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Wisconsin: Two Wins But A Big Loss. Exclusive Analysis Shows GOP Strong

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The Wisconsin recall election Tuesday resulted in the Democrats taking two Senate seats from the Republicans, but four Republicans retained their seats, resulting in a perceived loss overall — if you ask the Republicans — as the Democrats failed to take the majority in the Senate. If you ask the Democrats, taking two seats away from Republicans is a huge win. Both are correct. Democrats needed  one additional seat to swing the balance of power, which now stands at 17 Republicans and 16 Democrats.

But the big loss for Democrats is not that they failed to win the Senate. Looking at the total number of votes cast across the state, there was a substantially wide margin favoring Republicans overall.

New York Times statistician and author of the fivethirtyeight blog, Nate Silver, Tuesday before the polls closed, wrote, “If you are going to read into the results, it is probably best to compare them to Mr. Walker’s performance in 2010 rather than the margins that the state senators themselves achieved that year.”

There were 184,228 Republican votes cast in total, (regardless of district breakdown,) and 165,130 Democratic votes lost in total. 52.7% to 47.3%.

Governor Scott Walker won the state by a 52.25% to 46.48% margin.

Additionally, contrary to what the mainstream media has been reporting, these are not solidly Republican districts.

“All of these seats can be classified as being in swing districts, having voted for Mr. Walker, a Republican, in 2010 but for President Obama in 2008. Most are a couple of points more Republican than Wisconsin as a whole,” Silver wrote.

“If some Republican incumbent was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote in 2010, but survives the recall with 55 percent of the vote, it would be dubious to cite that as a sign of progress for Democrats since the elections were contested under substantially different circumstances,” Silver adds. I disagree, since the issues will be the same in 2012 if there is a recall election for Walker.

So, looking at the four districts the Republicans kept, what do the numbers look like?

In District 2, Cowles easily retained his seat with a 60% to 40% win. But in 2008, Cowles won with 99.35% of the vote, and in 2004, with 89.13%. I’d still call that a harbinger for Walker.

In District 8, Darling won with a 54-46 margin. But in 2008, she won with 50.46% of the vote. so, not a win for Democrats at all.

In District 10, Harsdorf won with a 58-42 margin. In 2008, she won with 56.4 – 43.49%. So, she actually got a greater chunk of the votes last night. Bad for the Dems.

Lastly, in District 14, Olsen has never faced a Democratic challenger. Last night he won with only 52% of the vote. Not a good sign for him, or Walker.

Bottom line, the Democrats put two more Dems into the Wisconsin state Senate. That’s huge. But if anyone is looking at this as a good sign for 2012, or for recalling Walker, I’d say we have even more work to do. The Democrats did a great job. The Republicans had more money. Of course, we can still claim foul play with the repeated poor performance from Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus.

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White House Defends Trump’s Right to Share His ‘Opinions’ Iran Has US Missiles

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt defended what she claimed is President Donald Trump‘s right to share his opinion that Iran has U.S. Tomahawk missiles, a major weapon currently only in the possession of the United States, Australia, and the U.K.

On Monday, President Trump said Iran had U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles when asked if the United States would accept responsibility for the killing of at least 165 people at an Iranian girls’ school.

“Whether it’s Iran or somebody else … a Tomahawk is very generic,” Trump said, Newsweek reported. He also claimed that the missile is “sold and used by other countries” and that Iran “also has some Tomahawks.”

Newsweek noted that when pressed on why he appeared to be the only one making that claim, Trump said, “Because I just don’t know enough about it.”

He added that he was “willing to live with” the findings of any official investigation.

READ MORE: ‘Looking to Throw in the Towel?’: Trump Mocked as Administration Again Switches Priorities

“There has never been an indication that Iran has any Tomahawks,” CNN reported, “which are made by US defense manufacturer Raytheon for the US military, subject to strict export controls and not the ‘generic’ product Trump claimed Monday.”

On Tuesday, Leavitt chastised a reporter who asked about the president’s apparently erroneous claim.

“The president has a right to share his opinions with the American public,” she said, “but he has said he’ll accept the conclusion of that investigation, and, frankly, we’re not going to be harassed by the New York Times, who’s been putting out a lot of articles on this, making claims that have just not been verified by the Department of War to quickly wrap up this investigation, because the New York Times is calling on us to do so.”

The Atlantic’s Tom Nichols, a retired U.S. Naval War College professor, mockingly responded, “Stop pointing out that the president has no idea what he’s talking about.”

READ MORE: ‘Trains My Hands for War’: Hegseth’s ‘Militant’ Bible Remarks Draw Backlash

 

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Democrats Warn Trump on Path to Put US Troops on the Ground

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President Donald Trump‘s claim that his war against Iran may soon be coming to an end is being rejected by Senate Democrats, who warn that the administration may be on a path to putting boots on the ground in a “forever war.”

After attending a bipartisan briefing, U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, told reporters, “I emerged from this briefing as dissatisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years in the Senate.”

“We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground, in Iran,” he said, warning about “potentially huge consequences to American lives.”

U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) also expressed grave doubts.

READ MORE: ‘Trains My Hands for War’: Hegseth’s ‘Militant’ Bible Remarks Draw Backlash

“What I heard is not just concerning, it is disturbing,” said Senator Rosen, who also serves on the Armed Services Committee, as CNBC reported. “I’m not sure what the endgame is or what their plans are.”

She said that if President Trump “does want to put us in a forever war — which it seems like he does — he needs to come out and let us be able to have that discussion.”

CNBC reported that the “concerns from Democrats who attended a bipartisan classified briefing with military brass on Tuesday stand in stark contrast with the president, who on Monday suggested the U.S. may be nearing the completion of its operation. Trump’s statements sent slumping markets soaring and cratered oil prices that had skyrocketed in recent days.”

Democrats are warning that there is no end in sight, CNBC noted, and reported that the “war dragging on could also see markets whip back and oil costs continue to soar, especially as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil remains largely impassible.”

After the Senate briefing, CBS News reported that “U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.”

READ MORE: ‘Looking to Throw in the Towel?’: Trump Mocked as Administration Again Switches Priorities

 

 

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‘Trains My Hands for War’: Hegseth’s ‘Militant’ Bible Remarks Draw Backlash

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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth quoted the Bible — specifically the Old Testament — on Tuesday during remarks on the progress of the war against Iran, leaving some to express concerns about Christian nationalism and his potentially executing a holy or religious war.

Noting that he had just returned from Dover Air Force Base to accept the dignified transfer of another service member killed in the Iran war, Hegseth said, “I’ll close with Scripture, drawing strength from Psalm 144.”

“Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle,” he said. “He is my loving God and my fortress. My stronghold and my deliverer, my shield, in whom I take refuge. May the Lord grant unyielding strength and refuge to our warriors. Unbreakable protection to them in our homeland. And total victory over those who seek to harm them. Amen.”

Critics slammed his introduction of the religious text.

At The New Republic, Malcolm Ferguson wrote: “The Christian nationalist undertones of this war are getting even more obvious.”

READ MORE: ‘Looking to Throw in the Towel?’: Trump Mocked as Administration Again Switches Priorities

“Listening to Hegseth read Psalm 144 feels like an ominous justification for further aggression rather than a comforting message,” Ferguson said.

“While it’s a lovely verse traditionally attributed to King David, it does not accurately portray the reality of the situation whatsoever,” he wrote. “The United States is the Goliath of this story, along with Israel. The countries’ joint attacks of aggression have killed over 1,200 Iranians, many of them young schoolgirls. Iranian fuel depots were hit so hard that oil rained from the sky in Tehran on Sunday. Seven American service members have died because a president who promised peace sent them to war for money and regime change, not liberation.”

Professor of public policy Josh Cowen responded to Secretary Hegseth’s reading of scripture: “He could have chosen Jesus’s words ‘Blessed are they who mourn’ or if he was really craving a psalm, ‘The Lord is my shepherd.'”

“Instead he’s sporting militant quotes not to assuage grief but to justify his actions that caused it,” Cowen said.

Dutch journalist Michael van der Galien, according to a translation on X, called it “concerning that Pete Hegseth uses a passage from the Old Testament to suggest that God would bless a specific war between America, Israel, and Iran.”

“From a Catholic perspective, war is always a tragedy and only justified under strict conditions of just war theory, such as self-defense and the protection of innocents, not as a divine mandate.”

Professor Massimo Faggioli, a Church historian, according to a translation on X, wrote of Hegseth’s Scripture quoting, “they’ll do absolutely anything to make it look like a religious war.”

READ MORE: Cracks Widen as Trump Presses GOP on Hardline Voter ID Plan

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