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How MAGA’s Rise Could Cost the GOP in Future Elections: Report
President Donald Trump’s rapid transformation of the GOP into a majority-MAGA base may end up costing the Republican Party in future elections, according to a new report.
In just four years, then share of Republicans who identify as MAGA — “Make America Great Again,” Trump’s political slogan — has jumped from 38 percent to 62 percent, according to YouGov/Economist surveys.
“It’s a change that has occurred with remarkable speed,” Brookings Institution senior fellows Elaine Kamarck and E.J. Dionne Jr. wrote in a new analysis, The Independent reports.
As Trump tightens his grip on the party, non-MAGA Republicans are increasingly becoming opposed to MAGA’s positions on some key issues and appear to be more in line with America’s independents. While non-MAGA Republicans now comprise a minority of the GOP, they represent a share that “will play a crucial role in determining the GOP’s future” — and could swing the vote in future elections.
“A clear majority of his party wants him in charge,” the report’s authors write, “but the tighter his grip becomes, the farther he drifts from the rest of the country.” And non-MAGA Republicans are increasingly “unwilling to cede the GOP to Trump,” as they grow “steadily more rebellious.”
“That could prove costly in future elections as the nation, overall, is evenly split between the two parties,” The Independent observes. “Seeing other Republicans vote more like independents or Democrats could swing elections in that party’s favor. Democrats could also benefit if non-MAGA Republicans also skip voting and drag down turnout numbers.”
There are some stark contrasts on policy and beliefs between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans.
On the economy, for example, YouGov found that just 18 percent of MAGA Republicans say the economy is worsening. For non-MAGA Republicans, it’s 65 percent — in keeping with the 67 percent of independents who also see the country on the wrong track.
And on Trump’s Iran war, 83 percent of MAGA Republicans support the president’s efforts — but less than half, just 43 percent, of non-MAGA Republicans, do. When it comes to the Epstein files, The Independent notes, just 5 percent of MAGA Republicans believe Trump was involved with the convicted sex offender’s crimes — but 29 percent of non-MAGA Republicans say he was.
“The widespread disillusionment of non-MAGA Republicans presents the party with a serious mobilization challenge this fall,” the authors conclude, according to The Independent. “Trump has converted most of the GOP to his way. But those he has not brought along are increasingly restive; they can abandon their party or simply stay home. We’ll know in November.”
Image via Shutterstock
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