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ANALYSIS

MSNBC’s Morning Joe Breaks Down Why GOP’s California Recall Failure Spells Great News for Dems in 2022

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MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said the results of California’s failed recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom should be seen as good news for Democrats heading into next year’s congressional midterm elections.

The county-by-county results largely mirrored Democratic wins in last year’s presidential election, and the “Morning Joe” host said they should take comfort in those numbers ahead of the 2022 voting.

“Here we have an off-year election in September, when kids are going back to school,” Scarborough said. “This is a race that is set up for a surprise like we saw in 2009, when the race for [Sen.] Ted Kennedy’s replacement shocked the world and went Republican. If i’m a Democrat and looking at this map, and it’s basically an overlay of the 2020 election, a presidential year election where Democrats usually do better, where the turnout expands where you’re running against Donald Trump, I’m liking, if I’m a Democrat, I’m liking very much what I’m seeing this morning.”

“I would wait to see how the numbers were in Orange County, and look at the swing districts the Democrats could pick up in 2022 and overlay those numbers,” he added. “For me, I’m sure Republicans may look at this differently. For me, this is a really big win for Democrats in terms of a report card nine months in. A lot of bad things happening on the national level, you look at right now with Afghanistan, you look at Joe Biden’s numbers down, again, the fact that when people went to polls and this sort of race, and the fact that Democrats held their own, I would mark that down as a really big win were I a Democrat trying to plan ahead for 2022.”

Some of the dynamics that broke Democratic in the recall effort will likely play a major role in the midterms, as well.

“I also want to look at some of the things that drove the election Newsom’s way, and let’s see on that point, let’s talk about the exit poll and COVID,” Scarborough said. “My theory of the case has been run over the 33 percent politically, run over the 30 percent politically, like Republicans did in Texas on the abortion law, running over the 70 percent, actually. If you’re Gavin Newsom, and you want to win then go where most people go on COVID, on whether it’s the vaccination or masks, do what is right and don’t listen to the 30 percent that are getting their news from Facebook.”

 

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ANALYSIS

‘Basically Game Over’: Legal Experts Say SCOTUS Likely to Gut Abortion – and There’s a ‘Lot More on the Chopping Block’

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Legal experts are weighing in after listening to Wednesday morning’s Supreme Court oral arguments on abortion, and they’re almost entirely certain the 6-3 conservative majority will gut Roe v. Wade – the only question is how much.

Bloomberg News Supreme Court reporter says there’s no question that the Supreme Court “seem poised to slash abortion rights” and maybe worse.

Slate’s legal expert Mark Joseph Stern predicts that, in his opinion, basically by the end of next year – six months after the Supreme Court hands down its decision in today’s case – half the states across the country will have abortion bans in place.

To those who say women can just travel to a state that doesn’t ban abortion, University of California, Irvine School of Law law and political science professor and election law expert Rick Hasen offers this question:

And Hasen made clear it won’t stop there.

He says, “it won’t end with overturning Roe and allowing guns outside the home. There’s a lot more on the chopping block coming in terms of voting rights, LGBTQ rights, environmental protection, immigration, and more. Decades of work by the conservative legal movement is paying off.”

NYU law professor Melissa Murray agrees it’s not just about abortion.

Stern observes this one “question from Amy Coney Barrett is basically game over for Roe.” The far right wing faith-based justice says now that women can simply give up a child for adoption after giving birth means there’s no reason to not ban abortion.

 

 

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ANALYSIS

Legal Jeopardy Is Far From Over for Kyle Rittenhouse – Here’s Why

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Appearing on MSNBC on Saturday morning, less than 24 hours after a jury in Wisconsin found Kyle Rittenhouse not guilty after shooting and killing two Black Lives Matter protesters, a former New York prosecutor suggested that families of the victims could file civil suits with an expectation of success.

Speaking with host Kendis Gibson, Charles Coleman said it would be up to the families if they want to pursue Rittenhouse further.

“Charles, the criminal case is over, but could Rittenhouse still face anything civilly, any civil penalties?” host Gibson asked.

“He could,” the attorney conceded. “I don’t know how likely it is, but it is very possible. I think that the outcome of this criminal case certainly gives the chance of a civil case some degree of difficulty in terms of being able to get a liability verdict in civil court but it’s important that viewers understand that the standard for a civil case is much lower in terms of the standard of proof than it is for a criminal case.”

“A criminal case requires that it is beyond a reasonable doubt,” he elaborated. “Whereas a civil case requires that it is beyond a preponderance of the evidence, which is basically 50.0001% of being able to prove or establish liability. With a lower bar perhaps it may be that plaintiffs decide that they want to try to sue for wrongful death, or some other sort of injury, and make Kyle Rittenhouse responsible — that remains to be seen at this point.”

Watch below:

 

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ANALYSIS

‘This Is the Rule of Law Striking Back’: Legal Experts Cheer DOJ’s Bannon Indictment

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Steve Bannon’s Friday afternoon indictment by a grand jury is being heralded by legal experts. The former Trump advisor faces two counts of criminal contempt of Congress for refusing to testify before the Select Committee on the January 6 Attack and for refusing to hand over documents to House investigators.

“Good news for the rule of law, and the institution of Congress,” NYU Law professor Ryan Goodman, a former Defense Dept. Special Counsel tweeted.

This is the first time in nearly four decades anyone has been indicted for criminal contempt of Congress. Bannon faces up to two years in jail should a jury convict him.

“This is the rule of law striking back,”  U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) said on MSNBC in response to the news. “Mark Meadows: Call your office.”

Tristan Snell, who successfully prosecuted the State of New York’s case against Trump University, warns Bannon is a flight risk:

He adds:

Top national security lawyer Bradley Moss had a three-pronged response to the news.

First, he scolded those who complained Attorney General Merrick Garland and DOJ were not moving fast enough: “What did I say? I said give Garland time. I said stop whining like little children. All of you can get on your knees and apologize now for weeks of incessant juvenile antics.”

Then he also took a swipe at Bannon and other Trump acolytes: “Who else wants to go to jail for Donald Trump?”

And finally, he mocked Bannon’s infamous wardrobe, asking if the Federal Bureau of Prisons will issue “five layered clothing.”

Vox senior correspondent Ian Millhiser, author of books on the Supreme Court:

LA Times Legal Affairs Columnist Harry Litman, a former U.S. Attorney:

 

 

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