ANALYSIS
Will McConnell and Senate Republicans Use Feinstein’s Passing to Grind Biden’s Judicial Confirmations to a Halt?
The passing of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat who served the people of California since 1970 in numerous roles, first at the local level, then as a Senator and Chair of powerful Committees, raises many questions about the future, including: What will Republicans, and especially Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, do? Will Democrats be able to replace her on the Senate’s powerful Judiciary Committee and Rules Committee?
Senator Feinstein’s role on the Judiciary Committee for much of this year has been in the news, largely due to her ill health. Some have said the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and on the Judiciary Committee prevented her from resigning.
There are more Republicans in the Senate (49) than Democrats (48, until Feinstein’s passing), but the three independents who generally vote with Democrats gave them a 51 vote “majority,” with the Senate President, Vice President Kamala Harris, casting the tie-breaking vote 31 times, as of July. Her 31st tie-breaking vote is matched only by one other Vice President, who also cast a total of 31 tie-breaking votes.
What happens now?
Does President Biden’s historic pace of appointing judges – more than the last three presidents at this point in their tenure, end, at least until 2025? As of July, President Biden has nominated and had confirmed more Black women judges (13) than all other U.S. President combined, and placed on the federal bench 44 Black judges in total. Does than also grind to a halt? He has placed on the federal bench at least 27 Hispanic judges. Earlier this year President Biden nominated two more Hispanic women judges. UC Santa Barbara’s The American Presidency Project noted, “if both are confirmed, President Biden will have confirmed more Latina circuit judges than any President in history.” It also noted, Biden “has nominated 27 AA and NHPI individuals to federal judgeships and 20 have been confirmed. This includes six AA and NHPI circuit court judges.”
And what happens if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice dies or retires?
In April, PBS NewsHour reported, “Republicans blocked a Democratic request to temporarily replace California Sen. Dianne Feinstein on the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday, leaving Democrats with few options for moving some of President Joe Biden’s stalled judicial nominees.”
“South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, objected to a resolution offered by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that would have allowed another senator to take Feinstein’s place on the panel while the Democrat recuperates from a case of shingles. Republicans have argued that Democrats only want a stand-in to push through the most partisan judges, noting that many of Biden’s nominees have bipartisan support and can move to the Senate floor for a vote.”
Minority Leader McConnell also made clear his objections at the time.
“’Let’s be clear,’ said McConnell in remarks on the Senate floor. ‘Senate Republicans will not take part in sidelining a temporarily absent colleague off a committee just so Democrats can force through their very worst nominees.'”
Given McConnell’s history, including refusing to even allow then-President Barack Obama’s nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court to get a confirmation hearing, much less an up-or-down vote, it might seem unlikely he will allow Senator Feinstein to be replaced on any Committee.
But, NewsHour’s April reporting may now give Democrats some hope.
“If Feinstein were to resign immediately, the process would be much easier for Democrats, since California Gov. Gavin Newsom would appoint a replacement. The Senate regularly approves committee assignments for new senators after their predecessors have resigned or died. But a temporary replacement due to illness is a rare, if not unprecedented, request.”
Sen. Feinstein also served on several powerful Committees, including Intelligence, Appropriations, and especially the Rules Committee.
Will Republicans allow Senator Feinstein’s replacement to serve on Judiciary, and the other Committees as well?
California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom “must now appoint someone to the U.S. Senate ahead of next year’s election. He has long said he would appoint a Black woman if Feinstein did not finish her term, but he recently specified on ‘Meet the Press’ that he would do so as an ‘interim appointment,'” The San Francisco Chronicle reported Friday. “Only one of the top three candidates to replace Feinstein, Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland, is a Black woman. Polls have shown Lee trailing two opponents, Reps. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, and Adam Schiff, D-Burbank.”
“Republicans have said they would block Democrats from replacing Feinstein on the committee, which must approve President Biden’s judicial nominees,” The Chronicle added. “Newsom has said that without her, Democrats — losing their committee majority — might not be able to get any more federal judges through Congress this term.”
“’I have to remind my friends and progressive colleagues,’ Newsom told reporters last month, ‘if she does resign and the governor, I guess me, appoints someone, we may not get another federal judge out of the Judiciary Committee.’”
Some experts disagree with “conventional wisdom.”
“The claim that Republicans can and will block DiFi’s [Senator Feinstein’s] replacement on the Senate Judiciary Committee was pulled out of thin air by Democrats seeking a pretext to defend her refusal to retire. It is almost certainly false, and it’s irresponsible to promote this claim as a certainty,” Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern, who writes about the courts and the law, said Friday.
“Democrats confirmed nearly 100 Biden judges with an evenly divided SJC [Senate Judiciary Committee],” Stern adds. “It just takes somewhat longer.”
Politico on Friday reported, “Democrats will need 60 votes to appoint a senator to fill Feinstein’s role on the Judiciary panel, meaning at least 10 Republicans would need to vote in favor of filling Democrats’ majority on the panel, assuming they move to do so before someone is appointed to the California Senate seat.”
“Senators are typically assigned to committees by unanimous consent, but such orders are subject to debate and can be filibustered. Republican senators could slow, or stop, Democrats from filling the Judiciary roster,” Politico added. “The panel, under Democratic control, has been advancing scores of judicial nominations that Republicans object to. Leaving the panel short one Democratic vote would hamper the majority’s steady confirmation of President Joe Biden’s nominees.”
Back in June, amid clamor from some progressives for Sen. Feinstein to step down, U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) warned, “The fact is simple: if Senator Feinstein resigns, Mitch McConnell gets to decide whether Democrats have a Senate Judiciary majority.”
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President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity is taking a toll on Republican candidates, with once-solidly-red states showing deepening blue cracks as his Iran war, gas and food prices, inflation, and overall economic uncertainty take hold of voters.
The signs have been there: the massive “No Kings” protests, the breaks by once-devout MAGA allies, Fox News acknowledging that Trump is “underwater” with voters, the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress, historically low consumer sentiment, and, of course, the polls.
Trump’s approval rating has been characterized as lower than any modern-day president’s at this point in their term.
According to The Economist, Trump’s approval rating is at 37 percent, and his disapproval rating is at 56 percent. That’s a net negative of 19 points.
It’s worse in the red state of Georgia, where Trump is 23 points underwater.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, 56 percent of voters in the Peach State disapprove of Trump’s handling of rising gas prices. 57 percent say the money spent on his Iran war is contributing to higher prices and uncertainty. And 53 percent disapprove of his handling of the Iran war.
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The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor reports that they have just moved the Georgia Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.
“Some of this is outside of GOP candidates’ control,” Taylor writes, “and Trump is hurting them so much right now on Iran/gas prices when voters uniformly say their top worry is the economy.”
She also reports that Cook Political has moved three other Senate races toward the Democrats: North Carolina (Toss Up to Lean Democratic), Ohio (Lean Republican to Toss Up), and Nebraska (Solid Republican to Lean Republican).
“Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup – just short of 4 they need” to take control of the Senate majority, Taylor writes.
Democrats have high hopes in other states as well, including Alaska, where Trump is 12 points underwater; Maine, where he is 25 points underwater; and Texas, where he is 19 points underwater.
And Iowa, where Trump is underwater by 14 points, according to The Economist.
“Iowa looks to be seriously in play for Democrats in November up and down the ballot, according to a new survey from a Democratic group that backs moderate candidates,” Politico reports.
Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Randy Feenstra in the Iowa governor’s race — by eight points, while Republicans hold “slim leads” in the Senate race.
The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund is expected to pour millions into Iowa, “making it one of five GOP-held states where they’ve made a major investment as they fight to keep the majority.”
Former Obama official Tommy Vietor notes that “Iowa really does look competitive this year. It’s a combination of Trump fatigue, economy/inflation, and tariffs crushing farmers. Dem pickup opportunities include: Governor, US Senate, three House races (dream big and its all four), and its WAY cheaper than other states.”
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Image via Reuters
Fox News has published a striking assessment of President Donald Trump’s political standing ahead of the midterms.
In a Friday article about the president’s firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi, the conservative outlet reported that other Cabinet officials could also be on the “chopping block” — and offered a blunt assessment: Trump is “saddled with underwater approval ratings and an unpopular war ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections, when Republicans are working to hold onto their slim House and Senate majorities.”
Last month, Fox News acknowledged that the Republican Party is “underwater” with voters, while reporting that Democrats had sunk to a “new low.” Fox News rarely applies the term “underwater” to Republicans, a search of the outlet’s website revealed.
On Wednesday, Fox News reported that “polls indicate” the war in Iran is “unpopular with many Americans, and a surge in gas prices as a direct result of the fighting have triggered a further slide in Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys.”
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That report noted at the top that “Trump stands at 41% approval and 59% disapproval in the most recent Fox News national poll.”
“The political implications are clear,” the report added. “The strikes on Iran and the erosion of the president’s approval ratings are warning signs for the GOP as Republicans ramp up to defend their slim House and Senate majorities in this autumn’s midterm elections.”
It also added that “Trump’s base remains extremely supportive of the president and the war,” and that “much of the slippage” is coming from “non-MAGA Republicans.”
Friday’s blunt Fox News language comes one day after Mediaite’s Colby Hall wrote an opinion piece about the Fox News channel, titled: “Fox News Viewers Have No Clue Trump’s Approval Rating Has Cratered.”
“President Donald Trump is currently enduring the most significant and sustained approval rating decline of his presidency, and the most-watched news network in America is virtually ignoring it,” Hall wrote.
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Image via Reuters
House Republicans have inserted anti-LGBTQ language into a $66 billion must-pass funding bill for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, effectively granting civil immunity under federal law to individuals and organizations that discriminate against same-sex couples—by citing a religious or moral belief that marriage should be limited to one man and one woman. It also bans the federal government from taking a range of actions against those who hold and act on anti-same-sex marriage beliefs.
Section 544 bans the use of federal funds to take any “discriminatory action” against someone who cites their “sincerely held religious belief” or “moral conviction” that marriage is only “a union of one man and one woman.”
A portion of the provision exactly matches language U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) urged the House Appropriations Committee to include in 2023 legislation. Rep. Roy cited praise from anti-LGBTQ hate group leader Tony Perkins and other anti-LGBTQ activists in his press release urging inclusion of the amendment in a 2023 bill. It is not known who drafted or approved the current 2025 provision.
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Journalist Jamie Dupree, who writes Regular Order at Substack, first reported on the provision in the DHS funding bill.
The language could prohibit the government from withholding federal funds from a federally-funded religious school that fired a teacher who supports same-sex marriage. It could block the IRS from revoking the tax-exempt status of organizations that promote the belief that marriage is only between one man and one woman. It could ban the federal government from taking action against a hospital that receives federal funds if it refused certain services in some cases.
While the language is not found in The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, some of the core principles in Section 544 echo its recommendations.
Project 2025 calls on the federal government to “Protect faith-based grant recipients from religious liberty violations and maintain a biblically based, social science–reinforced definition of marriage and family,” and “Provide robust protections for religious employers,” while it denounces “the bullying LGBTQ+ agenda.”
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Image via Shutterstock
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