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ANALYSIS

Report Details ‘Doomsday Scenario’ for America if Newsom Loses the California Recall

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In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election — and on September 14, voters will decide whether he remains in office or is replaced by someone else. Some are confident that Newsom will prevail, but CNN reporters Manu Raju and Alex Rogers, in an article published this week, stress that behind closed doors, some California Democrats are expressing fears that Republicans may succeed in getting him out of the governor’s office in Sacramento.

Raju and Rogers explain, “It’s the Democrats’ doomsday scenario: California Gov. Gavin Newsom loses his recall race this fall, and a Senate vacancy is later filled by a GOP governor. And the 50-50 Senate, currently controlled by Democrats, is run again by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. It’s a scenario that Democrats publicly say they’re confident will never happen — but privately, many acknowledge that it’s entirely possible.”

Although California was once a red state, it has become increasingly Democratic in recent decades — and some of the most prominent Democrats in Washington, D.C. are from California, including Vice President Kamala Harris, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff. But the California right, although not the prominent force that it was during the 1960s and 1970s, has not gone away. And in California, the GOP has been pushing the recall effort aggressively. The rules of the recall give challengers and unusual advantage, and if Democrats voters stay home disproportionately, there’s a real chance a Republican could end up leading the state.

According to Raju and Rogers, “A new governor could take the oath of office as soon as October 22 — 38 days after the election, when the California secretary of state could certify the results. Newsom faces a recall election September 14, after some Californians criticized his handling of the state’s homelessness problem, devastating wildfires and COVID-19 crisis. There are two questions on the ballot, asking whether Newsom should be removed from office, and if so, replaced by whom.”

The CNN reporters add, “There are 46 candidates running against Newsom, including a number of GOP candidates: conservative talk show radio host Larry Elder, businessman John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former Rep. Doug Ose and Caitlyn Jenner.”

The hypothetical “Senate vacancy” that California Democrats express concerns about in private, according to Raju and Rogers, would be for the seat presently held by long-time Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is now 88.

Raju and Rogers explain, “Newsom, meanwhile, is struggling to energize Democratic voters, while Republicans are rallying to vote him out of office between now and September 14 — all of which has made the race surprisingly close.”

 

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ANALYSIS

‘Basically Game Over’: Legal Experts Say SCOTUS Likely to Gut Abortion – and There’s a ‘Lot More on the Chopping Block’

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Legal experts are weighing in after listening to Wednesday morning’s Supreme Court oral arguments on abortion, and they’re almost entirely certain the 6-3 conservative majority will gut Roe v. Wade – the only question is how much.

Bloomberg News Supreme Court reporter says there’s no question that the Supreme Court “seem poised to slash abortion rights” and maybe worse.

Slate’s legal expert Mark Joseph Stern predicts that, in his opinion, basically by the end of next year – six months after the Supreme Court hands down its decision in today’s case – half the states across the country will have abortion bans in place.

To those who say women can just travel to a state that doesn’t ban abortion, University of California, Irvine School of Law law and political science professor and election law expert Rick Hasen offers this question:

And Hasen made clear it won’t stop there.

He says, “it won’t end with overturning Roe and allowing guns outside the home. There’s a lot more on the chopping block coming in terms of voting rights, LGBTQ rights, environmental protection, immigration, and more. Decades of work by the conservative legal movement is paying off.”

NYU law professor Melissa Murray agrees it’s not just about abortion.

Stern observes this one “question from Amy Coney Barrett is basically game over for Roe.” The far right wing faith-based justice says now that women can simply give up a child for adoption after giving birth means there’s no reason to not ban abortion.

 

 

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ANALYSIS

Legal Jeopardy Is Far From Over for Kyle Rittenhouse – Here’s Why

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Appearing on MSNBC on Saturday morning, less than 24 hours after a jury in Wisconsin found Kyle Rittenhouse not guilty after shooting and killing two Black Lives Matter protesters, a former New York prosecutor suggested that families of the victims could file civil suits with an expectation of success.

Speaking with host Kendis Gibson, Charles Coleman said it would be up to the families if they want to pursue Rittenhouse further.

“Charles, the criminal case is over, but could Rittenhouse still face anything civilly, any civil penalties?” host Gibson asked.

“He could,” the attorney conceded. “I don’t know how likely it is, but it is very possible. I think that the outcome of this criminal case certainly gives the chance of a civil case some degree of difficulty in terms of being able to get a liability verdict in civil court but it’s important that viewers understand that the standard for a civil case is much lower in terms of the standard of proof than it is for a criminal case.”

“A criminal case requires that it is beyond a reasonable doubt,” he elaborated. “Whereas a civil case requires that it is beyond a preponderance of the evidence, which is basically 50.0001% of being able to prove or establish liability. With a lower bar perhaps it may be that plaintiffs decide that they want to try to sue for wrongful death, or some other sort of injury, and make Kyle Rittenhouse responsible — that remains to be seen at this point.”

Watch below:

 

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ANALYSIS

‘This Is the Rule of Law Striking Back’: Legal Experts Cheer DOJ’s Bannon Indictment

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Steve Bannon’s Friday afternoon indictment by a grand jury is being heralded by legal experts. The former Trump advisor faces two counts of criminal contempt of Congress for refusing to testify before the Select Committee on the January 6 Attack and for refusing to hand over documents to House investigators.

“Good news for the rule of law, and the institution of Congress,” NYU Law professor Ryan Goodman, a former Defense Dept. Special Counsel tweeted.

This is the first time in nearly four decades anyone has been indicted for criminal contempt of Congress. Bannon faces up to two years in jail should a jury convict him.

“This is the rule of law striking back,”  U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) said on MSNBC in response to the news. “Mark Meadows: Call your office.”

Tristan Snell, who successfully prosecuted the State of New York’s case against Trump University, warns Bannon is a flight risk:

He adds:

Top national security lawyer Bradley Moss had a three-pronged response to the news.

First, he scolded those who complained Attorney General Merrick Garland and DOJ were not moving fast enough: “What did I say? I said give Garland time. I said stop whining like little children. All of you can get on your knees and apologize now for weeks of incessant juvenile antics.”

Then he also took a swipe at Bannon and other Trump acolytes: “Who else wants to go to jail for Donald Trump?”

And finally, he mocked Bannon’s infamous wardrobe, asking if the Federal Bureau of Prisons will issue “five layered clothing.”

Vox senior correspondent Ian Millhiser, author of books on the Supreme Court:

LA Times Legal Affairs Columnist Harry Litman, a former U.S. Attorney:

 

 

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