MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said the results of California’s failed recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom should be seen as good news for Democrats heading into next year’s congressional midterm elections.
The county-by-county results largely mirrored Democratic wins in last year’s presidential election, and the “Morning Joe” host said they should take comfort in those numbers ahead of the 2022 voting.
“Here we have an off-year election in September, when kids are going back to school,” Scarborough said. “This is a race that is set up for a surprise like we saw in 2009, when the race for [Sen.] Ted Kennedy’s replacement shocked the world and went Republican. If i’m a Democrat and looking at this map, and it’s basically an overlay of the 2020 election, a presidential year election where Democrats usually do better, where the turnout expands where you’re running against Donald Trump, I’m liking, if I’m a Democrat, I’m liking very much what I’m seeing this morning.”
“I would wait to see how the numbers were in Orange County, and look at the swing districts the Democrats could pick up in 2022 and overlay those numbers,” he added. “For me, I’m sure Republicans may look at this differently. For me, this is a really big win for Democrats in terms of a report card nine months in. A lot of bad things happening on the national level, you look at right now with Afghanistan, you look at Joe Biden’s numbers down, again, the fact that when people went to polls and this sort of race, and the fact that Democrats held their own, I would mark that down as a really big win were I a Democrat trying to plan ahead for 2022.”
Some of the dynamics that broke Democratic in the recall effort will likely play a major role in the midterms, as well.
“I also want to look at some of the things that drove the election Newsom’s way, and let’s see on that point, let’s talk about the exit poll and COVID,” Scarborough said. “My theory of the case has been run over the 33 percent politically, run over the 30 percent politically, like Republicans did in Texas on the abortion law, running over the 70 percent, actually. If you’re Gavin Newsom, and you want to win then go where most people go on COVID, on whether it’s the vaccination or masks, do what is right and don’t listen to the 30 percent that are getting their news from Facebook.”