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‘A Democratic Tsunami’: Top Election Forecaster Changes 2020 Prediction

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President Donald Trump and his supporters are hoping that if his hardcore MAGA base shows up in big numbers in November and Democratic turnout is weak, he will be able to pull off another Electoral College victory. In order for that to happen, Trump will need to fire up his base as much as possible in swing states.

But according to new, updated analysis from the Cook Political Report, former Vice President Joe Biden has an increasing advantage in many of the swing states that Trump needs to win.

“This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a blue wave,” Cook’s Amy Walter reports. “President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points) and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.”

This month, Walter explains, Biden is looking even better in swing states than he did in June — and Cook has changed its Electoral College ratings to “reflect this reality.”

Walter explains that according to Cook’s analysis this week, “Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District move from ‘toss-up’ to ‘lean Democrat.’ Maine, once in ‘lean Democrat,’ moves to the safer ‘likely Democratic category.’”

The Cook reporter adds, “Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the ‘toss-up’ column, although at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.”

Florida has been a swing state for a long time. President George W. Bush won Florida twice, but so did President Barack Obama — before Trump carried the state in 2016. But only in recent years has once-red Arizona become a swing state.

The victory of Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona was one of the big political bombshells of 2018, and poll after poll has shown Republican Sen. Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly in this year’s U.S. Senate race in that state. Moreover, Biden appears to be quite competitive in Arizona, which for decades, was a deep red state synonymous with the conservatism of Sen. Barry Goldwater and later, Sen. John McCain.

Trump’s poor performance in recent polls is being felt on Wall Street: according to Axios reporter Dino Rabouin, Wall Street is now betting on a Biden victory — a change from earlier this year.

Rabouin reports: “Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially, a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too…. The shift is the latest indicator of how quickly the political and business worlds have aligned in the view that Trump is unlikely to win a second term as COVID-19 infection numbers have spiked again and the economy looks to be stalling.”

On May 11, Rabouin reported that Wall Street was expecting Trump to win a second term. But more recently, according to Rabouin: “A Citigroup poll of 140 fund managers released last week found that 62% expect a Biden win, compared to 70% who expected a Trump victory in the same survey in December. And according to Kace Capital Advisors Managing Director Kenny Polcari, ‘Talk of a Democratic sweep (is) now common’ among investors.”

Walter, on Cook’s website, stresses that the “Democratic tsunami” in November could include not only Trump losing to Biden, but also, Democrats retaking the U.S. Senate and expanding their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

None of that is to say that Trump won’t turn things around between now and November. There were summer polls that, in 1988’s presidential race, showed Democratic nominee Mike Dukakis with a double-digit lead over Vice President George H.W. Bush. But in 1988, the U.S. wasn’t coping with the world’s deadliest pandemic in more than 100 years.

Walter adds the caveat that the race could still change, noting:

One of the biggest unknowns, however, is voting itself. As we’ve seen this spring and early summer, most states are not prepared for an onslaught of absentee ballots. And confusion about how/where to vote could impact turnout.

She also floats the possibility of voters splitting their ticket this year — that is, voting for Biden over Trump but voting GOP in Senate and House races. However, a GOP strategist interviewed by Cook is predicting that many voters will go straight Democratic this time.

“If voters start to sense that the race for president is a blow-out, will they be more willing to split their tickets to ensure a ‘check and balance’ in Washington next fall?” Walter writes. “At least one Republican I spoke with, however, was wary of a check-and-balance working this year, telling me that ‘people are looking for a restart and a reset.’ That includes down-ballot candidates as well as the president.”

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Congressman Pummeled for Praising Students Mocking Black Protester With Monkey Sounds

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U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, Republican of Georgia, is under fire after praising University of Mississippi students, some wearing American flag outfits, mocking a Black woman protester by making monkey sounds and shouting, “lock her up.”

“Counter-protestors at the University of Mississippi made racist remarks — including monkey noises and comparisons to Lizzo — towards a Black woman who was part of a planned protest against the war in Gaza,” Los Angeles Magazine reported Friday.

Collins, who tried to defund Vice President Kamala Harris’ Office in November, declared his support for the counter-protesters at “Ole Miss,” as the University is called.

“Ole Miss taking care of business,” he wrote on social media, atop the video (below).

The counter-protesters, as evidenced in the video, appear to be mostly white.

A large number of users on the social media platform X responded, accusing the Congressman and the counter-protesters of racism.

“When is the inevitable ‘I don’t have a racist bone in my body’ tweet coming,” wondered Rewire News Group editor-at-large Imani Gandy.

“Which part is your favorite, Mike?” asked Fred Wellman, the former executive director of The Lincoln Project. “Is it the white kid acting like a monkey at the black woman or the white security guy acting like she’s a threat? I’m trying to figure out which flavor of racism has you all excited the most?”

READ MORE: MAGA State Superintendent Supports Chaplains in Public Schools – But Not From All Religions

Harvard Law Cyberlaw Clinic clinical instructor Alejandra Caraballo responded to the Georgia GOP congressman, “Thanks for confirming you’re a massive racist piece of sh*t.”

Mississippi Free Press news editor Ashton Pittman wrote: “Rep. Mike Collins, R-Georgia, praises a video showing a University of Mississippi frat boy dancing like a monkey and making monkey noises near a Black woman student who was protesting for Palestine while other frat boys chant ‘lock her up.'”

In a separate post describing a separate video taken of the same group Pittman wrote: “Frat bros at @OleMiss chant, ‘Lizzo! Lizzo!’ and shout, ‘F**k you fatass, f**k you b*tch’ at a Black woman who was protesting for Palestine. Do people really think these counterprotestors are doing it to support Jews?”

Journalist John Harwood did not mince words, writing, “Congressman proud of the racism.”

“Okay, Mike. We get it,” wrote podcast host, documentary director, and author W. Kamau Bell. “You want to be famous for being a racist. Fine. I’ll help you become a famous racist. You’re welcome.”

The original video is here.

See Rep. Collins’ post and the video below or at this link.

Caution: the video is disturbing.

READ MORE: Noem Heads to Mar-a-Lago After Branding Kids She Ministered in Church ‘Little Tyrants’

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Noem Heads to Mar-a-Lago After Branding Kids She Ministered in Church ‘Little Tyrants’

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Amid more damning revelations from her soon-to-be released book, embattled South Dakota Republican Governor Kristi Noem will head to Mar-a-Lago this weekend as ex-president Donald Trump auditions potential vice presidential picks in front of high-dollar donors. Noem was also slated to attend a Republican fundraiser in Colorado this weekend but it was canceled over alleged safety concerns after news broke she had bragged about shooting her 14-month old dog.

While Noem’s shooting to death of her wirehaired pointer, Cricket, which she detailed in the book, is still making headlines overnight a new revelation made news: Noem falsely claims in her book she met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.

A spokesperson for Noem “seemed to concede that the Kim story was false Thursday night,” and notified her publisher, Politico’s Ryan Lizza reported in his exclusive.

But less noticed appears to be the actual text of Noem’s false story, in which she brands children she ministered in church “little tyrants,” and compared them to the murderous North Korean dictator.

READ MORE: RFK Jr., Embracing Far-Right, Spoke at Fundraiser for Anti-Government Group With J6 Ties

“Through my tenure on the House Armed Services Committee,” Noem wrote, according to Politico, “I had the chance to travel to many countries to meet with world leaders. I remember when I met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. I’m sure he underestimated me, having no clue about my experience staring down little tyrants (I’d been a children’s pastor, after all).”

CNBC reported this week Trump “will mingle with potential vice presidential running mates and wealthy Republican donors at the Republican National Committee’s spring donor retreat. The meetings are likely to act as informal tryouts for a short list of politicos in the running to join the Trump ticket.”

The list of Republican “special guests” includes U.S. Senators Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, and J.D. Vance, Rep. Elise Stefanik, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.

Also expected to attend are House Speaker Mike Johnson, U.S. Reps. Byron Donalds of Florida and Wesley Hunt of Texas, former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and other elected Republicans along with RNC co-chair Lara Trump.

READ MORE: Election Denialism Embraced by ‘Large Proportion’ of Trump’s Followers: Report

NBC News, which says Rep. Donalds is also under consideration, on Friday added there will be “a fundraising retreat that could serve as a screening session” for potential vice presidential running mates.

Meanwhile, the Jefferson County, Colorado Republican Party chair announced a fundraising dinner Noem was slated to attend was canceled after threats were made, The Denver Post reports.

“We understood there was a planned organized protest outside of the hotel, led by Progress Now,” Nancy Pallozzi said. “I felt that our event would be negatively impacted, and we could not take the risk that those who made threats would cause physical harm.”

 

 

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RFK Jr., Embracing Far-Right, Spoke at Fundraiser for Anti-Government Group With J6 Ties

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Over the weekend independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. spoke at a fundraiser for a far-right anti-government group in Erie County, New York – a slice of the country that had a large proportion of residents arrested and charged for crimes related to the January 6 insurrection. Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist and vaccine denialist, increasingly is embracing the far-right.

“That group, Constitutional Coalition of New York State, has founders who not only have ties to Donald Trump but are also connected to the stop-the-steal movement through their activist network, which includes groups that had a presence at the Capitol on Jan. 6,” The Daily Beast reported Friday. “It’s yet another instance of Kennedy—who is mounting one of the most well-funded third-party presidential threats in decades—serving as a peculiar bridge between his own anti-establishment movement and Trump’s.”

The Southern Poverty Law Center includes the Constitutional Coalition of New York State (CCNYS) on its page of anti-government groups. Political Research Associates, which detailed the high proportion of January 6 residents arrested and charged, included the Constitutional Coalition of New York State in its February report on “The Rise of the Far Right in Western New York.”

READ MORE: Election Denialism Embraced by ‘Large Proportion’ of Trump’s Followers: Report

“If you don’t think the government is lying to you, you’re not paying attention,” Kennedy told attendees at the CCNYS fundraiser, The Buffalo News reports.

“CCNYS founders Nick and Nancie Orticelli are also affiliated with the Watchmen, a nearby militia who Nick has encouraged his social media followers to join. The Watchmen had several members at the Capitol on Jan. 6, and one member, Pete Harding, is still facing charges for violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds,” The Daily Beast noted. “Nancie Orticelli has also hosted the Watchmen’s founder, Charles Pellien, on her weekly radio show on several occasions.”

One of Kennedy’s goals in traveling to New York was to get on the ballot for the November presidential election. Various polls show him taking votes from both President Joe Biden and ex-president Donald Trump, but Kennedy currently has only qualified to be on the ballot in three states, Utah, Michigan and Hawaii, the newspaper reported.

But The Washington Post on Thursday reported The American Independent Party of California, which has a history of “far-right ties,” and “backed segregationist and former Alabama governor George Wallace in 1968, nominated Kennedy for president.”

Kennedy “said this week that he has qualified to be on the ballot in California and will accept the nomination of the American Independent Party, which has a history of associating itself with far-right figures and individuals who have expressed racist views.”

Some news reports and RFK Jr. himself say the Trump campaign was actively courting Kennedy, attempting to convince him to consider being the ex-president’s 2024 vice presidential running mate.

“That MAGA dalliance with Kennedy could be coming back to bite the Trump campaign, some Republicans close to the former president worry,” The Daily Beast also reported.

“’They can only blame themselves,’ a Trump-aligned strategist told The Daily Beast, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about private conversations about the risk Kennedy poses, ‘because they cozied up to him and thought it was funny.’”

Watch WIVBTV’s report on Kennedy’s trip to New York below or at this link.

READ MORE: Trump Won’t Commit to Accepting Election Results if He Doesn’t Win State He Falsely Claims He Won

 

 

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