A New York Times op-ed by a military expert argues that blockades don’t work the way President Trump thinks — and that his blockade of Iran is “unlikely” to succeed.

Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a foreign policy think tank, explains that Trump’s blockade should not have come as a surprise — he’s used them already against Venezuela and Cuba.

While the Strait of Hormuz was open before Trump started his war against Iran, Iran chose to close it. Trump’s response was to launch a blockade of Iranian ports, to force a deal.

“But Tehran’s effective closure of the strait since the United States and Israel attacked two months ago has emerged as the war’s most bedeviling problem and one Mr. Trump is desperate to fix,” Kavanagh writes. Trump’s goal is to “choke Iran’s economy and force the country’s leaders to reopen the strait and accept Washington’s terms of surrender.”

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That tactic is “unlikely to work for the same reasons the United States finds itself facing strategic defeat by a weaker adversary: a mismatch of stakes and time horizons.”

Kavanagh explains that the way blockades work is an equation of time and will. And Iran has both. Trump, she suggests, does not.

“While Iran has gained the upper hand in this conflict by extending and surviving what it considers an existential war,” Kavanagh writes, “Mr. Trump wants a fast and decisive victory, something a blockade cannot deliver.”

She points to President Abraham Lincoln’s blockade against the Confederacy during the Civil War. The war lasted four more years. And she points to the British naval blockade of Germany in World War I. That war also lasted another four years. Today, “Iran can likely endure the U.S. blockade for months without facing economic collapse.”

For Trump, “this timeline is likely to be unacceptable. His impatience with the war is evident in his increasingly erratic Truth Social posts and near-constant assertions that the war is already over,” Kavanagh says. “In a test of wills, Tehran has the advantage and a higher pain tolerance. With their survival on the line, Iran’s leaders can afford to be patient.”

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President Donald Trump is being criticized for his latest Truth Social post in which he describes himself as an “extraordinarily brilliant person” yet admits he cannot understand the language in Virginia’s redistricting referendum — which more than 1.5 million voters passed Tuesday night.

The president also claimed the election was “rigged,” while offering no evidence, and was frustrated because ballot counting went more heavily in Democrats’ favor (the “Yes” vote) as results were counted.

“A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA!” Trump declared.

“All day long Republicans were winning, the Spirit was unbelievable, until the very end when, of course, there was a massive ‘Mail In Ballot Drop!’ Where have I heard that before — And the Democrats eked out another Crooked Victory!”

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“In addition to everything else,” he continued, “the language on the Referendum was purposefully unintelligible and deceptive.”

“As everyone knows, I am an extraordinarily brilliant person, and even I had no idea what the hell they were talking about in the Referendum, and neither do they! Let’s see if the Courts will fix this travesty of ‘Justice.'”

Critics blasted Trump’s remarks.

“I am begging for someone to explain to the President how election returns work,” wrote Sarah Longwell, the founder and editor of The Bulwark.

“You weren’t ‘winning all day,’ you were ahead before counting finished,” wrote progressive commentator Alex Cole. “Those are not the same thing. The real conspiracy is how MAGA convinces itself losing = cheating instead of… losing.”

READ MORE: Republicans Have to Make a Choice Between ‘Reality-Based Data’ and Trump: Benen

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President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at its lowest point of his second term, and since he won’t be on the ballot in November or in 2028, Republicans will have to ask themselves at what point do they accept “reality-based data” and distance themselves from him?

So asks Steve Benen at MS NOW, where he notes that the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll “found Trump’s approval rating at just 36%, which was roughly in line with the latest NBC News survey. For the White House, the Associated Press’ latest national poll was even worse” — coming in at 33%.

The AP reported that even Republicans are showing less faith in his leadership, and added their findings “show a president who is struggling with unfulfilled promises to tame inflation and testing Americans’ patience with a conflict in the Middle East that has dragged on longer than expected.”

Benen notes that it’s been widely assumed that there is a floor below which Trump cannot sink — his base will never leave him. But, he posits, “the AP poll suggests it’s time to reassess earlier assumptions about just how low his support can go.”

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Some believe that focusing on Trump’s approval rating is “misplaced,” since he is constitutionally prohibited from running again.

But the trouble with that argument is that congressional Republicans are indeed preparing for midterm elections “as the American electorate turns sharply against a GOP president — whom those same congressional Republicans have championed since his return to power.”

The lower Trump’s approval rating drops, the lower his support gets, “the more the party confronts a question about what to do with reality-based data,” says Benen. “Do they take new, sizable steps to distance themselves from a failing and woefully unpopular president, or do they continue to carry Trump’s water and take their chances with a dissatisfied electorate?”

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