More than 27% of voters planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primaries are undecided, according to a new poll.
In an Emerson College poll released Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters, 65.8%, would vote for President Joe Biden in the primary election. No other named candidate comes close; author Marianne Williamson brings in 4.8% of the vote and Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips is polling at 2%. While that may look like good news for Biden, 27.4% of Democratic voters are undecided.
On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump leads at a rate similar to Biden, picking up 63.6% of his party’s voters. No other candidate has over 10%; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is the second most popular Republican candidate with 8.5%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in third with 7.9%. Fewer Republicans are undecided, with only 9.7% saying they were unsure which candidate they would back.
In a 2022 poll from Emerson College, there were much fewer undecided Democratic voters. The poll offered a wider range of potential candidates alongside Biden. At that time, 41.5% went for Biden, with 16.6% going for Vice President Kamala Harris and 11.5% preferring Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Colorado Governor Jared Polis rounded out the race, each pulling less than 10% of the vote. At that time, only 3.8% of Democratic voters were undecided.
The rise in undecided primary voters aligns with a drop in Biden’s popularity. Biden has a 38% approval rating, and a 50% disapproval rating according to Emerson.
“The president’s disapproval has stayed the same this month, while his approval has dropped four points,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said “The president’s approval is the lowest it has been this calendar year, but similar to what it was this time last year when his approval was at 39%.”
In matchups against Trump, Biden is currently losing in the Emerson poll.
“Last November, Biden led Trump by four points, whereas this November, he trails Trump by four. Several key groups have shifted in the past year: Biden led at this time last year among women by seven points, which has reduced to a point this year,” Kimball said.
Biden has also gone down among different demographics when compared to last year. In 2022, Biden had a 61% lead over Trump among Black voters; that’s dropped to 47%. Among Latino voters, Biden’s lead has dropped from 14% over Trump to 3%. When it comes to voters under 50, Trump has pulled ahead of Biden by 1%. In 2022, Biden was beating Trump by 18%.
This year’s poll was conducted between November 17-20, with a sample size of 1,475 and a margin of error of 2.5%.