New Polls: NBC Shows Clinton Beating Trump by 6 Points, CNN Shows Trump Beating Clinton by 2
So, Which One Is Right?
There are three new presidential election polls out Tuesday morning. CNN shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton by 2 points, NBC News shows Clinton beating Trump by 6 points, and an extensive 50-state poll of nearly 75,000 registered voters by the Washington Post shows Clinton beating Trump in Texas.
So, which one is the right one?
Well, all, and none.
And none are “wrong.” A poll is a poll and unless it’s a highly partisan poll designed for a specific result, reputable pollsters deliver reputable results.Â
So, as Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight often stresses, averaging the poll results generally gives a better, more accurate result.
Most bad polling analysis stems from people’s desire to take the most recent/most hyped poll as the gospel truth, instead of averaging data.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2016
Including the CNN and NBC News polls (Washington Post was state-by-state, not a national total), the Real Clear Politics polling average now shows Hillary Clinton up by 3.3 points.
Talking Points Memo’s PollTracker, an average of nearly 50 different polls, has Clinton beating Trump by 2.2 points.
And Silver’s own FiveThirtyEight Polls-plus forecast (often updated several times a day) right now shows Clinton with better than two-to-one chances (67.5% to 32.5%) of beating Trump.
Who will win?
CNN says 59 percent of voters think Clinton will, and just 34 percent believe Trump will.
Â
Enjoy this piece?
… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.
NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.
Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.