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Seven Swing States Now ‘Toss-Ups’ According to Polling Analysis

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Seven swing states have been declared toss-ups, according to new analysis of political polling.

The Center for Politics updated its prediction for the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, moving North Carolina from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” joining six other states. The full list of toss-ups is North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Not counting the swing states, the Center for Politics estimates that the Democrats will likely get 226 electoral votes, with the Republicans getting 219. That leaves a total of 93 electoral votes believed to be in play.

READ MORE: GOP Reps Refusing to Join Sedition Caucus Admit Electoral College Is ‘Only Path’ for Republicans to Win White House

When it comes to the seven swing states the Center for Politics listed, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all have Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead — by between 1.3% and 4%. Former president Donald Trump is leading in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, by margins of 0.4% to 1.4%, according to 270toWin.com.

If the election breaks out along 270toWin’s current polling for these seven states, that would put Harris in the lead, picking up 55 of the remaining electoral votes, compared to just 38 additional electoral votes for Trump.

In 2020, Biden won six of these seven states, with North Carolina going to Trump. As the polling may suggest, these were by thin margins. Trump won North Carolina by 1.34%, and Biden won the other states by a range of 0.23% to 2.78%. Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin all had Biden win by less that 1 percentage point.

The reason why presidential elections usually fall to the swing states is due to the Electoral College. Each state is given a number of electoral votes based its number of senators and representatives, with all states having at least three. This gives smaller states a bit more power in choosing the president at the expense of larger ones.

Critics of the Electoral College system say this means that voters in larger states have less of a say in the presidential race.

“The fact that in presidential elections people in Wyoming have [nearly four] times the power of people in California is antithetical at the most basic level to what we say we stand for as a democracy,” Harvard University political scientist Gautam Mukunda told NPR in 2021.

Abolishing the Electoral College could prove difficult, however. As it’s enshrined in the Constitution, it would require a constitutional amendment to throw it out. An amendment needs to be passed by a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress, but three-quarters of states also need to ratify it. Since that would include a number of the smaller states which have outsized power in the Electoral College, that’s unlikely to happen.

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Ghislaine Maxwell to Request to Be Freed From Prison

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Ghislaine Maxwell, the convicted child sex offender and associate of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, has filed court documents seeking to be released from prison, reportedly “throwing a wrench” into the Justice Department’s efforts to release “scores” of files released to her case.

“Lawyers for Ghislaine Maxwell, the longtime Epstein counterpart, wrote in a letter filed Wednesday in federal court that she plans to soon file a court petition challenging her detention, a long-shot bid that, if successful, could result in a new trial,” The Hill reported.

Maxwell’s attorneys “said Maxwell does not take a position on the government’s request to unseal grand jury transcripts,” but, “to do so could imperil a retrial if her challenge, called a habeas petition, prevails.”

The New York Times added, “Although the judge, Paul A. Engelmayer, previously denied a request by the Justice Department to release those documents, Ms. Bondi made her latest motion under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which was signed by Mr. Trump last month.”

According to CNN, “lawyers for Epstein’s estate told the judge they do not take a position as to the unsealing of records given the government’s ‘commitment’ to redacting victim and personally identifying information.”

READ MORE: Trump Urges Judge Aileen Cannon to Keep Jack Smith Report Secret

 

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Johnson Slammed After Timeline to Swear In Newest GOP Member Revealed

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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is coming under fire after a report revealed he expects to swear in this week the newest Republican elected to Congress, Matt Van Epps, for whom Johnson campaigned. Van Epps won a narrow victory Tuesday night in a deep red Tennessee district. The move comes after Johnson most recently delayed seating Democratic U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva of Arizona for 50 days.

Johnson offered an array of explanations for why he would not swear in Congresswoman Grijalva, who won her September election for a seat vacant since March but was not seated until November.

Among his reasons were that the House was not in session, there was a federal government shutdown, and her election had to be officially certified. Critics noted that other members-elect had been sworn in under similar circumstances.

READ MORE: Trump Urges Judge Aileen Cannon to Keep Jack Smith Report Secret

In October, The Guardian reported that Grijalva “thinks she knows the reason why Johnson is in no rush to administer the oath: in addition to co-sponsoring bills on the environment, public education and other issues she campaigned on addressing, Grijalva plans to provide the final signature on a petition that would force a vote on legislation to release files related to accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein – which the speaker and Donald Trump oppose.”

Now, critics are blasting Johnson, after Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman reported on the Speaker’s expected timeline.

READ MORE: Trump Overrules Johnson in Dramatic GOP Showdown

“I was led to believe that waiting almost two months was customary and totally normal,” snarked Robbie Sherwood, communications director of the Arizona House Democratic Caucus.

“Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, the last member had to wait 50 days,” observed political commentator Molly Jong-Fast.

“Oh so he can just swear anyone in immediately if he feels like it,” noted Hemant Mehta, who writes the Friendly Atheist on Substack.

“Guess the speed of democracy depends on who you voted for and what they look like,” charged Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko.

READ MORE: Amid Johnson’s ‘Exodus Problem’ One House Republican Declares ‘Fresh Blood Is Good’

 

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Amid Johnson’s ‘Exodus Problem’ One House Republican Declares ‘Fresh Blood Is Good’

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After Democrats’ strong showing in Tuesday’s deep-red Tennessee special election — losing by single digits in a district Trump won by 22 points — political pundits and anonymous Republican lawmakers have begun predicting a large GOP exodus from the House of Representatives after the winter break.

Already, Speaker Johnson has a razor-thin margin, and numerous Republicans, like U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, have announced their retirement.

“More than two dozen GOP lawmakers have already announced their decision to leave their seats at the end of the term, and the number is expected to grow in the coming weeks as lawmakers visit their families for the holidays, complicating Republican efforts to fend off a blue wave and keep their slim majority,” The Hill reported on Wednesday.

READ MORE: Trump Overrules Johnson in Dramatic GOP Showdown

According to the House Press Gallery, 24 Republicans have announced they are retiring or seeking another office.

“Ultimately, the number of Republican retirements that we see compared to 2018 — I would imagine it would be close to the same number when all is said and done,” Erin Covey, House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told The Hill. The news outlet noted that in 2018, “Republicans got clobbered.”

“Overall,” The Hill added, “34 House Republicans chose not to seek reelection and 14 had resigned during their term in the 2018 cycle. Democrats ended up winning control of the House that year.”

Some have suggested that Speaker Johnson could lose his gavel before the end of this Congress if Republicans continue to resign.

Reasons for leaving Congress are myriad. Some, like U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX), the former White House Physician to the President, “noted many of his fellow colleagues he knows are stepping away to spend more time with their families.”

READ MORE: Trump Urges Judge Aileen Cannon to Keep Jack Smith Report Secret

U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) told the Hill that House Republicans are “consigned to be automatons.”

“They just have to do whatever Trump wants them to do. What fun is that, if you’re an adult?” he asked.

But one House Republican has a different take on what The Hill is calling House Republicans’ “exodus problem.”

U.S. Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL), who just took office in April, welcomes the expected changes to the GOP conference.

“Fresh blood is good,” he told The Hill. “I don’t think people serving for 50 years is a great thing, so I think turnover is a good thing.”

READ MORE: Trump Seen Struggling to Stay Awake Repeatedly in Cabinet Meeting Video

 

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