Forecast Jumps More Than 20 Points Since Debate
Nate Silver’s latest “Now-cast” forecast, which has been predicting Hillary Clinton as favored to win the election, has jumped 24 percentage points in her favor since Monday’s presidential debate. Every reputable poll that has been released shows Clinton won the debate, often by a significant margin, with Trump registering extremely poorly among voters.
If the election were held today, which the FiveThirtyEight Now-cast model forecast is based on, Hillary Clinton would have a 76.1% chance of beating Donald Trump. Before Monday’s debate, Clinton had a 52.1% chance of winning the election.
Of course, the election isn’t being held today.
Silver’s “Polls-only” forecast has also jumped double-digits, now giving Clinton a 67.2% chance of winning, up from 54.8% before the debate.
What is probably the most-reliable of Silver’s three forecast models, the “Polls-plus” forecast, put’s Clinton’s current chances at 64.8%, up from 54.6% before the debate.
Silver also offered this insight Friday via Twitter:
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