Former President Donald Trump is not only the clear frontrunner in the 2024 GOP presidential primary — he also has single-digit leads over Democratic incumbent President Biden in some national polls as well as some swing-state polls.
Wall Street Journal and Emerson College polls released in early December find Trump leading Biden by 4 percent in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, although Biden has a 1 percent lead in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted December 2-5.
But in an article published on December 11, The New Republic’s Walter Shapiro argues that Trump has some major liabilities as a candidate and that Biden can use them against him if he plays his cards right.
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“With the stakes so high,” Shapiro writes, “Democrats keep trying —and failing — to find emotional sustenance in the polls. But Trump has led Biden in 16 of the 21 national horserace polls conducted in the last month. The common explanations for Biden’s poll-vault problems feed the fear factor: the president’s age (81), waning support from Black voters, disaffection among younger voters, and Bronx cheers on handling the economy. But — and, boy, is this a big ‘but’ — polls more than 11 months before a presidential election have the accuracy of a blindfolded archer.”
Shapiro lays out some issues that Biden could use to inflict serious damage on Trump’s campaign in the general election, including: (1) abortion and Trump’s role in the demise of Roe v. Wade, (2) Trump’s legal problems, and (3) Trump’s “threat to democracy.”
“This time around,” Shapiro warns, “Trump has made clear that he intends to be a competent authoritarian surrounded by lackeys rather than just a foam-at-the-mouth-in-the-Oval-Office madman. In every public appearance, Trump gives the impression that in his second term, he wants to have the power to issue orders like, ‘Take that man outside and have him shot.’ Assuming Trump is anointed as the GOP nominee, 2024 is shaping up as America’s first ‘Yes, it can happen here’ election.”
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Read The New Republic’s full article at this link.