Conservatives are evenly split in their support for DOMA, the 1996 law that bans federal recognition of same-sex marriages and allows states to choose to do the same. Based upon a poll released yesterday by HRC, the Human Rights Campaign, 45% of conservatives polled indicated support for DOMA, and 44% indicated they did not support the law, well within the margin of error.
These numbers were not published publicly in the DOMA poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, so to get them I emailed Michael Cole-Schwartz, HRC’s Press Secretary, who tells me that in addition to the 45-44 split for conservatives, only 21% of liberals favor DOMA, while 70% of liberals are opposed, and even moderates are heavily against support of DOMA: 27% of moderates support DOMA, and 56% oppose it.
Read: “The Republican Lie About DOMA“
Today, dual bills were introduced in the House and in the Senate to repeal the law, already declared unconstitutional by two federal court judges and the president, who stated last month he would no longer defend  DOMA in court.
Yesterday, in “Americans to DOMA: Drop Dead,” I wrote that 51% of voters (not respondents, but voters) are opposed to DOMA and want it repealed, and only 34% of voters believe DOMA should stay the law of the land.
Thanks to a few readers who were pleased about this study’s results but then claimed they didn’t know if the survey was valid, (“Honestly, I don’t think this is a valid method of statistical testing. I don’t think the results are reliable, as much as I dearly wish they were,” wrote one,) I delved into the results and was very pleased.
You will be too.
But first, back to HRC’s Michael Cole-Schwartz, who in response to my question on the validity of the poll, tells me via email, “The poll was conducted by an internationally renowned polling firm, using industry-standard methodologies. In fact, in the memo on the poll’s findings, the research firm lays out how the poll was conducted – including the sample size, the date of the interviews and the margin of error. Additionally, the questionnaire has been made available so people can look at the exact working of questions and the order in which they were asked.â€
So, if there are any nay-sayers, there you have it. Feel free to take another look at the poll.
I also looked into Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, who performed the survey. They list many accolades on their website, from a wide range of sources, including the Christian Science Monitor to the National Journal to The New Yorker.
Additionally, I looked into Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s CEO, who has worked internationally. Prior to his current role as a leading Democratic pollster, Greenberg earned a Harvard Ph.D. and taught at Yale for a decade.
Now, here’s the interesting part of the survey.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner used results only from registered voters, 92% who voted in 2008, 80% who voted in 2010, and 85% say they are “almost certain” they will vote in 2012.
65% say they “feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” so no strong Democratic bias, and in keeping with what Reuters/Ipsos reports at 64% last week.
Respondents were pretty evenly split on their feelings for President Obama, 42% saying they felt “cool,” 44% saying they felt “warm.”
Read: “The Republicans In The House Want To Defend DOMA? Bring It On!“
Overall, 42% approved of “the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives,” and 45% did not. Again, clearly, no strong Democratic bias.
44% graduated college, 53% did not.
33% were aged 39 or lower, 20% were aged 40-49, and 44% were aged 50 or older.
As we know, the more educated and the younger a respondent is, the more likely they are to support civil rights for gays and lesbians. This clearly is not a group that is skewed younger and more educated.
Here’s the kicker:
38% were Democrats or leaned Democrat, 12% Independents, and 41% were Republicans or leaned Republican.
38% self-identified as conservative, 34% as moderate, and only 18% as liberal. Again, clearly these are not respondents particularly likely to support civil rights for same-sex couples.
72% were some form of Christian, 43% attend church at least once a week. Again, clearly these are not respondents particularly likely to support civil rights for same-sex couples.
Bottom line here, 51% of Americans — a majority –Â believe DOMA should be repealed.
Any questions?