NY Times’ Nate Silver Skyrockets Obama Chances Of Winning
Nate Silver, the highly respected creator of the FiveThirtyEight elections blog at the New York Times, just increased President Obama‘s chances of winning to 79%, with a whopping 300 Electoral College votes. Recently, Obama’s lowest chance of winning was put at 61.1% on October 12, and it’s been climbing steadily ever since. Silver today points to Obama’s battleground states “firewall” as holding — good news for the President’s hopes of winning the electoral college vote, the one that truly matters, although he still projects Obama winning the popular vote as well, by a very slim 50.5%
Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped. Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind. (More about that in a moment.) Meanwhile, Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College. This was particularly apparent on Wednesday, a day when there were a remarkable number of polls, 27, released in the battleground states.
Meanwhile, unsurprisingly, Silver has been getting a walloping by right wing radicals. The Atlantic Wire had perhaps the best take on this a few days ago: “People Who Can’t Do Math Are So Mad At Nate Silver.” And, of course, there were the predictable attacks on Silver from those who really hate him, like the so-called “Unskewed polls” guy: he’s gay. Silver responded:
Unskewedpolls argument: Nate Silver seems kinda gay + ??? = Romney landslide!examiner.com/article/the-fa…
— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 27, 2012
Â
Enjoy this piece?
… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.
NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.
Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.