The question, “If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were held today, who would you vote for?” was asked of those who said they planned to vote in the primaries.
Former Vice President Joe Biden is still in first place, but now at 26%, down one point.
Senator Elizabeth Warren takes second place, with 16%, up five points.
Senator Bernie Sanders drops to third place with 12%, down four points.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fourth place, down one point to 8%.
Senator Kamala Harris is in fifth place, down one point to 6%.
The Economist’s data journalist G. Elliott Morris notes Warren’s favorability ratings are the best among Democrats.
This week’s new Economist/YouGov poll also has Warren up with the best favorability ratings.
% favorable minus % unfavorable, among Democrats:
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 12, 2019
48% also say it is likely or very likely Trump will not win re-election. 36% say it is unlikely he will not win re-election. (Question wording is: “How likely do you think it is that Donald Trump will not win reelection in 2020?”)
The poll also has a large number of questions focused on Pete Buttigieg.
The poll was conducted June 9-11 of 1500 US adults.
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Six Top 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates to Appear in First-Ever LGBTQ Town Hall on National TV
Six of the top ten Democratic presidential candidates have signed on to appear in a town hall focused on “issues of importance to the LGBTQ community.” The October 10 event will be hosted by CNN and the Human Rights Campaign.
“The evening will constitute the largest-ever audience for a Democratic presidential town hall devoted to lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) issues and will mark the first time in history that a major cable news network will air a presidential event devoted to issues of importance to the LGBTQ community,” HRC says in a press release.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Secretary Julián Castro, Senator Kamala Harris, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Senator Elizabeth Warren will all participate. The event is open to all Democratic presidential candidates who meet the DNC’s fall debate eligibility criteria.
Currently not on HRC’s list for the LGBTQ town hall but qualified for this month’s DNC debate are Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Andrew Yang.
“In 2018, LGBTQ voters cast ballots in higher numbers than the general population. LGBTQ voters cast more than 7 million ballots in all — a turnout of roughly 70 percent, compared to a turnout of 49 percent among the general population — and comprised 6 percent of the entire electorate,” HRC notes, adding that there are 10 million LGBTQ voters nationwide.
“Over the last two years,” HRC adds, “the Trump-Pence Administration has rescinded key protections for transgender students, appointed two new conservative justices to the Supreme Court, banned transgender troops from serving openly in the military, and has repeatedly sought to allow discrimination against LGBTQ people in healthcare, housing, public accommodations and other aspects of life under the guise of ‘religious freedom.’ Despite campaigning on a promise to be a ‘friend’ to the LGBTQ community, President Trump designated Mike Pence as his vice president, and has refused to advance bipartisan federal civil rights legislation — the Equality Act — which overwhelmingly passed through the U.S. House of Representatives this spring.”
Top GOP Donor Fears Trump Is a Disaster — and Worries His Presidency Could ‘End in a Wreck’
President Donald Trump this summer has buried himself in a string of political blunders, ranging from racist attacks against four Democratic congresswomen to increasingly belligerent trade war with China that is slowing economic growth and could portend a recession.
The Washington Post reports that at least one major Republican donor is sounding alarm about what Trump is doing to himself politically and what it could mean for the 2020 election.
Dan Eberhart, the chief executive of drilling services company Canary, tells the Post that he has been dismayed as the president has continuously engaged in polarizing controversies instead of working to solve problems.
“President Trump could have focused on solving the trade war, a genuine infrastructure plan or a decisive foreign policy victory,” Eberhart said. “Instead, he fanned the flames of the trade war, attacked Baltimore, ‘the squad’ and the Federal Reserve, and failed to add a cornerstone achievement to his 2020 election credentials. As a Republican, all you can do is hope it doesn’t end in a wreck.”
Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, similarly told the Post that the president blew an opportunity over the summer to broaden his political appeal.
“Normally a president’s numbers go up in August because they have the playing field to themselves and you don’t have all these little Chihuahuas nipping at your heels from Congress,” he explained. “But Trump has always marched to his own tune.”
After ‘Significant Drop’ Biden Now Tied With Sanders and Warren as Democratic Primary Becomes ‘Volatile’
Former Vice President Joe Biden has suffered a “significant drop” in the latest Monmouth nationwide poll, leading to “a virtual three-way tie” between the months-long front-runner, and Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Both Senators now have 20% of the Democratic vote each, with the former Vice President coming in at 19%.
“Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%), and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%),” the Monmouth University Polling Institute reports.
Monmouth says its new poll “suggests the 2020 presidential nomination process may be entering a volatile stage,” and says “confusion over ‘Medicare for All'” may be a contributing factor.
Other Democratic presidential candidates have not moved much since the June poll.
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) remains at 8%. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) jumps up two points to 4%, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg ties Sen. Booker after dropping one point.
Andrew Yang moves up one point to 3%. Former cabinet secretary Julián Castro, who was at less than one point in June is now at 2%, tying with former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who has dropped one point, and Marianne Williamson, who rose one point.
Monmouth describes the former Vice President’s results as “an across the board decline,” including double-digit drops with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%), voters of color (from 33% to 19%), voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%), voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%), and with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%).
“Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.”
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