Connect with us

Nate Silver New Forecast: GOP Takes Over The Senate

Published

on

Nate Silver, the genius statistician who correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2012 presidential election in all 50 states and in 31 of 33 Senate races, just announced his outlook for the 2014 Senate race.

It’s no secret that Nate Silver’s predictions are close to perfect. The 36-year old former New York Times syndicated statistician left The Gray Lady for ESPN where he now prognosticates on his first love — sports — and, occasionally, politics. 

So accurate is Silver that Republicans waged war against him in 2012, when his predictions increasingly assured President Obama a strong win, that one radical Republican created the concept of “Unskewed Polls,” which assured a President Mitt Romney. The world knows how that ended.

Today, at his FiveThirtyEight website, Silver offers Republicans assurances of a likely takeover of the Senate, noting that “the most likely outcome involves the Republicans winning about the six seats they need to take over the Senate, give or take a couple.”

“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error.”

Silver does offer Democrats a glimmer of hope.

“I also want to advance a cautionary note. It’s still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races.”

The question Democrats, liberals, and progressives have to answer themselves is, what happens if the GOP retains the House — quite likely — and takes control of the Senate?

How many of these events are guaranteed?

Impeachment of President Barack Obama

Censure of President Barack Obama

Repeal of (part of) Obamacare

Wave of “religious liberty” laws

Wave of anti-choice, anti-women laws

Wave of anti-LGBT laws

Further culling of voting rights

No liberal or progressive judges confirmed

The end of the EPA, food stamps, and even unions

Immigration “reform” that deports 11-13 million people

Of course, the President would have to sign or veto some of these, but the GOP can force his hand.

What other outcomes do you foresee?

 

Image by DonkeyHotey via Flickr

 

There's a reason 10,000 people subscribe to NCRM. You can get the news before it breaks just by subscribing, plus you can learn something new every day.
Continue Reading
Click to comment
 
 

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.

NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.

Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.

News

White House Confirms Trump’s Shift That Pushes SAVE Act Further Right

Published

on

The White House has confirmed President Donald Trump is moving to push the controversial SAVE America Act further right — which could make it even easier for the left to reject.

Many were confused or critical when President Trump claimed on Thursday that the SAVE Act — a voter ID bill that critics say will disenfranchise millions of Americans — would reshape rules for sports participation and health care access for transgender people, which the current text of the bill does not actually do.

According to Trump’s Truth Social post, the bill requires voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote, and no mail-in ballots except for illness, disability, military, or travel. It also bans “men in women’s sports,” and “transgender mutilation surgery for children, without the express written approval of the parents.”

The president, after uproar from the right, dropped the parental approval portion and called to ban all transgender surgery for children.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked on Friday about Trump’s additions to the legislation.

READ MORE: ‘Pure Amateur Hour’: Trump Slammed for ‘Absolutely Racing to Betray His Voters’

After declaring that he wants the SAVE Act passed “as soon as possible,” Leavitt acknowledged that Trump “has added on some priorities” to the bill in recent days, “namely no transgender transition surgeries for minors. We are not gonna tolerate the mutilation of young children in this country. No men in women’s sports. The president putting all of these priorities together, it speaks to how common sense they are.”

“These are all common sense priorities of this president that are backed by the vast majority of Americans and he wants Republicans to act on them as quickly as possible,” she claimed.

According to Democracy Docket, Leavitt’s comments “mark the first time the White House has publicly confirmed that Trump is pushing to attach anti-transgender policies to the SAVE America Act.”

Noting that even if the Senate were to pass the legislation with Trump’s latest priorities in it, the bill would have to head back to the House, Democracy Docket reported, “for another vote — a potentially difficult hurdle given the narrow margin by which it passed initially.”

But, even “without those additions, the bill faces long odds in the Senate, where most legislation requires 60 votes to pass and where Democrats have vowed to block it.”

Republican Majority Leader John Thune has said he opposes changing the Senate’s filibuster rules to help the bill’s passage.

READ MORE: ‘Dreaming of Gilead?’ WaPo Hit for Op-Ed Mourning Lack of Evangelicals in ‘Halls of Power’

 

Image via Reuters

Continue Reading

News

‘Pure Amateur Hour’: Trump Slammed for ‘Absolutely Racing to Betray His Voters’

Published

on

President Donald Trump and his administration are under fire for what critics say is a lack of planning for his war against Iran. The fallout is already being felt in the economy, from rising gas prices to sinking financial markets, and a myriad of other potential crises.

“I’ve seen a lot of Presidents fall short of their promises but I’ve never seen any President just doing the opposite of everything promised on purpose,” charged U.S. Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI). “Prices, Epstein, wars. Just absolutely racing to betray his voters.”

One hour later, he followed up, writing: “Did they think this through?”

The Atlantic’s Karim Sadjadpour earlier this week reported, “I have spoken with current and former U.S. officials privy to the decision making” on Iran, “who describe a total lack of planning and contradictory aims among those worried about the war effort and those more concerned about the war’s domestic political implications.”

Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Ken Martin earlier in the week charged: “Trump and his incompetent administration had no plan to get Americans out of danger after their planned attack on Iran. Now, American citizens are stuck in an active war zone. This is a complete disaster.”

READ MORE: ‘Dreaming of Gilead?’ WaPo Hit for Op-Ed Mourning Lack of Evangelicals in ‘Halls of Power’

On Friday, the State Department said that 24,000 Americans had returned from the Middle East, but thousands more remain. The “vast majority” of those who returned “were able to make their way home on their own through commercial means,” the Associated Press reported.

The rapidly rising price of oil and gas, and access to them, appear to be among critics’ greatest concerns.

“Apparently no one in the White House thought starting a war in the Middle East might affect oil prices,” lamented U.S. Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). “Now families are paying the price at the pump for pure amateur hour.”

Longtime journalist Jim Roberts delved even further.

“Listening to White House official Kevin Hassett this morning is making it crystal clear that the Trump administration had no plan for dealing with the disruption of energy supplies in the Mideast,” he wrote, adding: “And now the Pentagon is trying to figure out how to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson warned, “By April, energy experts say, the Iran War could be a full blown energy crisis.”

Citing reporting from the Financial Times, macroeconomist Philip Pilkington wrote that the “Trump administration forgot to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve before launching Total War in the Middle East.”

Patrick De Haan, the widely cited head of Petroleum Analysis at Gas Buddy, referencing President Donald Trump’s remarks about the price of gas rising, warned: “it doesn’t appear the admin is yet aware there’s actually a problem, so that means there’s nothing yet to fix. I do hope this changes soon.”

READ MORE: ‘Flashing Red’: Jobs Report Sparks Expert Warnings of Recession — or Even Stagflation

 

Image via Reuters 

Continue Reading

News

‘Dreaming of Gilead?’ WaPo Hit for Op-Ed Mourning Lack of Evangelicals in ‘Halls of Power’

Published

on

Washington Post readers are pushing back against the paper and an op-ed that laments what its author sees as a shortage of evangelical Christians in the “halls of power.”

“Evangelicals are 23 percent of U.S. adults and one of the most loyal Republican voting blocs, with 81 percent backing Donald Trump in 2024,” writes author Aaron M. Renn. “Yet despite six of the nine Supreme Court justices being appointed by Republican presidents, there are no evangelicals on the Supreme Court.”

The Supreme Court “is just one of the many elite institutions in which evangelicals are absent or underrepresented,” he continues. Declaring that evangelicals “have excelled in politics,” he points to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) and House Speaker Mike Johnson as examples.

Arguing that evangelicals “are also prominent in well-run and profitable businesses with relatively low cultural impact, such as food processing (Tyson Foods) and retail (Hobby Lobby),” he says that “they are all but absent from the leadership of prestigious universities, major foundations, Big Tech companies, leading financial firms and large media companies.”

READ MORE: ‘Flashing Red’: Jobs Report Sparks Expert Warnings of Recession — or Even Stagflation

“A stronger evangelical presence in elite institutions could strengthen them while addressing polarization and public mistrust,” he continues. “The lack of evangelicals in the halls of power contributes to anti-institutional public sentiment. It also deprives those institutions of an important pool of talent.”

Washington Post readers scorched the op-ed and the paper.

“The author remarked, more than once, of the lack of formal education among the vast numbers of evangelicals,” wrote one reader. “He then questions the lack of said evangelicals on corporate and college boards and in executive offices. Am I the only one seeing a connection here?”

“Is this not a request for a new DEI program to benefit evangelicals?” asked a reader.

“I am an evangelical Christian,” said a critic. “Please don’t hold up Mike Johnson or Josh Hawley as an example of what Christ calls us to be. Perhaps the reason for our absence in the halls of power is the fact that the majority chose to elect an amoral, corrupt narcissist to be president. We should be absent from that depth of depravity.”

READ MORE: Revealed: The Real Reason Kristi Noem Was Fired

One reader encouraged the author to “go see the musical Godspell and see just how far off the mark the American Evangelicals are.”

“Since when did adherence to fundamentalist religious beliefs become a litmus test for government or institutional leadership?” asked a reader. “Aren’t we currently bombing a country based on that system? This ‘newspaper’ is devolving into an internet forum.”

“So now MAGA wants DEI for Evangelicals,” said one reader. “This is fantastic stand-up comedy material.”

“In some cases, not all, the author is confusing evangelical with fundamentalist,” wrote one critic. “The author is also narrowing the meaning of evangelical by using a political frame, not a theological frame. Many evangelicals define themselves via strict adherence to Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount (or the Plain) … I wish the author had explored at least modestly the increasing breadth of what the designation ‘evangelical’ represents in Christianity, not on Capital Hill.”

“Do you expect to be trusted in fields of science when you deny evolution?” asked a reader.

“Evangelical Christianity is the antithesis of intellectual pursuit, science, and progress,” wrote a reader.

And one critic, appearing to refer to “The Handmaid’s Tale,” charged: “Dreaming of Gilead, are you?”

READ MORE: Trump’s Iran War Triggers Gas Price Shock — Especially in Red America

 

Image via Reuters 

 

 

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2020 AlterNet Media.