In a column for the Daily Beast, longtime political observer Michael Tomasky looked at polling numbers and reports coming out of swing-state Ohio and made the case that Donald Trump may not be able to count on winning the state in November.
With Fox News reporting national numbers also looking bad for the sitting president, Tomasky focused in Ohio where the president appears to be faltering as Republicans appear to be fleeing Trump.
“Wednesday on Morning Joe, the namesake host was running through the states where Joe Biden was currently ahead of Donald Trump or was close. Pennsylvania, Scarborough said, was all but in the bag for Biden. Michigan was looking good, Wisconsin leaning that way. Then he proceeded to name-check (if I’m remembering them all) Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and even Texas as possibly competitive,” Tomasky wrote before adding, “That’s 10 states, fully one-fifth of the whole tattered union. But what state did he not mention? The ur-swing state. The state about which it has often been said, ‘As ____ goes, so goes America.’”
Ohio, he suggested.
Noting that Trump won the state in 2016 by 8.1 percentage points, or nearly 450,000 votes, Tomasky claimed recent trends show a sea change against the president this go-around.
“Some numbers from this year’s primary suggest—I don’t want to go too hard here; suggest—that something very interesting might be happening in the Buckeye State, and it’s not good news for Team Orange,” he wrote.
Based upon the recent primary that showed an upsurge in Democrats requesting mail-in ballots and numbers from the “open_primary” that saw Republicans crossing over to vote for a Democratic candidate, the columnists suggested that the president is facing a rebellion among GOP voters — women in particular.
“What’s it mean? Again, I’ll be cautious here. The obvious inference is that this imbalance is explained by suburban women’s disgust with Trump. We’ve seen this register in a lot of polls. Can there be other explanations? Maybe. But there just aren’t that many options,” he wrote. ” The most likely other explanation is that there was a more competitive presidential race on the Democratic side, spurring Republicans to vote on that side of the fence.”
According to Hannah Riddle, the campaign manager for Alaina Shearer, a Democratic congressional candidate running in a traditional GOP district, a report that 8,800 GOP voters switched to voting for a Democrat is a key number.
“A vastly larger number than we’ve seen before. Anecdotally, you go around and talk to people, and they’re pretty disgusted,” Riddle explained.
“Is this 12th District some kind of anomaly?” Tomasky asked. “Well, let’s saunter down to the also very Republican southwest corner of the state, and the 1st congressional district, the suburbs north and west of Cincinnati. Here, GOP incumbent Steve Chabot is being challenged by Democrat Kate Schroder (her career is in public health—a pretty good year for someone with that on her résumé to be running). In the 1st, says Schroder’s campaign manager Allie Banwell, about 6,200 Republicans took a Democratic ballot, while just 543 Democrats requested a GOP ballot. It’s worth noting here that when people request a ballot, they’re becoming a member of that party until the next primary. So it’s a bit of a commitment for people to make.”
“There are two big things happening in Ohio,” explained state Democratic Party chairman David Pepper. “The first is this suburban shift from red to blue. And number two, the great economy that Trump brags about? That wasn’t really true here even before COVID,” before adding that Trump is now unable to use his “greatest economy ever” line in light of the economic collapse due to the coronavirus pandemic.
“Look, it may still be a tough state. Biden and Trump are essentially tied there right now, which is a bit of a discouraging sign, because in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, and more narrowly in Wisconsin, Biden is ahead. And even though Democratic turnout in Ohio was larger than Republican, the overall turnout figure was a low 23 percent,” Tomasky wrote before concluding, “But still, the above numbers are real. They’re actual votes. By 5- or 7- or 12-to-1, Republicans voted Democratic in Ohio more than the other way around, and independents opted to take the Democratic ballot by large margins. It has to mean something.”
You can read more here (subscription required).
Enjoy this piece?
… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.
NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.
Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.
- 'DODGY DEALS'3 days ago
Is a Conservative Coffee Company Supporting “Kenosha Killer” Kyle Rittenhouse?
- News2 days ago
COVID Knocks Kelly Loeffler Off the Campaign Trail After Mike Pence Events — 45 Days Before Georgia Runoff: Report
- THIS IS WHAT DISENFRANCHISEMENT LOOKS LIKE2 days ago
Michigan Republican Who Met With Trump Pushes ‘Constitutional Crisis’ to Overturn Election on Fox News
- CHUCK TODD2 days ago
Calls Grow to Fire Chuck Todd for ‘Malfeasance of Journalism’ After Allowing Republican to Push Pro-Trump Falsehoods
- 'BUCKLE UP'3 days ago
Republicans Won’t Acknowledge Biden’s Win, But Promise to Block His Cabinet Nominees
- BOWING DOWN TO PUTIN23 hours ago
‘Salting the Earth’: Trump Quits Treaty Allowing US to Fly Reconnaissance Missions Over Russia – Will Destroy Planes
- 'BLOOD ON HIS HANDS'3 days ago
Attorney General Barr Rushes to Execute 3 More Federal Inmates Before Biden Becomes President
- 'CAN'T WE END THIS ALREADY?'3 days ago
Georgia GOP Protestors Scream “Traitors” and “Death to Tyrants” While Demanding Trump Win Election