Nate Silver’s Latest Forecast: If Election Held Today Clinton Would Have a 91.6% Chance of Winning

All Three Forecast Versions Give Clinton Strong Chance of Beating Trump

Every day statistician Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight update three forecasts of the 2016 presidential election. As many know, those forecasts include a Polls-only forecast, a “Polls-plus” forecast, and a “Now-cast” forecast – if the election were today.

Sunday afternoon Silver updated the Now-cast forecast, and FiveThirtyEight reports that if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would have a 91.6% chance of winning the White House. Trump would have only an 8.4% chance.

In Silver’s “Polls-plus” forecast, which takes into account historical and economic data as well as what the polls say, Clinton has an 76% chance of winning. Trump has a 24% chance.

And in his polls-only forecast, Clinton has an 83.1% chance of winning. Trump gets a 16.8% chance.

Keep in mind these are projections, or predictions, but given Silver’s excellent record, they are well-respected.

And keep in mind too that the best chance Trump has of winning is if Democrats get complacent and don’t register to vote and don’t vote.

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EARLIER:

Clinton Extends Post-Convention Lead, Trump Loses Ground in New ABC News/WaPo Poll

Just-Released NBC News Poll Gives Clinton 9 Point Jump Over Trump

This Fox News (Yes, Fox News) Poll Shows Clinton Beating Trump by Huge Margins on Nearly Every Topic

More Great News for Clinton: FiveThirtyEight Gives Trump Less Than 1 in 3 Chance of Winning Election

 

Image: Screenshot via Democratic National Convention/YouTube