A Democratic strategist is warning Democratic voters against complacency, arguing that the “blowout” midterm many are expecting could vanish — and the fix rests with one key demographic.
Writing at The Hill, Celinda Lake says that Republicans still have a massive war chest, Trump loyalists are still winning big, and redistricting efforts are likely to benefit the GOP.
“Democrats should be worried,” says Lake. “Although President Trump’s approval ratings have been in the doldrums and inflation is angering MAGA voters, the fragile agreement with Iran might help Trump’s numbers and revive Republicans’ chances in November.”
Lake says that Democrats should not rely on Trump administration “missteps” to take back control of Congress in November, but rather must “swell” their turnout at the ballot box.
That turnout relies on women voters — and specifically, those women she calls “skippers” and “flippers.”
Skippers are Democratic voters who did not turn out in 2024. Flippers are disaffected Republicans who could choose to vote Democratic.
“Trump has a serious problem when it comes to women’s votes,” says Lake. Citing a recent New York Times-Siena poll, she notes that nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of women disapprove of Trump’s performance. Another poll showed Democrats with a 21-point lead among women over Republicans. And 60 percent of young women disapprove of Trump as well.
There were millions of Democratic skippers, says Lake. And even convincing a small percentage of flippers to vote Democratic could “swing the outcome” of the election, as they’re not just adding one Democratic vote but reducing one Republican vote.
“My team’s analysis of 2024 exit polls showed that if less than 2 percent of Trump’s White non-college educated voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had gone for Harris, she would have won the election,” Lake writes. “It’s likely that flipping a similarly small percentage of women would make the difference this year, even in newly-minted Republican districts.”
Other polls show “a majority of non-college-educated White Americans now disapprove of Trump’s performance.”
Lake warns that while Republicans ought to be frightened by these numbers, bad polling numbers do not automatically translate into votes for Democrats.
“We need to reach and persuade these women to turn out, especially if the Iran war actually ends and gas prices fall,” she writes. “Democrats must do the work to mobilize skippers and create flippers. If we want to lock up a victory in November, these women hold the keys.”
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