Did Marriage Win In Today’s Supreme Court Arguments?

The arguments have been made and heard and the analysis is flooding in. So, does marriage win the day at the Supreme Court?

After a good two-and-a-half-hours of oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Obergefell vs. Hodges today, everyone is willing to weigh in on the fate of same-sex marriage.

Will marriage equality be the law of the land?

It depends on whom you’re asking.

The National Organization For Marriage, which has lost (to our knowledge) every court case and practically every legal proceeding it has fought over the past few years, arrogantly issued a press release: “NOM Encouraged by Supreme Court Arguments; Demands That Justices Uphold Marriage As One Man, One Woman.” 

That was followed up by NOM’s president Brian Brown writing a blog post focused on the word “millennia.” That word was used, falsely, by a few of the justices, including Anthony Kennedy, as in, marriage has been one man one woman for millennia – which is false.

LOOK: Scalia Insists Pastors Will Be Forced To Marry Gay Couples If Supreme Court Rules For Equality

SCOTUSblog, the preeminent authority on all things related to the Supreme Court had a different take.

“No clear answers,” writes Amy Howe. “It could turn out to be a nailbiter.”

“Significantly, Justice Anthony Kennedy at times also seemed dubious of the states’ argument,” Howe observed. “Even if same-sex couples can’t have biological children together, he posited, they might still want the other benefits that come with marriage.”

And she suggests we might see “a compromise, in which the Court rules that there is no right to same-sex marriage but still gives the plaintiffs much of what they are seeking by requiring states to recognize same-sex marriages that happen somewhere else.”

But one of the top LGBT legal analysts, journalist and attorney Chris Geidner at Buzzfeed believes same-sex couples will win, probably 5-4, or possibly 6-3.

LOOK: Justice Alito’s Gay Marriage Questions: Could It Legalize Polygamy, Did Ancient Greeks Allow It?

The New York Times reports the justices “seemed deeply divided,” and notes that Justice Kennedy, likely the deciding vote, “seemed torn about what to do.”

The Wall Street Journal characterized the justices as “divided and cautious.”

CNN reported the justices “appeared divided” and “skeptical.”

Elsewhere, David Kurtz at Talking Points Memo writes the court is “closely divided,” and the Washington Post said the court “appears split.”

Bottom line: it’s going to be a long wait until the end of June.

 

Related:

Listen Now: Supreme Court Same-Sex Marriage Oral Arguments – Part I

Listen Now: Supreme Court Same-Sex Marriage Oral Arguments – Part II

These Five Lawyers Hold The Fate Of Marriage In Their Hands

This Is It: The Supreme Court Today Will Hear Arguments To Make ‘Gay Marriage’ Marriage

 

 

Image by dale baich via Twitter