FACTS:
- Every major, legitimate poll and pollster finds both majority support (or, plurality approaching majority support) for marriage equality and a dramatic embrace for marriage equality and LGBT rights in America.
- The trajectory of support for equality is unstoppable.
- Two weeks after the President’s May 9 announcement, the only groups who have come out against the President’s support are those who already oppose same-sex marriage, whereas those who announced support include previously undeclared or opposed politicians, cultural leaders, and organizations, from Senator Harry Reid to rappers 50 Cent and Jay-Z, to the NAACP.
- There has been no Democrat announcing a switch to Romney because of Obama’s same-sex marriage support, but there have been Romney supporters moving to Obama for his embrace of marriage equality.
- Had Obama either come out against marriage equality or not voiced his opinion at all he would have lost a portion of his base. Not losing support in this case is gaining support.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll teased this morning and fully released just minutes ago tonight has had pundits and political analysts claiming the poll results find President Obama’s support for same sex marriage announcement two weeks ago on May 9 hasn’t had any affect on his polling numbers. Here’s why that meme is wrong.
Mark Murray at NBC News, who first reported the poll this morning wrote:
In the poll, a combined 17 percent say it makes them “much more likely” or “somewhat more likely” they will vote for him. That’s compared with a combined 20 percent who say the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.
Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent say the president’s support for gay marriage doesn’t make a difference in their vote — including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest.
“From my distance, it looks more like a voting draw than anything else,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
But here’s the money quote:
In addition, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that a majority — 54 percent — would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal. Twenty four percent would actively support such a law, while 30 percent would favor it but not actively support it.
By comparison, a combined 40 percent say they would oppose such a law.
54% is the largest majority we’ve ever seen in a same-sex marriage poll. And given that a recent Gallup poll showed a three percentage point drop in equality support, to 50%, 54% in a different poll is strong.
Maggie Haberman at Politico this morning said, “it’s worth remembering that the other metric that matters for Obama on this is the one in the recent NYT/CBS poll, where 67 percent of voters viewed Obama’s coments as political.”
Nit really. The President is a politician. While less than Romney, most Americans know that candidate Obama makes some decisions based on politics.
Nate Silver, the New York Times statistician, said via Twitter, “There’s been a dramatic zero-point shift in the polls since Obama came out for gay marriage.”
And Ezra Klein, at The Washington Post, who mentioned the Silver tweet, also today wrote:
As of this morning, they show Obama with a 1.7 percent lead. Looking back at the Wonkbook Dashboards, on the morning of May 9th, however, Obama had a 0.2 percent lead in the RCP head-to-head average. So since coming out for gay marriage, his numbers have slightly improved.
Gallup on Friday released a poll that found that American’s perceptions of the country’s moral values have declined — but not because of anyone’s position on same-sex marriage — rather, because of a perceived lack of civility and tolerance.
So let’s remember a few facts.
First and foremost, the number of voters who are going to switch from President Obama to Mitt Romney solely because of the President’s new support for same-sex marriage is slim, if not immeasurable. Some claim the President may lose a sliver of the African-American vote, but that’s negligible at best. Let’s remember, too that some African Americans are gay, and some have gay friends, neighbors, and family.
Another poll, released just days before the Fox News poll found that President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage equality is actually more popular among Blacks and Hispanics than among whites. Overall, 45% of whites view the President’s support of marriage equality favorably, while 47% of Hispanics do, and 54% of Blacks do as well.
Most Americans knew in their hearts the president was always a support of LGBT rights, and, given the country’s dramatic embrace of gay marriage, there was no chance he was ever going to come out against equality in the long run.
But perhaps most important is last week’s Gallup poll that found the majority of Americans see gay and lesbian relationships as morally acceptable, and the “new normal,” rising 18 percentage points in 10 years.
Of course, last week, a Fox News commissioned poll on same-sex marriage supposedly found that a mere 37% of Americans support same sex marriage. The poll offered a civil unions option for respondents to choose, which 37% did. 25% opted for “no legal recognition†of same-sex relationships. The poll canvassed only 913 registered voters.
On top of all this we have a leaked memo from a top GOP pollster that told Republicans that they had better support same-sex marriage or else face the consequences.
The remaining poll statistics, just released this evening, find:
Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).
Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).
Bottom line: taking a stand on marriage equality was a gamble, that could have backfired on the President. Not only did Obama gain minor ground in the polls, but he re-infused his base and his coffers, and kept his promise. It wasn’t a “wash,” it wasn’t a “draw,” it was a line in the sand that no American president can ever cross. And it earned the President a battle cry and nudged his numbers up.
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