S. Congressman Joe Walsh.

Mother Jones’ D.C. bureau chief David Corn declared the move “dictatorial.”

“This does not sound like an appropriate or legal use of federal authority or presidential discretion,” observed Bloomberg columnist Matthew Yglesias.

“Nothing about this shakedown is conservative,” noted CNN’s Jake Tapper.

Jacob Stewart, the deputy opinion editor for the IndyStar called the move “illegal.”

Jonah Goldberg, editor-in-chief of the conservative online magazine The Dispatch, wrote: “I remember when Heritage cared about federalism, the rule of law, separation of powers, and all that stuff. Now it’s all ‘We love Trump’s musk, do what he says (or what Tucker says).'”

“This is called extortion,” wrote former White House correspondent Sam Youngman, also deeming it “illegal.”

“If this comes to pass,” wrote IndyStar columnist James Briggs, “then the story will be that Trump is punishing Indiana citizens for reasons that have nothing to do with them and so-called Indianans will see the punitive measures for what they are.”

READ MORE: ‘You’re a Loser Dude’: Carville Scorches Trump as ‘Done’

 

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‘Where Is Antifa Headquartered?’: FBI Official Struggles Defending Top Threat Label

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A top FBI official struggled to explain his claim that Antifa is the “most immediate violent threat” America is facing, as he was challenged to provide details.

Former Trump FBI Director Christopher Wray stated in 2020 congressional testimony that Antifa is “not a group or an organization. It’s a movement or an ideology.” The BBC has explained that Antifa is “a loosely organized, leftist movement that opposes far-right, racist and fascist groups.”

“Antifa is short for anti-fascist,” BBC added. “It is a loose, leaderless affiliation of mostly far-left activists.”

House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Bennie Thompson on Thursday asked Michael Glasheen, FBI National Security Operations Director, to describe “organizations that pose, on the domestic side,” the number one and number two threats to the homeland.

READ MORE: ‘Shaky’ House GOP Leadership ‘Losing Control’: Report

Glasheen asked for clarification.

“Any domestic terrorist organizations that poses a threat to the homeland as we speak,” Thompson replied.

Pointing to President Trump’s designation of Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization, Glasheen said, “That’s our primary concern right now.”

He described Antifa as “the most immediate violent threat that we’re facing on the domestic side.”

“So, where is the Antifa headquartered?” Thompson pressed.

After a pause, Glasheen said: “What we’re doing right now —” before Thompson cut him off.

“Where, in the United States, does Antifa exist?” he asked. “If it’s a terrorist organization — and you’ve identified it as number one.”

“We are building out the infrastructure right now,” Glasheen responded.

READ MORE: ‘You’re a Loser Dude’: Carville Scorches Trump as ‘Done’

“So what does that mean?” Thompson pressed. “Where do they exist? How many members do they have in the United States as of right now?”

“Well, that’s very fluid,” Glasheen said, describing it as “ongoing,” before comparing the situation to Al Qaeda and ISIS.

“I asked one question, sir,” Thompson replied. “I just want you to tell us. If you said Antifa is the number one domestic terrorist organization, operating in the United States, I just need to know where they are, how many people. I don’t want a name. I don’t want anything like that. Just, how many people have you identified with the FBI, that Antifa is made of?”

“Well, the investigations are active,” Glasheen replied.

“Sir, you wouldn’t come to this committee and say something you can’t prove. I know. I knew you wouldn’t do that. But you did.”

READ MORE: ‘His Heart Just Ain’t in It’: Report Reveals Trump’s ‘Achilles Heel’

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