Chances of Democrats Taking Back the Senate Surge After Clinton Wins Debate

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The Democrats right now have a 73.2% chance of taking back the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Now-cast prediction model. That’s up from 58.4%, nearly 15 points higher from where the model stood on Monday, when Hillary Clinton won the first presidential debate. 

In fact, the day before the debate, the Republicans were favored to retain control of the Senate, 52-48.

Looking at Nate Silver’s other models, his Polls-only forecast predicts the Democrats will take back the Senate 61.5-38.5. And his Polls-plus forecast predicts Democratic control 64.5-35.5.

Voters who stay home on Election Day or refuse to vote aren’t only helping Trump win the White House, they’re helping Republicans keep the Senate, and they’re not helping advance a liberal agenda in their state and local races either.

Senate Democrats posted this to Facebook Thursday morning:

 

Image by Architect of the Capitol/USCapitol via Flickr