Nobel laureate Paul Krugman is swapping “TACO” — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — for “NACHO” — “Not a Chance Hormuz Opens.” The prominent economist argues that there are three reasons the Strait of Hormuz, critical for global shipping, including of oil, remains closed and does not appear to be close to reopening any time soon.

“Hormuz won’t open until the economic damage from its closure becomes much more severe,” Krugman warns. Both Iran and America — meaning, President Donald Trump — need to stand down, and all that means is both sides need to simply stop what they are doing right now. Iran must end its embargo, and the U.S. must end its blockade.

What’s stopping this from happening? Largely, Krugman says, Trump’s “ego” and “ignorance,” coupled with the Iranians not having a reason to trust that Trump will do as he says.

“Trump’s ego is so fragile that he can never admit losing,” Krugman writes. “He cannot bear to face up to the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to the greatest strategic defeat in its history. So he desperately wants to extract concessions from Iran that would lend him a fig leaf and allow him to claim victory.”

It’s unlikely Trump will be able to extract concessions.

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He “deludes himself into believing” that he can, because “those delusions are reinforced by the people that Trump has surrounded himself with.” Krugman concludes that “Trump is clearly the worst informed president in modern history about the actual state of America at war.”

Precisely what Trump wants isn’t clear, but “in any case he won’t get it.” Regardless of how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is harming them, the Iranians recognize it is harming the U.S. and the world economy more. For instance, “they know that Trump is facing what is clearly shaping up to be a major electoral defeat in November due to Americans’ anger over the war, its effect on the economy and Trump’s constant stream of lies.”

Ultimately, Krugman says, “Iran won’t make any concessions that weaken its strategic position — which means that it won’t offer Trump anything that he can use to declare victory.”

What does the end look like? It will end with the “non-deal” that was already on the table.

“Iran will emerge poorer but strategically stronger,” Krugman posits. “And America will have suffered its worst strategic defeat in history as a result of a completely gratuitous misadventure to please Trump’s ego.”

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A federal appeals court handed President Donald Trump a loss on Wednesday in his quest for the entire court to re-hear his appeal in the $83 million E. Jean Carroll civil defamation case.

CNN reports that the court’s decision now allows the president to petition the U.S. Supreme Court to hear his claims arguing presidential immunity. The high court established broad criminal immunity for all presidents in 2024 for official acts.

A panel of judges earlier had affirmed a jury verdict that Trump had defamed Carroll in 2022 when he “denied her allegations of sexual assault, said she wasn’t his type, and suggested she made up the allegations to sell copies of her new book,” according to CNN.

Separately, the following year, a jury found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation “over an alleged assault that occurred in the mid-1990s at a New York department store and for statements he made in 2019 denying it happened.”

Trump has argued that the U.S. Department of Justice should have been substituted for him as the defendant. Since the DOJ cannot be sued for defamation, the case would have been ended.

Courthouse News adds that the majority of judges on Wednesday “concluded the court had correctly held that presidential immunity is waivable and that had Trump indeed waived it in the Carroll case.”

“If any other litigant had failed to raise an affirmative defense in this way, there would be no question as to whether he waived his right to assert it,” U.S. Circuit Judge Denny Chin wrote.

Trump has denied all wrongdoing.

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Republicans are reaching back into their old playbook to try to attract voters to support them in the midterms: tax cuts.

But their efforts are tied to lowering taxes on capital gains — such as stocks and homes — which could disproportionately favor wealthy Americans.

Bloomberg News reports that some Republicans want to tie capital gains taxes to inflation, which could reduce the tax burden.

“It would be the biggest step we could do to counteract the massive inflation under Joe Biden and the Democrats and have a positive impact on affordability, particularly affordability of housing, between now and the midterms,” Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) told Bloomberg.

Cruz argued that the proposal would encourage homeowners to sell existing homes, which could free up the housing supply. He also said it would encourage Americans to sell stocks.

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“Despite enthusiasm among key Republicans, the proposal faces challenges. For starters, another big tax and spending bill would require near unanimous support in the fractured GOP,” Bloomberg reported. “Republicans have discussed compiling a fresh tax-cut package this year to serve as a follow-up to Trump’s 2025 ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ to demonstrate to voters that they are taking steps to address unease about the economy.”

Bloomberg reported that the “disproportionate benefit for the wealthy would hand Democrats another attack line heading into a midterms where the party has already painted Republicans’ recent sweeping budget law as a give-away to the rich.”

Brendan Duke, Senior Director for Federal Budget Policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, noted:  “Only 1% of the benefits would go to the bottom 80%–after raising taxes on them thru tariffs, cutting Medicaid & SNAP, and letting ACA enhancements expire.”

Critics slammed the GOP proposal.

“I can’t think of a better indictment of the Republican party and the con they’ve played on working class people than their go-to idea for addressing affordability is a capital gains tax cut,” wrote Neera Tanden, who served as the Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Joe Biden.

“Not for nothing, but this is another broken trickle-down hack idea,” declared Lincoln Project co-founder Reed Galen.

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