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Why The New ‘Obama Gay Marriage Support Is A Wash’ Meme Is Wrong

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FACTS:

  • Every major, legitimate poll and pollster finds both majority support (or, plurality approaching majority support) for marriage equality and a dramatic embrace for marriage equality and LGBT rights in America.
  • The trajectory of support for equality is unstoppable.
  • Two weeks after the President’s May 9 announcement, the only groups who have come out against the President’s support are those who already oppose same-sex marriage, whereas those who announced support include previously undeclared or opposed politicians, cultural leaders, and organizations, from Senator Harry Reid to rappers 50 Cent and Jay-Z, to the NAACP.
  • There has been no Democrat announcing a switch to Romney because of Obama’s same-sex marriage support, but there have been Romney supporters moving to Obama for his embrace of marriage equality.
  • Had Obama either come out against marriage equality or not voiced his opinion at all he would have lost a portion of his base. Not losing support in this case is gaining support.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll teased this morning and fully released just minutes ago tonight has had pundits and political analysts claiming the poll results find President Obama’s support for same sex marriage announcement two weeks ago on May 9 hasn’t had any affect on his polling numbers. Here’s why that meme is wrong.

Mark Murray at NBC News, who first reported the poll this morning wrote:

In the poll, a combined 17 percent say it makes them “much more likely” or “somewhat more likely” they will vote for him. That’s compared with a combined 20 percent who say the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.

Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent say the president’s support for gay marriage doesn’t make a difference in their vote — including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest.

“From my distance, it looks more like a voting draw than anything else,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

But here’s the money quote:

In addition, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that a majority — 54 percent — would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal. Twenty four percent would actively support such a law, while 30 percent would favor it but not actively support it.

By comparison, a combined 40 percent say they would oppose such a law.

54% is the largest majority we’ve ever seen in a same-sex marriage poll. And given that a recent Gallup poll showed a three percentage point drop in equality support, to 50%, 54% in a different poll is strong.

Maggie Haberman at Politico this morning said, “it’s worth remembering that the other metric that matters for Obama on this is the one in the recent NYT/CBS poll, where 67 percent of voters viewed Obama’s coments as political.”

Nit really. The President is a politician. While less than Romney, most Americans know that candidate Obama makes some decisions based on politics.

Nate Silver, the New York Times statistician, said via Twitter, “There’s been a dramatic zero-point shift in the polls since Obama came out for gay marriage.”

And Ezra Klein, at The Washington Post, who mentioned the Silver tweet, also today wrote:

As of this morning, they show Obama with a 1.7 percent lead. Looking back at the Wonkbook Dashboards, on the morning of May 9th, however, Obama had a 0.2 percent lead in the RCP head-to-head average. So since coming out for gay marriage, his numbers have slightly improved.

Gallup on Friday released a poll that found that American’s perceptions of the country’s moral values have declined — but not because of anyone’s position on same-sex marriage — rather, because of a perceived lack of civility and tolerance.

So let’s remember a few facts.

First and foremost, the number of voters who are going to switch from President Obama to Mitt Romney solely because of the President’s new support for same-sex marriage is slim, if not immeasurable. Some claim the President may lose a sliver of the African-American vote, but that’s negligible at best. Let’s remember, too that some African Americans are gay, and some have gay friends, neighbors, and family.

Another poll, released just days before the Fox News poll found that President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage equality is actually more popular among Blacks and Hispanics than among whites. Overall, 45% of whites view the President’s support of marriage equality favorably, while 47% of Hispanics do, and 54% of Blacks do as well.

Most Americans knew in their hearts the president was always a support of LGBT rights, and, given the country’s dramatic embrace of gay marriage, there was no chance he was ever going to come out against equality in the long run.

But perhaps most important is last week’s Gallup poll that found the majority of Americans see gay and lesbian relationships as morally acceptable, and the “new normal,” rising 18 percentage points in 10 years.

Of course, last week, a Fox News commissioned poll on same-sex marriage supposedly found that a mere 37% of Americans support same sex marriage. The poll offered a civil unions option for respondents to choose, which 37% did. 25% opted for “no legal recognition” of same-sex relationships. The poll canvassed only 913 registered voters.

On top of all this we have a leaked memo from a top GOP pollster that told Republicans that they had better support same-sex marriage or else face the consequences.

The remaining poll statistics, just released this evening, find:

Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).

Bottom line: taking a stand on marriage equality was a gamble, that could have backfired on the President. Not only did Obama gain minor ground in the polls, but he re-infused his base and his coffers, and kept his promise. It wasn’t a “wash,” it wasn’t a “draw,” it was a line in the sand that no American president can ever cross. And it earned the President a battle cry and nudged his numbers up.

 

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News

‘Antisemitism Is Wrong, But’: Marjorie Taylor Greene Pilloried for Promoting Antisemitic Claim

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May 1, 2024

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U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was strongly criticized Wednesday after promoting a historically and biblically false, antisemitic claim while declaring antisemitism is wrong.

As the House voted on an antisemitism bill that would require the U.S. Dept. of Education to utilize a certain definition of antisemitism when enforcing anti-discrimination laws, the far-right Christian nationalist congresswoman made her false claims on social media.

“Antisemitism is wrong, but I will not be voting for the Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023 (H.R. 6090) today that could convict Christians of antisemitism for believing the Gospel that says Jesus was handed over to Herod to be crucified by the Jews,” Greene tweeted.

The definition of antisemitism the House bill wants to codify was created by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.

Congresswoman Greene highlighted this specific text which she said she opposes: “Using the symbols and images associated with classic antisemitism (e.g., claims of Jews killing Jesus or blood libel) to characterize Israel or Israelis.”

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What Greene is promoting is called “Jewish deicide,” the false and antisemitic claim that Jews killed Jesus Christ. Some who adhere to that false belief also believe all Jews throughout time, including in the present day, are responsible for Christ’s crucification.

Greene has a history of promoting antisemitism, including comparing mask mandates during the coronavirus pandemic to “gas chambers in Nazi Germany.”

Political commentator John Fugelsang set the record straight:

“If only you could read,” lamented Rabbi Dr. Mark Goldfeder, Esq., CEO and Director of the National Jewish Advocacy Center. The Antisemitism Awareness Act “could not convict anyone for believing anything, even this historical and biblical inaccuracy. It only comes into play if there is unlawful discrimination based on this belief that targets a Jewish person. Do you understand that distinction @RepMTG ?”

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“Not surprising,” declared Jacob N. Kornbluh, the senior political reporter at The Forward, formerly the Jewish Daily Forward. “Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has been accused in the past of making antisemitic remarks — including her suggestion that a Jewish-funded space laser had sparked wildfires in California in 2018, voted against the GOP-led Antisemitism Awareness Act.”

Jewish Telegraphic Agency Washington Bureau Chief Ron Kampeas, an award-winning journalist, took a deeper dive into Greene’s remarks.

“Ok leave aside the snark. The obvious antisemitism is in saying ‘the Jews’ crucified Jesus when even according to the text she believes in it was a few leaders in a subset of a contemporary Jewish community. It is collective blame, the most obvious of bigotries.”

“The text she presumably predicates her case on, the New Testament,” he notes, “was when it was collated a political document at a time when Christians and Jews were competing for adherents and when it would have been plainly dangerous to blame Rome for the murder of God.”

“Yes,” Kampeas continues, “that take is obviously one that a fundamentalist would not embrace, but it is the objective and historical take, and *should* be available to Jews (and others!) as a means of explaining why Christian antisemitism exists, and why it is harmful.”

CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere also slammed Greene, saying she “is standing up for continuing to talk about Jews being responsible for the killing of Jesus. (John & Matthew refer to some Jews handing over Jesus to Pilate,not Herod. But also: many, including Pope Benedict, have called blaming Jews a misinterpretation)”

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OPINION

MAGA State Superintendent Supports Chaplains in Public Schools – But Not From All Religions

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May 1, 2024

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Visitors to Oklahoma’s State Schools Superintendent’s personal social media page will notice a post vowing to “ban Critical Race Theory, protect women’s sports, and fight for school choice,” a post linking to a Politico profile of him that reads, “Meet the state GOP official at the forefront of injecting religion into public schools,” a photo of him closely embracing a co-founder of the anti-government extremist group Moms for Liberty, and a video in which he declares, “Oklahoma is MAGA country.”

This is Ryan Walters, a far-right Republican Christian nationalist who is making a national name for himself.

“God has a place in public schools,” is how Politico described Walters’ focus.

Last week the Southern Poverty Law Center published an extensive profile of Walters, alleging “hateful rhetoric toward the LGBTQ+ community, calls to whitewash curriculum, efforts to ban books, and attempts to force Christian nationalist ideology into public school classrooms.”

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“Walters is superintendent of public instruction, and public schools are supposed to serve students of all faiths, backgrounds and identities,” Sarah Kate Ellis, president and CEO of GLAAD, told SPLC.

Walters is supporting new legislation in Oklahoma that follows in Texas’ footsteps: allowing untrained, unlicensed, uncertified, and unregulated religious chaplains and ministers to be hired as official school counselors.

“We heard a lot of talk about a lot of those support staffs, people such as counselors, having shortages,” Rep. Kevin West, a Republican, said, KFOR reports. “I felt like this would be a good way to open that door to possibly get some help.”

Walters praised West, writing: “Allowing schools to have volunteer religious chaplains is a big help in giving students the support they need to be successful. Thank you to @KevinWestOKRep for being the House author for this bill. This passed the House yesterday and moves on to the Senate where @NathanDahm is leading the charge for this bill.”

As several Oklahoma news outlets report, there’s a wrinkle lawmakers may not have anticipated.

“With the Oklahoma House’s passage of Senate Bill 36, which permits the participation of uncertified chaplains in public schools, The Satanic Temple (TST) has announced its plans to have its Ministers in public schools in the Sooner State. If the bill advances through the Senate, this legislation will take effect on November 1, 2024. State Superintendent Ryan Walters, a vocal advocate for religious freedom in schools, has endorsed the legislation. The House approved SB 36 by a 54-37 vote on Wednesday,” a press release from The Satanic Temple reads. “The Satanic Temple, a federally recognized religious organization, has expressed its dedication to religious pluralism and community service.”

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Walters responded on social media to The Satanic Temple’s announcement.

“Satanists are not welcome in Oklahoma schools, but they are welcome to go to hell,” he wrote.

Former Lincoln Project executive director Fred Wellman served up an equally colorful response.

“Hahahaha!!! You are an idiot,” Wellman wrote. “How did you not see this coming? Satanists, Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, Pastafarians…come one come all! After all you’re not trying to establish Christianity as the state religion are you? We had a whole ass revolution about that. There are history books about it…oh…right. Not your thing. What a fool.”

The Freedom From Religion Foundation (FFRF) served up a warning.

“The state of Oklahoma cannot discriminate against people or groups based on their religious beliefs,” the non-profit group wrote. “Walters’ hateful message shows, one again, that he only believes in religious freedom for Christians and that he is unfit to serve in public office.”

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News

Potential Trump VP Pick Says ‘If You’re a Billionaire’ You Should Vote for Trump

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May 1, 2024

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One of the possible picks to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate, seen as “rapidly ascending” the list, is urging billionaires to vote for the ex-president.

North Dakota Republican Governor Doug Burgum “is quickly moving up former President Trump’s list of possible vice presidential picks because Trump’s team believes he would be a safe choice who could attract moderate voters,” Axios reported on Sunday. “Burgum is on a long list of VP contenders, but Trump’s rising interest in the North Dakota governor has been clear in recent weeks — and reveals his latest thinking about how he thinks his running mate could help him with undecided voters.”

Praising Governor Burgum, the National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty on Monday wrote he was “the only candidate in 2024 to easily exceed expectations in the debates.”

“He is a well-liked governor from a small state. He projects seriousness and sobriety, two qualities Pence also had that were important to balance the 2016 Republican ticket. Burgum is also good at championing Republican policy, including our desperately needed policies of energy abundance and supply-side reform. He is also the right age — 67 — with no signs of slowing down. Burgum needs to survive the millions poured into opposition research, but, if he does, I think he would bring credit and balance to the Republican ticket.”

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On Tuesday, Gov. Burgum, appearing on Fox News, told Laura Ingraham, “when you see someone who cares this deeply about this country, what he’s going through and what the Democrats and the liberal media is putting him through, and how he gets up and fights for every day people in America every day, and then his policies are all in the right direction.”

“If you’re a billionaire and you care about your shareholders, you care about your family and your grandkids, you should be voting for someone that’s going to bring prosperity to America and peace to the world, that’s what President Trump is going to do, that’s what he did for us when he was president,” Burgum claimed.

The Hill adds, “Ingraham suggested a lot of billionaires are still planning to support President Biden, especially those that are the ‘Wall Street types.’”

Last year, asked if he would ever do business with Trump, Bergum told NBC News, “I don’t think so,” and added, “I just think that it’s important that you’re judged by the company you keep.”

Some reports call Bergum a billionaire, while Forbes last year reported it “estimates Burgum’s net worth to be at least $100 million.”

Watch the video below or at this link.

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