Report Shows Trump’s Base Eroding – and Fast

‘Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking’

Common wisdom about President Donald Trump among elected Republicans is akin to a comment he made during the campaign: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” That was January of 2016.

Times have changed.

At this point in his tenure, Trump is the most unpopular U.S. president in modern history. Gallup’s daily tracking poll today shows Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 39%, and his disapproval rating at a staggering 55%. 

And yet, for reasons that have yet to be explained Republican elected lawmakers in the House and Senate, not to mention elected Republicans across the nation, almost without exception still publicly support this president. By and large, were they to place country over party, there’s no question most would be rewarded at the ballot boxes.

As far as the fraudulent belief they today hang their hats on, President Donald Trump’s base will not stand by him forever. The number of conservatives who support him will not stay at this level for long. 

“Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking” reports statistician Nate Silver today. “Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now.”

In other words, just one in five Americans strongly support Trump. Three months ago it was three in ten. That’s a big drop in a short period of time.

“Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support,” Silver writes. “And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an ‘enthusiasm gap’ that works against Trump at the midterms.”

On Twitter Silver calls the belief Trump’s base won’t leave him a “myth.”  

There’s already evidence Trump is having a negative impact on voters. Just yesterday, Democrats won two seats in state legislatures that have been GOP strongholds, one in New Hampshire and one in New York. Trump won both districts. 

And in the special U.S. House race in Georgia, one poll shows Democrat Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican Karen Handel by seven points.

Trump’s base will leave him, and likely long before the mid-terms. The idea that Republican politicians would put party before country is disappointing but not surprising. But standing by this president is downright foolish. Trump is likely to be one of the more short-term occupants of the White House. As Republicans are soon to find out.

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Image by Fibonacci Blue via Flickr and a CC license