Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ‘Polls Plus Forecast’ Now Shows Clinton With 68% Chance of Taking White House
The nation’s most respected and well-known elections statistician, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight daily offers three presidential election forecasts: the “now cast,” which says if the election were held today, who would win; the “polls-only forecast,” which looks only at polls to determine the likelihood of the Democratic or Republican candidate winning; and the “polls-plus forecast,” which looks at polling plus historical and economic data to determine likelihood of winning.
NCRM thinks the polls-plus results make the most sense, because the election isn’t being held today, and polls alone don’t tell us everything.
Today, Silver’s polls-plus forecast gives Hillary Clinton a 68% chance of winning the presidency, and Donald Trump a less than one in three chance: just 32%.
Interesting to note, however, that if the election were held today, Clinton would have a nearly 84% chance of winning, and Trump a mere 16.2% chance.
Yesterday’s CNN poll, which gave Clinton a whopping 12-point post-convention bounce, helped her numbers here greatly, but note the results above have not been updated to include today’s just-released NBC News poll.
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Images:
Insert via FiveThirtyEight
Header: Screenshot via Democratic National Convention/YouTube