20 Point Jump
In the past ten days the Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate have skyrocketed, jumping 20 points to the second highest point since July, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Polls-plus forecast.
Based on that model, the Democrats now have a 72.4% chance of regaining control of the upper house, and the Republicans have just a 27.6% chance of keeping it. The highest point recorded since FiveThirtyEight began tracking the Senate in July was 72.7% on August 7.
Silver’s other two models are similarly upbeat.
The Polls-only forecast puts the Dems at a 67.5% chance, and the GOP a 32.5% chance.Â
And the Now-cast model, which predicts who would win were the election held today, gives the Democrats a 78.9% chance. It gives Republicans just 21.1%.
Late last month a Gallup poll found that contrary to common perception, Americans now want a united government, and want the same party in charge of the House, the Senate, and the White House. Since Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump, by double digits in some cases, it would seem Democrats should take all three.
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