World-Renown Statistician With Stellar Track Record Says Right Now Clinton Is the Hands-On Favorite
Nate Silver says Hillary Clinton has a 79 percent chance of beating Donald Trump in the November presidential election, which basically are 4:1 odds. Silver, who made a name for himself by properly calling 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, and all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election, actually has a sports stats background, which is his current focus.
He puts his projection in those terms.
“We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos. “She’s taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There’s a lot of football left to be played. She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
“Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign,” Silver continued. “He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
But Silver cautions that the race isn’t over yet. He and Stephanopoulos brought up the failed 1988 presidential bid of Democrat Michael Dukakis, who after the convention had a 17 point lead against his opponent, George H. W. Bush.
Â