Analysts Suggest ‘Comey Cost Clinton the Election’


New Report Contends FBI Director's Interference in Election 'Almost Certainly' Swayed Voters to Trump

Just one day before Thursday's bombshell news that the Inspector General of the Dept. of Justice will open an investigation into the unprecedented actions taken by FBI Director James Comey surrounding Hillary Clinton's emails, Vox published a report titled, "4 pieces of evidence showing FBI Director James Comey cost Clinton the election."

The report was authored by Demos policy analyst Sean McElwee, pollster and senior analyst Matt McDermott, and former elections analyst Will Jordan. Together they examine four "exhibits" to prove their case, concluding, "Comey broke a decades-long norm of not intervening in presidential elections. The fact that his interference alone almost certainly swayed an election is indicative of a broader and disturbing breakdown of political norms."

What are the four exhibits?

State Polls

National Polls

Late Deciders

Media Coverage

The three authors remind us that Trump's "edge in the Electoral College, while decisive, depends on less than 80,000 votes across three states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) out of more than 135 million cast nationwide. It was a very close election." 

The Vox article also notes that FBI Director Comey's "letter is unique for a few reasons. First, it was an intervention by an institution that Americans have largely perceived as nonpartisan. (Indeed, the FBI actively works to foster that image.) Second, the intervention was almost perfectly timed to impact Clinton at the worst time — dominating the final week of campaigning as an unusually large number of undecided voters made up their minds. Finally, it aligned perfectly with the narrative pushed by Trump — and bolstered by the media's obsessive coverage of how Clinton handled her State Department email, and the slow-drip release of hacked emails — that Clinton was somehow fundamentally corrupt."

The Clinton camp has repeatedly said they believe the Comey letter, which was sent eleven days before the election, was the turning point that cost them the White House.

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