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How Iran Hoodwinked Trump With America’s Own Strategies: Columnist
Iran is using America’s playbook against the Trump administration. It has mastered long-standing strategies the U.S. used against Iran to its own benefit.
That’s according to author Edward Fishman, who writes in a New York Times opinion piece, “Iran has learned the lessons of American foreign policy. It has used the tools at its disposal to exacerbate risk, forcing private actors to become unwitting tools of its statecraft.”
Fishman says, “While the Trump administration’s war aims have vacillated between regime change, denuclearization and military degradation, it now has one overriding objective: reopening the strait.”
Iran appears to hold all the cards there.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz, analysts believed, “would require Iran to lay thousands of sea mines and render the strait physically impassable,” making it an unlikely move — especially as Iran also relies on the strait for shipping.
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But Iran, using America’s strategies, “has shown it can disrupt the strait at far lower cost.”
How?
Target just a small number of ships, and let others realize there is a possible threat — effectively shutting down traffic on the Strait.
Fishman explains that this is the same strategy the U.S. used against Iran for decades: threaten international banks to break with Tehran, sanctioning only a small number to convey a broader message.
“By threatening to cut off foreign banks from the dollar unless they severed ties with Iran, they effectively isolated the country from the international financial system,” Fishman explains. “The United States rarely had to follow through on its threats. In a strategy one U.S. official described as ‘killing the chicken to scare the monkeys,’ Washington deployed these so-called secondary sanctions sparingly. On the few occasions they were applied, everyone else got the message. Sanctioning a single Chinese bank was enough to shift the risk tolerance of the rest.”
What happens if other countries adapt this approach?
“If the world deals with the United States by fighting back, rather than negotiating,” Fishman writes, “stability will be harder to achieve — and more costly once won.”
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Image via Reuters
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