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2020 Road to the White House

Trump’s Been Running for Re-Election Since Day One. Raising $30 Million Is a Really Bad Sign for Him – Here’s Why

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President Donald Trump is the first president in history to file papers to run for re-election on the day he was sworn in to office. That allowed him to set up a re-election campaign right away, and to use the Office of the President as a fundraising prop, something he loves to do.

For example, on Wednesday the President traveled to Texas, where he held not one, not two, but three campaign events – including a fundraising dinner.

But tucked in between all those campaign events, was this entry on his official schedule: “The President delivers remarks and signs an Executive Order on Energy and Infrastructure.”

That allowed him to hand taxpayers the bill for some of his trip.

Sunday night and Monday morning headlines heralded Trump’s fundraising prowess:

“The Trump campaign amassed a vast $30 million reelection war chest at the start of 2019, as much as the top 2 Democratic challengers combined,” Business Insider wrote.

Trump Raises $30 Million in First Quarter, Smashing Democratic Numbers,” New York Magazine touted.

Trump of course should be raking in the dough. He’s been running for over two years now, and has a full and experienced team in place.

But is $30 million historic? Incredible? A great sign for Trump’s re-election prospects?

Not according to CNBC’s chief Washington correspondent, John Harwood, a man who knows numbers and politics.

(And by the way, President Barack Obama didn’t launch his re-election bid until April 4, 2011. Q2 of 2011 would be April, May, and June.)

Trump’s had two years, a full team, and only took in $30 million?

As the headlines say, that $30 million is “as much as the top 2 Democratic challengers combined.” But don’t forget, there are 18 announced Democratic challengers. That’s a lot of competition. And many Democrats may be waiting to donate until the field narrows down a bit, or until everyone has announced.

$30 million may sound like a lot, but $45 million sounds like a lot more.

Sometimes, like in fundraising and in crowd size, size does matter:

 

 

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2020 Road to the White House

‘Democrats Are Angry’: Polling Shows ‘Massive Blue Wave’ Rising in America’s Cities

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Reuters has conducted an extensive review of polling data and has found that interest in voting in 2020 is surging in urban areas dominated by Democrats faster than in Trump-supporting rural areas.

“Even as Trump commands rock-solid support among Republicans, voters’ interest in going to the polls appears to be growing faster among those who disapprove of Trump than among those who approve of him,” Reuters reports. “The advantage in urban political engagement extends deep into the most competitive battleground states that Trump won by razor-thin margins four years ago.”

One factor that led to Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 was lower turnout in Midwestern cities such as Detroit and Milwaukee — but there are indications that trend is reversing four years later.

“In large urban areas of the upper Midwest, a region that includes swing states Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, the number of people who said they were ‘certain’ to vote in the upcoming presidential election rose by 10 percentage points to 67 percent compared with survey responses from 2015,” Reuters reports.

Nicholas Valentino, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who helped Reuters review and analyze the polling data, said that the results show unmistakable signs that Democratic voters are still furious about President Donald Trump.

“Democrats are very angry,” he said. “Many see this administration as an existential threat to the constitutional order. They’re standing ready to participate to try to change the course of this country.”

Image by Charles Edward Miller via Flickr and a CC license

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2020 Road to the White House

Warren Loudly Cheered for Saying the Only Candidates on Stage ‘Who Have Won Every Single Election They’ve Been in Are the Women’

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U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren appears to have had the best moment of the night at Tuesday Democratic debate. When asked to discuss the current story of the day – can a woman become president in the United States? – Warren appears to have scored big, based on the debate audience’s reaction.

“Senator Warren, what did you think when Sen. Sanders told you a woman could not win the election?” she was asked.

“I disagreed,” Warren said, appearing to take a breath before responding. “Bernie is my friend, and I’m not here to try to fight with Bernie.”

“But look. This question about whether or not a woman can be president has been raised and it’s time for us to attack it, head on. I think the best way to talk about who can win is by looking at people’s winning records. So, can a woman beat Donald Trump? Look at the men on this stage. Collectively they have lost ten elections. The only people on this stage who have won every single election that they’ve been in are the women.”

Warren was greeted with loud cheers.

Warren also added that “the real danger that we face as Democrats is picking a candidate who can’t pull our party together or someone who takes for granted big parts of the Democratic constituency.”

Watch:

 

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2020 Road to the White House

Trump Tries to Manufacture a Warren-Sanders ‘Feud’ While Falsely Claiming ‘Everybody Knows Her Campaign Is Dead’

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President Donald Trump, under fire for assassinating Qasem Soleimani then apparently lying about why he made the decision to kill the top Iranian general is trying to change the national narrative by targeting his Democratic opponents.

After attacking billionaire Mike Bloomberg earlier Monday morning while lying about protecting Americans with pre-existing conditions, Trump turned his attention to his two of his top political rivals.

Taking advantage of the current media narrative that Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – who some claim share a supporter base – have started to “attack” each other, Trump tried to manufacture an all-out “feud.”

After misspelling his racist nickname for Senator Warren, Trump lied about the state of her presidential prospects.

“Everybody knows her campaign is dead,” he tweeted, which is false. “Elizabeth is very angry at Bernie. Do I see a feud brewing?”

In fact, in poll after poll, when asked who their second-choice candidate is, Warren tops the list. While recently losing several points in nationwide and state polls, Warren is consistently in the top three, as RealClearPolitics proves.

Currently FiveThirtyEight places the chances of Biden winning the Democratic presidential nomination at 2 in 5. Sanders at 1 in 4. Warren at 1 in 8. And Buttigieg at 1 in 10.

MSNBC’s Shannon Pettypiece on-air reports that the Trump campaign has decided to attack Sen. Sanders “policies” and “character.”

“It seems,” she said Monday morning,” that this is essentially the Trump campaign “trying to put their finger on the scale of the Democratic primary.”

But Pettypiece says Trump targeting Sanders is more of an attempt to give the Vermont Independent Senator “a boost in the primaries,” given that any time Trump attacks a Democrat it tends to strengthen their poll numbers.

 

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