Powerful Democratic consultants have dropped Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) since she disaffiliated from the Democratic Party to register as an Independent. Their departure will make it more difficult for her to win re-election in her home state if she runs again in 2024.
“NGP VAN, which manages Democratic voter data, is set to cut off Sinema’s access at the end of January, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation,” The Huffington Post reported. “The ad makers who worked with her in 2018, Dixon/Davis Media Group, have split with her campaign. Two other Democratic sources said polling firm Impact Research made the same decision.”
The departures are notable because they’ll limit Sinema’s ability to tout her political accomplishments in advertising and to reach voters who supported her in past elections. Current polling also suggests that she’d face an uphill climb in a future election.
Although Sinema hasn’t yet announced a re-election bid, Arizona Democratic Reps. Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton, are both expected to run for the state’s U.S. Senate seat. If she runs, she’ll likely face a three-way contest against a Democrat and a Republican in the general election.
A recent poll from PPP showed Sinema getting only 13 percent of support from state voters in a three-way race against Gallego (who got 40 percent) and gubernatorial-election-loser Republican Kari Lake (who got 41 percent). While it’s unclear whether Lake would even run for Senate following her narrow 2022 election loss, Sinema’s Independent bid could act as a spoiler for either candidate.
Sinema crafted bipartisan deals on same-sex marriage, gun control, and infrastructure funding, The Huffington Post notes. But she also has a reputation for opposing other social reforms that Democratic voters support, like minimum wage hikes and filibuster reform. She also gained additional favor with Republicans by blocking President Joe Biden’s (D) proposed tax hikes on the wealthy and corporations.
The real challenge for Democrats, if Sinema runs, will be to distance her from their party in a way that will cause her to split the Republican vote rather than the Democratic one.