ANALYSIS
Report Details ‘Doomsday Scenario’ for America if Newsom Loses the California Recall
In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election — and on September 14, voters will decide whether he remains in office or is replaced by someone else. Some are confident that Newsom will prevail, but CNN reporters Manu Raju and Alex Rogers, in an article published this week, stress that behind closed doors, some California Democrats are expressing fears that Republicans may succeed in getting him out of the governor’s office in Sacramento.
Raju and Rogers explain, “It’s the Democrats’ doomsday scenario: California Gov. Gavin Newsom loses his recall race this fall, and a Senate vacancy is later filled by a GOP governor. And the 50-50 Senate, currently controlled by Democrats, is run again by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. It’s a scenario that Democrats publicly say they’re confident will never happen — but privately, many acknowledge that it’s entirely possible.”
Although California was once a red state, it has become increasingly Democratic in recent decades — and some of the most prominent Democrats in Washington, D.C. are from California, including Vice President Kamala Harris, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff. But the California right, although not the prominent force that it was during the 1960s and 1970s, has not gone away. And in California, the GOP has been pushing the recall effort aggressively. The rules of the recall give challengers and unusual advantage, and if Democrats voters stay home disproportionately, there’s a real chance a Republican could end up leading the state.
According to Raju and Rogers, “A new governor could take the oath of office as soon as October 22 — 38 days after the election, when the California secretary of state could certify the results. Newsom faces a recall election September 14, after some Californians criticized his handling of the state’s homelessness problem, devastating wildfires and COVID-19 crisis. There are two questions on the ballot, asking whether Newsom should be removed from office, and if so, replaced by whom.”
The CNN reporters add, “There are 46 candidates running against Newsom, including a number of GOP candidates: conservative talk show radio host Larry Elder, businessman John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former Rep. Doug Ose and Caitlyn Jenner.”
The hypothetical “Senate vacancy” that California Democrats express concerns about in private, according to Raju and Rogers, would be for the seat presently held by long-time Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is now 88.
Raju and Rogers explain, “Newsom, meanwhile, is struggling to energize Democratic voters, while Republicans are rallying to vote him out of office between now and September 14 — all of which has made the race surprisingly close.”
Enjoy this piece?
… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.
NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.
Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.
 |
President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity is taking a toll on Republican candidates, with once-solidly-red states showing deepening blue cracks as his Iran war, gas and food prices, inflation, and overall economic uncertainty take hold of voters.
The signs have been there: the massive “No Kings” protests, the breaks by once-devout MAGA allies, Fox News acknowledging that Trump is “underwater” with voters, the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress, historically low consumer sentiment, and, of course, the polls.
Trump’s approval rating has been characterized as lower than any modern-day president’s at this point in their term.
According to The Economist, Trump’s approval rating is at 37 percent, and his disapproval rating is at 56 percent. That’s a net negative of 19 points.
It’s worse in the red state of Georgia, where Trump is 23 points underwater.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, 56 percent of voters in the Peach State disapprove of Trump’s handling of rising gas prices. 57 percent say the money spent on his Iran war is contributing to higher prices and uncertainty. And 53 percent disapprove of his handling of the Iran war.
READ MORE: ‘He Reported to Me in Detail’: Netanyahu’s Boast on Vance Fuels Blowback
The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor reports that they have just moved the Georgia Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.
“Some of this is outside of GOP candidates’ control,” Taylor writes, “and Trump is hurting them so much right now on Iran/gas prices when voters uniformly say their top worry is the economy.”
She also reports that Cook Political has moved three other Senate races toward the Democrats: North Carolina (Toss Up to Lean Democratic), Ohio (Lean Republican to Toss Up), and Nebraska (Solid Republican to Lean Republican).
“Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup – just short of 4 they need” to take control of the Senate majority, Taylor writes.
Democrats have high hopes in other states as well, including Alaska, where Trump is 12 points underwater; Maine, where he is 25 points underwater; and Texas, where he is 19 points underwater.
And Iowa, where Trump is underwater by 14 points, according to The Economist.
“Iowa looks to be seriously in play for Democrats in November up and down the ballot, according to a new survey from a Democratic group that backs moderate candidates,” Politico reports.
Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Randy Feenstra in the Iowa governor’s race — by eight points, while Republicans hold “slim leads” in the Senate race.
The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund is expected to pour millions into Iowa, “making it one of five GOP-held states where they’ve made a major investment as they fight to keep the majority.”
Former Obama official Tommy Vietor notes that “Iowa really does look competitive this year. It’s a combination of Trump fatigue, economy/inflation, and tariffs crushing farmers. Dem pickup opportunities include: Governor, US Senate, three House races (dream big and its all four), and its WAY cheaper than other states.”
READ MORE: White House Fires Back After President’s Doctor Is Asked to Test Trump’s Mental Fitness
Image via Reuters
Fox News has published a striking assessment of President Donald Trump’s political standing ahead of the midterms.
In a Friday article about the president’s firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi, the conservative outlet reported that other Cabinet officials could also be on the “chopping block” — and offered a blunt assessment: Trump is “saddled with underwater approval ratings and an unpopular war ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections, when Republicans are working to hold onto their slim House and Senate majorities.”
Last month, Fox News acknowledged that the Republican Party is “underwater” with voters, while reporting that Democrats had sunk to a “new low.” Fox News rarely applies the term “underwater” to Republicans, a search of the outlet’s website revealed.
On Wednesday, Fox News reported that “polls indicate” the war in Iran is “unpopular with many Americans, and a surge in gas prices as a direct result of the fighting have triggered a further slide in Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys.”
READ MORE: ‘Darker Clouds’: Experts Warn the Unemployment Drop Is a Warning Sign
That report noted at the top that “Trump stands at 41% approval and 59% disapproval in the most recent Fox News national poll.”
“The political implications are clear,” the report added. “The strikes on Iran and the erosion of the president’s approval ratings are warning signs for the GOP as Republicans ramp up to defend their slim House and Senate majorities in this autumn’s midterm elections.”
It also added that “Trump’s base remains extremely supportive of the president and the war,” and that “much of the slippage” is coming from “non-MAGA Republicans.”
Friday’s blunt Fox News language comes one day after Mediaite’s Colby Hall wrote an opinion piece about the Fox News channel, titled: “Fox News Viewers Have No Clue Trump’s Approval Rating Has Cratered.”
“President Donald Trump is currently enduring the most significant and sustained approval rating decline of his presidency, and the most-watched news network in America is virtually ignoring it,” Hall wrote.
READ MORE: ‘Come Personally to His Aid’: Group Warns Trump Could Install Two Loyalists on SCOTUS
Image via Reuters
House Republicans have inserted anti-LGBTQ language into a $66 billion must-pass funding bill for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, effectively granting civil immunity under federal law to individuals and organizations that discriminate against same-sex couples—by citing a religious or moral belief that marriage should be limited to one man and one woman. It also bans the federal government from taking a range of actions against those who hold and act on anti-same-sex marriage beliefs.
Section 544 bans the use of federal funds to take any “discriminatory action” against someone who cites their “sincerely held religious belief” or “moral conviction” that marriage is only “a union of one man and one woman.”
A portion of the provision exactly matches language U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) urged the House Appropriations Committee to include in 2023 legislation. Rep. Roy cited praise from anti-LGBTQ hate group leader Tony Perkins and other anti-LGBTQ activists in his press release urging inclusion of the amendment in a 2023 bill. It is not known who drafted or approved the current 2025 provision.
READ MORE: ‘Absolutely Incredible’: Dr. Oz Slammed for Telling Medicaid Users to ‘Prove You Matter’
Journalist Jamie Dupree, who writes Regular Order at Substack, first reported on the provision in the DHS funding bill.
The language could prohibit the government from withholding federal funds from a federally-funded religious school that fired a teacher who supports same-sex marriage. It could block the IRS from revoking the tax-exempt status of organizations that promote the belief that marriage is only between one man and one woman. It could ban the federal government from taking action against a hospital that receives federal funds if it refused certain services in some cases.
While the language is not found in The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, some of the core principles in Section 544 echo its recommendations.
Project 2025 calls on the federal government to “Protect faith-based grant recipients from religious liberty violations and maintain a biblically based, social science–reinforced definition of marriage and family,” and “Provide robust protections for religious employers,” while it denounces “the bullying LGBTQ+ agenda.”
READ MORE: ‘He. Is. Lying.’: GOP Senator Ripped for Spinning Medicaid Cuts as ‘Transitioning’
Image via Shutterstock
Platner Scorched Over ‘Taking Time’ Video After New Accusation
Trump Sparks Fury Online After Posting Unblurred Video of Muslim Kindergartners in Hijabs
One Legal Maneuver Threatens to Undo Everything E. Jean Carroll Won
Inside the Group Helping MAGA Voters Walk Away — And What Finally Pushed Them
