‘The Majority Is in Play’: Top Elections Analyst Explains Democrats’ Path to Winning the Senate

While the presidential election is sucking up a lot of the national media attention, one top elections analyst believes that Democrats could also retake the Senate next year as well.

Writing for the Cook Political Report, analyst Jennifer Duffy explains how the politics of impeachment could hurt vulnerable incumbents such as Sens. Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Martha McSally (R-AZ).

These senators, she argues, are in trouble if they vote to convict and doomed if they vote to acquit. Vote to convict and Republicans won’t support you — vote to acquit, and you may lose the suburban women that you need to win these specific states.

Added to this, writes Duffy, Democrats in these states have been heavily outspending their Republican opponents.

“Democrats have outspent Republicans almost two to one and nearly all that money has been on ads criticizing Collins,” she writes. “Democrats have also outspent Republicans in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Kentucky.”

Additionally, Duffy argues that Democrats really only have two truly vulnerable members: Sens. Doug Jones (D-AL) and Gary Peters (D-MI), which means the GOP will be playing much more defense next year than it did in 2018.

“It appears that there will be at least five GOP-held seats in play, with a chance that Democrats could add one or two more,” she concludes. “This puts Democrats in a position to win the majority, even if they lose Alabama and/or Michigan.”

Read the full analysis here.

Image by John Brighenti via Flickr and a CC license