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Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Shows Hillary Clinton’s Chances of Winning Are Higher Than Ever

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Right Now, The Polls-Plus Forecast Has Clinton at an All-Time High

Since Nate Silver‘s FiveThirtyEight began publishing its Polls-plus forecast of the 2016 race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the Democratic nominee is looking at her highest chances of winning to date.

As many know, statistician Nate Silver has a truly winning track record, predicting the 2008 and 2012 presidential races correctly down to the state level, with only one error. FiveThirtyEight offers three different forecast models: NCRM believes the Polls-plus model makes the most sense, compared to the Polls-only model and the Now-cast model.

10_12_polls_plus_1.jpg

Right now, the Polls-plus forecast gives Hillary Clinton an 82.6% chance of winning the presidential race – its highest to date – and Donald Trump a 17.4% chance. 

The Polls-only forecast, which does not take into account other factors, such as the economy, gives Clinton an even better chance: 86.4%, close to her highest-ever in that model, which was 89.2%.

And the Now-cast forecast, which predicts who would win were the election held today, gives Clinton even better odds: 90.1%. The highest ever for that model was 96.4%.

 

Image by Barbara Kinney for Hillary for America via Flickr and a CC license 
Embedded chart via FiveThirtyEight

 

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White House Warns Americans in Russia as Biden Prepares Navalny Sanctions

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Correction: An earlier version of this report did not indicate the date of some of Kirby’s comments at the bottom were from last year.

White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby is reportedly telling Americans in Russia to leave, as the Biden administration prepares to unveil strong sanctions in response to the death of Russian political prisoner Alexei Navalny. Kirby also pressed House Republicans to pass critical foreign aid legislation to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia. His reinforcement of the existing Level 4 “Do Not Travel” Advisory also comes after last Friday’s revelation that Russia may be preparing nuclear weapons for space.

“At President Biden’s direction, we will be announcing a major sanctions package on Friday of this week to hold Russia accountable for what happened to Mr Navalny,” Kirby told reporters Tuesday, AFP reports. “Whatever story the Russian government decides to tell the world, it’s clear President Putin and his government are responsible for Mr Navalny’s death.”

“If the Ukrainians aren’t better supplied,” Kirby also said, “if they don’t get a relief from the shortage of ammunition that they are suffering right now, this move on Avdiivka could actually have a larger effect on the fighting in the east and the amount of territory that the Russians might be able to get over time.”

Veteran foreign policy journalist Laura Rozen reports Kirby also said (not direct quotes): “One of the most powerful things that we can do right now to stand up to Vladimir Putin, of course, is to pass the bipartisan national security supplemental bill and support Ukraine as they continue to fight bravely in defense of their country.”

READ MORE: Fox News Liberal Explains Why Democrats Don’t Care About Charlamagne Tha God’s Biden Slam

She also reports Kirby said, “Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Avdiivka …on Saturday…because they practically ran out of supplies, including artillery ammunition.”

And: “I believe that the President’s comments and willingness to have another conversation reflect a sense of urgency that we all we all believe we’re in and frankly, we believe Congress should believe, instead of being on vacation.”

NewsNation Washington Correspondent Kellie Meyer reports on the White House’s “WARNING TO AMERICANS IN RUSSIA,” which she says included this phrase: “You outta leave right now.”

Meyer also reports Kirby said, “I want to reiterate our very strong warnings about the danger to US citizens in Russia.”

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NBC News‘ Peter Alexander reports President Joe Biden will be speaking with foreign leaders of the G7 on Saturday.

Kirby made similar remarks to CNN last year in March, saying, “this is not the time for Americans to be in Russia. If you’re in Russia now, whether it’s on business or leisure, whatever kind of travel, you need to leave now. This is not a good place for you to be in Russia. Even if you are a working journalist, Russia is a is a hostile environment for American citizens right now. It’s time to go if you’re there.”

 

 

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Fox News Liberal Explains Why Democrats Don’t Care About Charlamagne Tha God’s Biden Slam

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Fox News’ liberal co-host Jessica Tarlov is pushing back against remarks made by Charlamagne Tha God, after the popular “Breakfast Club” radio host took a swing at President Joe Biden over the weekend. She’s telling Fox News viewers that Democratic voters care about actual results, not “main character energy.”

Charlamagne, “said Sunday on ABC’s ‘This Week’ that the 2024 presidential election is between Donald Trump, who he said was a crook, and President Biden, who ‘has no main character energy,'” The Wrap reports. “Charlamagne described the race as being between ‘the cowards’ of the Democratic Party, ‘the crooks’ of the Republicans and ‘the couch,’ pointing to voter apathy.”

“He said that Democrats are cowards ‘because they don’t fight hard enough on anything.’ Meanwhile, Republicans are being led by Trump, who Charlamagne described as ‘a threat to democracy.’ But he thinks ‘the couch’ might really win the race.”

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Charlamagne added, “when I’m out and about, you know, just walking in the street or people are calling into the radio station … nobody is inspired by the upcoming election.”

“There’s nothing about Joe Biden that makes you want to listen to him,” Charlamagne claimed. “That’s why he should be leaning on his vice president. Kamala Harris is way more charismatic. He should be leaning on other surrogates like Gavin Newsom or [Gov. Josh] Shapiro in Pennsylvania.”

“You know, like nobody wants to see the rematch between Biden and Trump, and that’s what makes me feel like the couch is going to win. This is the first time in my life when people say things like, you know, this person is a threat to democracy. It’s absolutely true,” added Charlamagne, speaking in very absolute terms.

Last year iHeart Media said Charlamagne’s syndicated show, which he co-hosts with DJ Envy, reaches “an average of over 4+ million listeners, on nearly 100 stations, in over 40+ cities.”

Fox News co-host Jessica Tarloff on Monday told viewers, “main character energy, yes, it is a great saying, but main character energy to most Democrats I talked to is being able to deliver 81 million votes in 2020, or to get this legislation passed, or to oversee the most successful midterms for a party not in power in the House.”

RELATED: ‘Spare Me the Faux Outrage’: Fox News Liberal Destroys Trump and His ‘Cult’ of MAGA Republicans in Under Two Minutes

“That is main character energy,” she insisted.

“We want to win more than anything else because Donald Trump, the sneaker scion, is the guy on the other side of it. So that’s what I think people are paying attention to.”

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McEnany Meltdown: Biden Beats Reagan, Trump Dead Last in New Scholars’ Survey

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Former Trump White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany denounced a new survey of presidential experts that places President Joe Biden as the 14th greatest President in U.S. history, ahead of Ronald Reagan, while ranking Donald Trump dead last.

“A new ranking – and I’m going to add,  in my view a highly questionable ranking – of presidents is turning heads after Biden came in higher than both Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan,” McEnany told Fox News viewers Monday. She opined, “in his wildest dreams,” referring to President Joe Biden.

“The survey was done by the Presidential Greatness Project, who claim to be the foremost organization of social science experts in presidential politics. They may be the foremost example of the disconnect between ivory tower academia and real people,” McEnany added. “That aside, Abe Lincoln ranked first, okay, fair, then comes Obama at seventh and Biden came in fourteenth, actually beating Ronald Reagan who came in sixteenth, and Trump, dead last.”

“This is infuriating in so many ways. 154 respondents, they are the ivory tower elites, who in no way represent the view of the American people,” McEnany claimed.

READ MORE: ‘Putin’s Puppet’: Critics Blast Trump for Comparing Navalny Death to His Own Legal Crisis

In addition to beating out Ronald Reagan, President Biden came in ahead of Woodrow Wilson and Ulysses S. Grant.

“One thing distancing Trump from the rest of the pack,” Scripps News reports, “was the issue over his ability to unite those with opposing viewpoints. Respondents ranked him the most polarizing president in U.S. history, ahead of Presidents Andrew Jackson, Barack Obama, and Ronald Reagan.”

McEnany’s co-host, Lisa Booth, added, “this list is bogus. Everyone knows that. You know, Obama’s not that high, was a terrible president.”

In 2021 a survey of Presidential historians placed Obama as the tenth best president.

Earlier Monday on Fox News Boothe wrongly claimed, “No one trusts elections anymore after they appended the system during a COVID virus almost as deadly as the flu as they append to the process that with mail-in balloting and trying to take Trump off the ballot. No one trusts the rule of law anymore. It doesn’t exist.”

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