A new analysis from the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter shows that the Republican Party should be deeply worried about their prospects in the 2018 midterm elections – and she warns they could face an even bigger wipeout than in 2006.
The basis of Walter’s dire forecast for the GOP is her analysis of past Cook ratings for past “wave” midterm elections in 2006 and 2010, in which the organization had listed fewer seats as “highly vulnerable” in August before adding several more such seats to the “highly vulnerable” category by November.
“For example, between July 2006 and November 2006, we moved 24-GOP held seats from Lean/Likely Republican to Toss-Up (or worse),” she writes. “Between August and November of 2010, we moved 35 Democratic-held seats from Lean/Likely Democratic to Toss-Up (or worse).”
Why is this so potentially ominous for the GOP? Because in both 2006 and 2010, the party that controlled Congress wound up losing significantly more seats than the August “highly vulnerable” ratings would suggest.
What’s more, Walter says that “Republicans already have more seats in the highly vulnerable category than they had at this point in 2006 or than Democrats had in August of 2010.”
In the end, Walter concludes that the GOP had better pray something big changes between now and November, or else they face the very real prospect of an electoral wipeout.
“If 2018 follows a similar pattern to 2006 and 2010 – where less vulnerable seats move into more vulnerable territory in the fall – the GOP is almost certain to lose their majority,” she writes.