One Week After Debate Clinton’s Chances of Winning Presidency Have Increased Significantly

Clinton’s Chances Jump Double Digits

Just eight days after last Monday night’s presidential debate Hillary Clinton‘s chances of winning the presidency have increased significantly, according to all of Nate Silvers models at FiveThirtyEight. 

Going into the debate, Clinton had a 54.6% chance of beating Donald Trump, based on Silver’s most logical model, the Polls-plus forecast. But as of this writing (Silver’s forecasts can change throughout the day) Clinton holds a 69.2% chance of taking the White House, a nearly 15 percentage point jump.

The results are even better with Silver’s other models. On debate day, the FiveThirtyEight Polls-only forecast gave Clinton a 54.8% chance. According to that model, she now has a 72.4% chance.

And the FiveThirtyEight Now-cast forecast, one that looks at if the election were held today, puts Clinton at a whopping 79.8% chance of becoming president. That’s up from 52.1% going into the debate.

The presidential debate was a huge turning point in the race, but Trump has become even more unglued since then. 

His 3:20 AM tweet storm, attacking former Miss Universe Alicia Machado was widely panned across the political spectrum. Trump’s surrogates’ attempts to slander Clinton because she has honored her marriage vows and stood by her husband – unlike Trump who is on his third marriage, and unlike his surrogates and supporters, like Newt Gingrich, also on his third marriage – have only served to deliver more women to Clinton’s side.

Tuesday night’s vice presidential election – which NCRM will cover – should prove interesting. 

Here’s Clinton talking to a Toledo, Ohio audience Monday:

 

Image: Screenshot via YouTube