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Nate Silver Just Released His Latest Senate Forecast

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Nate Silver, the statistician so accurate he predicted every state but one correctly in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, just published his latest Senate forecast…

Optimists are going to have to work a lot harder over the next few days – and years.

Uber-accurate statistician Nate Silver says Republican chances of taking over the Senate have never been higher this year.

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“The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, its highest figure of the year,” writes Silver, who apparently was up all night crunching numbers.

And meet your new (likely) Senate Majority Leader.

Silver writes, “we have a clearer story in Kentucky. It’s one that probably ends in a victory for McConnell, whose chances of winning are up to 87 percent.”

Republicans need six seats overall to take the Senate, but Silver says they’re probably not going to stop there.

More often than not, in fact, Republicans’ magic number will not be six seats. Instead, in more than 60 percent of our simulations the FiveThirtyEight model ran Thursday night, Democrats won at least one GOP-held seat. And about 20 percent of the time, they won at least two Republican seats. So the GOP’s magic number could be seven, eight or even nine seats instead.

And to those looking at key races, more Silver predictions on GOP Senate wins:

1. Montana (99.8 percent chance of a GOP win)

2. South Dakota (99 percent)

3. West Virginia (98 percent)

4. Arkansas (90 percent chance)

5. Louisiana (77 percent chance)

6. Colorado (75 percent chance)

7. Iowa (67 percent chance)

8. Alaska (67 percent chance)

9. North Carolina (32 percent chance)

10. New Hampshire (17 percent chance)

The good news for Democrats this year?

Not much.

Some of Democrats’ roughly 30 percent chance of holding the Senate represents these cases: where they win squeakers in a number of the closest races and Republicans fall just short of a majority.

Bottom line: go vote.

 

Image by memories_by_mike via Flickr

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News

Trump Is Promising Mass White House Pardons: Report

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President Donald Trump is promising mass pardons to White House staff, and has done so repeatedly, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“I’ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,” Trump said in a recent meeting, to laughs, the Journal reported, citing people familiar.

“That radius,” the Journal added, “appears to be expanding as the president repeats the line. Another person who met with Trump earlier this year said the president quipped about pardoning anyone who had come within 10 feet.”

Trump at one point said he would hold a news conference to announce the mass pardons.

“The president has repeatedly raised the specter of pardons with White House aides and other administration officials, particularly when staff have suggested they could face prosecution or congressional investigations over decisions, people familiar with the comments said,” the Journal reported.

The Journal did not state if the pardons would be blanket pardons, but reported that those familiar with his remarks “said they weren’t aware of specific pardons being offered to specific people for specific acts.”

READ MORE: White House Fires Back After President’s Doctor Is Asked to Test Trump’s Mental Fitness

The report also noted that Trump has often seriously pursued actions he initially had joked about.

“It seems like he previewed many times his intent to use the pardon power to bail out those who carry out his agenda faithfully,” Liz Oyer, a former Trump Justice Department pardon attorney told the Journal. She also “said the offers could spur Cabinet officials and administration officials to behave more aggressively.”

While Trump did not pardon White House or other officials in conjunction with the events of January 6, 2021, on his first day back in office he did issue sweeping pardons to roughly 1,500 of those who were at the Capitol that day and later arrested.

READ MORE: ‘Only Reason They Are Alive’: Trump Again Threatens Iran in Unhinged Truth Social Post

 

Image via Reuters 

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White House Fires Back After President’s Doctor Is Asked to Test Trump’s Mental Fitness

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The White House is fighting back after a prominent House Democrat demanded that the Physician to the President test Donald Trump’s mental fitness, citing the president’s recent remarks.

“At a time when our country is at war—especially when the war was initiated by the President without congressional declaration or consent—the American people must be able to trust that the Commander-in-Chief has the mental capacity to discharge the essential duties of his office,” Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin wrote to the President’s Physician, Captain Sean P. Barbabella, D.O., in a letter published by Punchbowl News.

“I therefore request that you conduct a comprehensive cognitive assessment of President Donald Trump, provide those results to Congress, and make yourself available to brief Congress on your findings.”

Congressman Raskin noted that experts “have repeatedly warned that the President has been exhibiting signs consistent with dementia and cognitive decline.”

“And, in recent days, the country has watched President Trump’s public statements and outbursts turn increasingly incoherent, volatile, profane, deranged, and threatening. His apparently deteriorating condition has caused tremendous alarm across the nation (and political spectrum) about the President’s cognitive function and continuing mental fitness for the office of President, and prompted concerns about the President’s well-being.”

Raskin noted that during the Biden presidency, Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer called President Biden’s mental acuity “one of the greatest scandals in our nation’s history,” and subpoenaed the White House Physician.

He also noted that during that time, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan declared that a president who is not cognitively fit, “isn’t fit for office.”

Raskin offered some examples, including Trump’s recent message to Iran, which the Congressman described as combining “vulgarity and profanity, unprecedented threats of mass civilian destruction, and a sarcastic invocation of Islam on Easter morning—a bizarre display that shocked tens of millions of Americans and astonished observers across the political spectrum.”

Trump had written: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F——’ Strait, you crazy b——, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

The New York Times had described Trump’s remarks as a “blistering threat” that “would have stood out on any day, much less on what most Christians consider the holiest day of the year.”

Raskin is insisting that Dr. Barbabella conduct “a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment of the President, including a formal cognitive screening instrument, and publicly release the results.”

Also, it asks him to provide “a detailed report on the President’s current mental and physical health status, including any medications he is currently taking and their potential,” and make himself available for a briefing under oath.

The White House wasted no time in responding, telling Courthouse News’ Benjamin S. Weiss: “Lightweight Jamie Raskin is a stupid person’s idea of a smart person.”

“President Trump’s sharpness, unmatched energy, and historic accessibility stand in stark contrast to what we saw during the past four years when Democrats like Raskin intentionally covered up Joe Biden’s serious mental and physical decline from the American people,” the White House added.

 

Image via Reuters 

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‘Only Reason They Are Alive’: Trump Again Threatens Iran in Unhinged Truth Social Post

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Ahead of diplomatic talks starting Saturday, President Donald Trump once again threatened Iran with violence as critics charge his tenuous cease-fire has fallen apart.

“As Vice President JD Vance was heading to Pakistan on Friday for peace talks with Iran, a senior Iranian official laid out new conditions for the negotiations, adding even more uncertainty about the durability of the cease-fire and whether the two sides could reach a long-term deal,” The New York Times reports, noting that President Trump “warned Tehran not to overplay its hand.”

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways,” the President wrote on Truth Social.

“The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” he declared.

His remarks seemed to echo his highly-criticized comments earlier this week:

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

On April 1, Trump wrote, “we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”

Some ridiculed the president.

“Completely controlling the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships a $2 million toll to pass through seem to be a couple of pretty good cards,” noted attorney Adam Cohen.

Reason’s Matthew Petti added, “You might say that Iran’s only cards are…a strait flush.”

 

Image via Reuters 

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