Why The New ‘Obama Gay Marriage Support Is A Wash’ Meme Is Wrong
FACTS:
- Every major, legitimate poll and pollster finds both majority support (or, plurality approaching majority support) for marriage equality and a dramatic embrace for marriage equality and LGBT rights in America.
- The trajectory of support for equality is unstoppable.
- Two weeks after the President’s May 9 announcement, the only groups who have come out against the President’s support are those who already oppose same-sex marriage, whereas those who announced support include previously undeclared or opposed politicians, cultural leaders, and organizations, from Senator Harry Reid to rappers 50 Cent and Jay-Z, to the NAACP.
- There has been no Democrat announcing a switch to Romney because of Obama’s same-sex marriage support, but there have been Romney supporters moving to Obama for his embrace of marriage equality.
- Had Obama either come out against marriage equality or not voiced his opinion at all he would have lost a portion of his base. Not losing support in this case is gaining support.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll teased this morning and fully released just minutes ago tonight has had pundits and political analysts claiming the poll results find President Obama’s support for same sex marriage announcement two weeks ago on May 9 hasn’t had any affect on his polling numbers. Here’s why that meme is wrong.
Mark Murray at NBC News, who first reported the poll this morning wrote:
In the poll, a combined 17 percent say it makes them “much more likely” or “somewhat more likely” they will vote for him. That’s compared with a combined 20 percent who say the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.
Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent say the president’s support for gay marriage doesn’t make a difference in their vote — including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest.
“From my distance, it looks more like a voting draw than anything else,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
But here’s the money quote:
In addition, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that a majority — 54 percent — would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal. Twenty four percent would actively support such a law, while 30 percent would favor it but not actively support it.
By comparison, a combined 40 percent say they would oppose such a law.
54% is the largest majority we’ve ever seen in a same-sex marriage poll. And given that a recent Gallup poll showed a three percentage point drop in equality support, to 50%, 54% in a different poll is strong.
Maggie Haberman at Politico this morning said, “it’s worth remembering that the other metric that matters for Obama on this is the one in the recent NYT/CBS poll, where 67 percent of voters viewed Obama’s coments as political.”
Nit really. The President is a politician. While less than Romney, most Americans know that candidate Obama makes some decisions based on politics.
Nate Silver, the New York Times statistician, said via Twitter, “There’s been a dramatic zero-point shift in the polls since Obama came out for gay marriage.”
And Ezra Klein, at The Washington Post, who mentioned the Silver tweet, also today wrote:
As of this morning, they show Obama with a 1.7 percent lead. Looking back at the Wonkbook Dashboards, on the morning of May 9th, however, Obama had a 0.2 percent lead in the RCP head-to-head average. So since coming out for gay marriage, his numbers have slightly improved.
Gallup on Friday released a poll that found that American’s perceptions of the country’s moral values have declined — but not because of anyone’s position on same-sex marriage — rather, because of a perceived lack of civility and tolerance.
So let’s remember a few facts.
First and foremost, the number of voters who are going to switch from President Obama to Mitt Romney solely because of the President’s new support for same-sex marriage is slim, if not immeasurable. Some claim the President may lose a sliver of the African-American vote, but that’s negligible at best. Let’s remember, too that some African Americans are gay, and some have gay friends, neighbors, and family.
Another poll, released just days before the Fox News poll found that President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage equality is actually more popular among Blacks and Hispanics than among whites. Overall, 45% of whites view the President’s support of marriage equality favorably, while 47% of Hispanics do, and 54% of Blacks do as well.
Most Americans knew in their hearts the president was always a support of LGBT rights, and, given the country’s dramatic embrace of gay marriage, there was no chance he was ever going to come out against equality in the long run.
But perhaps most important is last week’s Gallup poll that found the majority of Americans see gay and lesbian relationships as morally acceptable, and the “new normal,” rising 18 percentage points in 10 years.
Of course, last week, a Fox News commissioned poll on same-sex marriage supposedly found that a mere 37% of Americans support same sex marriage. The poll offered a civil unions option for respondents to choose, which 37% did. 25% opted for “no legal recognition†of same-sex relationships. The poll canvassed only 913 registered voters.
On top of all this we have a leaked memo from a top GOP pollster that told Republicans that they had better support same-sex marriage or else face the consequences.
The remaining poll statistics, just released this evening, find:
Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).
Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).
Bottom line: taking a stand on marriage equality was a gamble, that could have backfired on the President. Not only did Obama gain minor ground in the polls, but he re-infused his base and his coffers, and kept his promise. It wasn’t a “wash,” it wasn’t a “draw,” it was a line in the sand that no American president can ever cross. And it earned the President a battle cry and nudged his numbers up.
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Maine Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner is under fire after releasing a video declaring that new allegations against him are false, yet he is “taking time to reflect” on a path forward.
Politico on Monday afternoon reported that a woman who dated Platner, Jenny Racicot, “says he forced her to have sex with him nearly five years ago despite her repeated objections, an allegation Platner denies.”
“Racicot said she had an on-and-off relationship with Platner,” Politico reported, “for more than two years before he entered her rural Maine home uninvited one night in late 2021, deeply intoxicated, and forced himself on her while she repeatedly told him to stop. She said she cut off contact with him after telling him the encounter was not consensual.”
In a video posted to social media eleven minutes after the Politico story dropped, Platner says, “I wanted to directly address the troubling, serious, and false allegations against me. Any accusation of nonconsensual behavior is categorically false.”
He said he and his supporters “were united in a love of Maine, a belief that our politics must change, in a focus on defeating Susan Collins.”
“So, regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful the political reality will inflict, we are taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to, and the goal of defeating Susan Collins.”
“Those were the goals when we launched this campaign. And they remain my goals today.”
“Throughout it all, you never turned your back on me. And I will not turn my back on you now. Every one of you deserves to see that vision come to fruition and see Susan Collins defeated. And we will use every tool at our disposal to do so.”
The Bulwark’s Tim Miller, a political commentator who served as the communications director for the Jeb Bush 2016 presidential campaign, blasted Platner.
“I’m sorry but ‘we are taking time to reflect on the best path forward’ is not an option on the table,” Miller wrote. “Either it’s false and you campaign with vigor or it’s true and you get out / apologize to everyone you let down.”
Journalist Ryan Grim, commenting on Platner’s video, noted that Platner “strongly suggests he is considering dropping out. Already Troy Jackson and Chellie Pingree, both gubernatorial candidates, are being kicked around in Maine circles as potential replacements.”
Several others, including Puck News’ Peter Hamby, predicted Platner will be dropping out.
Platner had postponed several campaign events before the Politico story was published.
— Graham Platner for Senate (@grahamformaine) July 6, 2026
President Donald Trump is facing backlash after posting a video of children — including showing their unblurred faces — graduating from kindergarten, with some of the girls purportedly wearing hijabs.
“President Trump posted a captionless video of graduating kindergarteners on Truth Social on Monday, goading his supporters into verbally attacking little children simply for being Muslim,” The New Republic reported. “The clip is from Gateway STEM Academy, a majority-Black K-8 public charter school in St. Paul, Minnesota. It shows about 21 children in caps and gowns on stage singing a song together. Most of the girls are wearing hijabs.”
The original post of the video which Trump reposted reads: “Public school in St. Paul, Minnesota. Every girl is in a hijab … in kindergarten.”
Trump did not add any comments. TNR called the post “Islamophobic, weird, and creepy,” while noting that the comments section of Trump’s post was filled with calls “by racist, xenophobic MAGA supporters” to “deport the children and ban hijabs.”
TNR also noted that it “should come as no surprise that Trump isn’t above attacking children who just learned how to read, but this post is still particularly discomforting—and will certainly contribute to the already potent level of anti-Muslim sentiment in the U.S. and in Minnesota.”
Critics blasted Trump.
“There is something deeply unsettling about the president of the United States—the most powerful person in the world—going after kindergarten schoolchildren in Minnesota because they wore hijabs, as Trump has done this morning on his website,” The Bulwark’s Sam Stein wrote.
One social media commentator wrote, “Trump posted an unblurred video of more than a dozen Muslim kindergartners to Truth Social, exposing the children’s faces while targeting them for their religion.”
Another added, “Trump is a bigot. The president took to Truth Social to attack kindergarteners in hijabs. These are little kids. The president isn’t just a bigot, he’s also a coward.”
The original video was posted to the X social media platform in June.
U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) at the time commented, “If you are in a public school in America, you should be speaking english.”
Image via Reuters
President Donald Trump’s apparent efforts to delay releasing the $5.8 million civil judgment to E. Jean Carroll are being met with a warning by the journalist’s legal team, who suggest there could be a legal maneuver for Trump to employ to forgo paying the judgment in either of the two cases he lost.
According to The Guardian, on July 4, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan ordered Trump to release the $5.8 million judgment, which is in escrow, to Carroll by this coming Tuesday — or explain why he would not do so.
Carroll’s attorneys think Trump may be trying to buy time to mount another legal strategy, telling the judge that Trump’s request for an extension “appears to be little more than yet another play for time.”
“The case is separate from Trump’s appeal of a Manhattan civil jury’s 2024 award of $83.3m to Carroll for defamation,” The Guardian explains. “But her lawyers have suggested a legal scenario in which the president might seek to conjoin the cases and further delay payment of both.”
Carroll’s attorney Roberta Kaplan (no relation to the judge) wrote, “We can only assume that defendant is seeking … to buy time so he can try to concoct some new basis to put off paying plaintiff presumably in connection with his forthcoming petition and motion for a rehearing.”
Trump’s former attorney, Justin Smith, in one of his final acts, wrote to the Supreme Court suggesting that his client would be appealing the $83.3 million civil judgment.
Smith argued that the Supreme Court “may wish to consider the petitions together,” given they involve the same parties.
The larger judgment case involves possible questions of presidential immunity, and that has Carroll’s attorneys concerned.
“A conjoined case, Carroll’s lawyers fear, could result in both judgments being wiped out,” The Guardian reports.
The president has also made clear he is no fan of Judge Kaplan, after the jurist made several rulings that “angered” Trump.
“What else can you expect from a Trump Hating, Clinton appointed judge, who went out of his way to make sure that the result was as negative as it could possible be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in 2023, “speaking to, and in control of, a jury from an anti-Trump area which is probably the worst place in the US for me to get a fair ‘trial’.”
Image via Reuters
Platner Scorched Over ‘Taking Time’ Video After New Accusation
Trump Sparks Fury Online After Posting Unblurred Video of Muslim Kindergartners in Hijabs
One Legal Maneuver Threatens to Undo Everything E. Jean Carroll Won
Inside the Group Helping MAGA Voters Walk Away — And What Finally Pushed Them
