Polls from Battleground States Just Released – What Do They Show?

8 States, 22 Polls – What Does It All Mean?

Polls from seven battleground states were released Wednesday afternoon. What do they show?

Let’s take a look.

Based on the below numbers, via Political Wire, it looks like Clinton is ahead in Florida, Michigan, and Colorado. It also looks like Trump is ahead in Ohio, Arizona, and Georgia. And it looks like Virginia and Nevada are toss ups.

But taking a longer view, Nate Silver gives Clinton an 80.7% chance of taking Michigan, an 82.5% chance of winning Virginia, a 74.7% chance of winning Colorado, and a 52.5% chance of taking Nevada.

And Silver gives Trump a 51% chance of taking Florida, a 66% chance of taking Ohio, a 69.7% chance of taking Arizona, and an 87.3% chance of taking Georgia.

What does it mean? It’s all about turnout. 

And if you think this is a lot, look at what Nate Silver just posted:

And he concludes:

Here are today’s state polls:

FLORIDA: Four Polls

Clinton 48%, Trump 40%, Johnson 3% (TargetSmart)
Trump 49%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 2% (Trafalgar)
Clinton 49%, Trump 47%, Johnson 3% (CNN)
Clinton 46%, Trump 45%, Johnson 2% (Quinnipiac)

MICHIGAN: Two Polls

Clinton 50%, Trump 43%, Johnson 4% (Mitchell)
Clinton 47%, Trump 28%, Johnson 11% (Michigan State)

VIRGINIA: Two Polls

Clinton 44%, Trump 39%, Johnson 5% (Winthrop)
Trump 44%, Clinton 41% (Hampton University)

OHIO: Two Polls

Trump 49%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 2% (Trafalgar)
Trump 46%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 5% (Quinnipiac)

COLORADO: One Poll

Clinton 44%, Trump 41%, Johnson 8% (Emerson)

ARIZONA: Two Polls

Trump 47%, Clinton 43%, Johnson 2% (Emerson)
Trump 49%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 5% (CNN)

GEORGIA: One Poll

Trump 51%, Clinton 42%, Johnson 2% (Emerson)

NEVADA:

Trump 49%, Clinton 43%, Johnson 5% (CNN)
Clinton 45%, Trump 45%, Johnson 4% (JMC Enterprises)

 

Image by Michael Rosenstein via Flickr and a CC license