The US intelligence community has prioritized attempting to understand Vladimir Putin’s mental state as his invasion of Ukraine continues to escalate, CNN reported Tuesday.
“The efforts come as longtime Putin-watchers have publicly speculated that his behavior has become increasingly erratic and irrational. Since he launched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last Wednesday, senior US officials have asked intelligence agencies to gather any new information they can on how the Russian leader is faring and how his mindset has been impacted by the unexpectedly unified and tough response from European neighbors and allies around the world,” CNN reported. “The US intelligence community has spent decades decoding the former KGB officer, who has effectively ruled Russia since 1999. But while the United States has tremendous institutional knowledge of the man, it has a notoriously poor view into his day-to-day decision-making.”
This is complicated by the fact Putin’s goal may be to project instability as a negotiating tactic.
“But the sudden burst of interest reflects a sense among some intelligence officials that Putin’s decision-making in Ukraine has been out of character – perhaps due to what some previous intelligence reports suggest has been protracted isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic,” CNN reported. “In a classified briefing for lawmakers on Monday evening, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, said the US intelligence community does not have good insight into Putin’s state of mind, according to a lawmaker who was present.”
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One prominent report has been making the rounds, but it is a secondhand report that reportedly originated from a source with “excellent access.”
“One such report that has circulated to more than a dozen agencies cites a source who has relayed that Putin’s behavior has become ‘highly concerning and unpredictable’ over just the last two days, according to a copy obtained by CNN,” the network reported. “The source behind the report told the FBI that Putin ‘expressed extreme anger’ over Western sanctions put in place in response to his attack on Ukraine and ‘felt that the sanctions had escalated the situation faster than he expected and beyond what he considered to be appropriate.’ Precisely which sanctions so infuriated Putin is unknown; that portion of the report is redacted.”
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