ANALYSIS
Experts Are Not Buying Trump’s Claim for Why He Called Off Strike on Iran in Mid-Air

“These are not strategically sophisticated people”
Many agree President Donald Trump made the right call when he called off the strike on Iran, in retaliation for their downing of a $130 million unarmed, unmanned U.S. Military surveillance drone.
But he is the one who ordered the strike in the first place, so there’s no “credit” there.
Friday morning the President took to Twitter to defend his actions, saying he stopped the assault 10 minutes before the actual strike was about to happen.
Why?
“I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General.”
….proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 21, 2019
(The drone was actually downed early Thursday morning, not Monday.)
Many are asking, how was this not a part of the decision-making process before he gave the order to strike?
Others just point-blank don’t believe it wasn’t.
One, a CNN political analyst, says there’s a lot of speculation it was Fox News’ Tucker Carlson’s comments that led Trump to back off – Carlson advised against the strike.
Lot of officials speculating today Trump called off the Iran strike literally while watching Tucker Carlson.
— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) June 21, 2019
Here’s what some others are saying.
Contributor to The Nation:
Does anyone believe that the military didn’t brief him on projected casualties until he asked them 10 minutes before the strikes?
If not, then why buy any of it? Guy’s a serial liar surrounded by equally mendacious sycophants.
— Joshua Holland 🔥 (@JoshuaHol) June 21, 2019
CNN national security analyst:
1/ This is one time when the President’s indecision may have saved thousands of lives. But having been part of military CONOPs briefings, they always include an assessment of casualties on both sides at the front end.
— Sam Vinograd (@sam_vinograd) June 21, 2019
NY Times White House correspondent who co-authored the story about Trump calling off the strike in mid-air:
A source told me 30 minutes ago that Trump was pleased with his own performance last night, loved being in command by ordering the strikes and by then ordering the stand-down. And the president just… tweeted it. https://t.co/tUPSym7inn
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) June 21, 2019
Former Special Counsel at the Dept. of Defense:
This explanation doesn’t smell right.👇
The assessments of casualties would have been prepared, known, and discussed long in advance (part of the “CONOP”)
Is Trump saying he asked that question of the General only after authorizing the strike, and when US planes were en route? pic.twitter.com/z6DyNSwKVz
— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) June 21, 2019
CNN Chief National Security Correspondent:
The president revealed the number and type of Iranian target the US was going to hit and the exact US estimate of Iranian casualties. Did he reveal normally classified information?
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 21, 2019
Former Postdoctoral Research Fellow at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and at the University of Pennsylvania, focused on international security and foreign policy, and emerging technologies and urban warfare:
These are not strategically sophisticated people. They don’t understand or care about how signaling to foreign powers works, if they did, we’d see consistency, minimal uniformity of msg, resolve, and/or directionality of some kind. 2/
— Rita Konaev (@RitaKonaev) June 21, 2019
Again. Very nice or very unfair TO HIM. Not the country, not the people, not his supporters, not his party, not his cabinet. HIM or anything he sees as an extension of himself, such as his brand, financial interests, business acumen, ratings and maybe sometimes his children. 4/
— Rita Konaev (@RitaKonaev) June 21, 2019
We have to see this administration and President for what they are, not for what our theories say they should be. 6/6
— Rita Konaev (@RitaKonaev) June 21, 2019
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