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NOM’s Numbers Problem With Marriage Equality Polls

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NOM, the National Organization for Marriage, has a numbers problem with recent polls that show a majority of Americans support marriage equality. Ever since last Friday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll that found 53% of voters in America support same-sex marriage, NOM has been on the attack.

The first shot across the bow was, incidentally, in the Washington Post’s own article announcing the poll results, which included a response from NOM president Brian Brown.

“Opponents of same-sex marriage took issue with the poll, which asks respondents: “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?” Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage, argued that the term “illegal” could be inferred to mean that violators could be imprisoned, which most Americans would consider harsh.”

Later, the Washington Post adds, “Post-ABC News polls have used the same “legal or illegal” wording in every poll about same-sex marriage since 2003. Other surveys by the Pew Research Center, the Associated Press and CNN show similar trends.”

Then, on Monday, in her National Review column, Maggie Gallagher, NOM’s Chairman, wrote, sarcastically, “Major meme alert: A majority of Americans now allegedly support gay marriage! This is very hard to believe given, say, November exit polls showing just 40 percent support SSM (and 54 percent oppose it). It’s also very hard to believe given that gay marriage is having a hard time gathering majority support even in deep-blue states, from California to Maine to Maryland.”

But Gallagher has revealed her hand, and turned the case of whether or not a majority of Americans support same-sex marriage into one of “my poll is better than your poll.” And if that is the game, Gallagher has already lost.

Who among us would opt for a four-month old exit poll (or, just exit polls, period) over a reputable ABC News/Washington Post poll that has asked the same question the same way for the better part of a decade, and can compare all the results?

Add to that the fact that this is not the first major, credible, national poll that finds the same fact: support for marriage equality in America has reached the majority.

In an email blast to “Marriage Supporters,” NOM president Brian Brown states on Monday that the “Human Rights Campaign is crowing about a new poll supposedly showing that 51% of Americans oppose DOMA. You know that’s wrong, and I know that’s wrong.”

The question is, why “is that wrong?,” (it’s not — the HRC study is very accurate,) and, why didn’t Brown include the ABC News/Washington Post poll in his email? Why didn’t Brown mention that, based on the HRC study, conservatives are evenly split on DOMA repeal? Could it be because NOM’s email marriage supporters are foolhardy enough to dismiss an HRC study, but smart enough to believe an ABC News/Washington Post poll?

Last year, before Gallagher’s November exit polls, two August polls found the same fact. A CNN poll found 52% of Americans believed “gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid,” and an AP/Roper poll found 52% of Americans answered “Yes,” to the question, “Should the Federal Government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, or not?”

But wait, there’s more!

Gallagher didn’t dare to touch the most-shocking aspect of the ABC News/Washington Post poll that found a startling 63% of Catholics support same-sex marriage. Why? It’s often been asked if NOM is a front for the Mormon Church, or a consortium of religious institutions, and how much it benefits from religious donations. Could this be the reason Gallagher has refused to touch upon that aspect of the poll?

In her National Review column, Gallagher also drops a rather unkind remark, stating that what she calls a “Democratic hack” poll that shows only 31% support for marriage equality (“when offered the alternative of civil unions or no recognition at all,”) is the most accurate, because it is a robo-calling push poll, “and Americans are becoming scared to say what they really think on the issue.”

If that’s really true (of course it’s not!) then Gallagher should hand in her keys to the company car. NOM has spent millions upon millions of dollars in key marriage equality battlegrounds, twisting and tweaking and successfully changing outcomes by appealing to the radical extremists. If she now thinks that all her time and money has led to a nation of sheep, perhaps it’s time to take another tack?

In her NOM blog, Gallagher adds, “Gay marriage advocates are no longer persuading, they are intimidating and silencing. If people are afraid to tell the strange person on the phone their real views on marriage, that in itself is evidence of a culturally significant shift–but not one to crow about.

“This is an interpretation and time will tell: but this interpretation has the advantage of being totally consistent with the results of recent elections on the issue.”

Which is why the NOM folks — Maggie and Brian — are the first to claim, “The only poll that counts is a free and fair vote on the part of the people.”

But is that true?

Civil rights activists, and many in this country consistently state that the majority should never vote on the rights of the minority. We at The New Civil Rights Movement agree. Why? terms like the “tyranny of the majority,” for one. But as Thomas Jefferson wrote, “that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal laws must protect, and to violate would be oppression.”

[image Maggie Gallagher standing (almost) alone: lost in miami]

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