A Trump Presidency Would Be Such a Crisis It Was Just Added to The Economist’s Top Ten Global Risks


A New Cold War, Jihadi Terrorism Destabilizing the Global Economy, President Donald Trump

From his lavish DJT Ballroom at Mar-A-Lago, Donald Trump Tuesday night praised a new poll in The Economist that shows him with majority support among Republican voters. In fact, so taken with the British magazine's poll was Trump that The Independent reported he spent "much of the early going of his speech" on it.

So imagine the GOP frontrunner's surprise today when he learns The Economist has just added a Donald Trump presidency to its top ten list of global risks.

To be accurate, it's the Economist's Intelligence Unit, an international research arm of the famed magazine's parent company that's put a Trump presidency on its list, alongside other possible catastrophes, like if the "rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy," "Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea," or "Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new 'cold war.'"

These are more tangible, imminent possibilities, not baseless "global thermonuclear war" or a meteor dropping out of the sky and flattening New York City. It lists a Trump presidency as "moderate probability."

So, what does the Economist Intelligence Unit say about President Trump?

It notes that "Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies - and these tend to be prone to constant revision - but a few themes have become apparent."

"In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war - and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) reports.

"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond."

What does this all mean?

"Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn. It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress - albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking."

How often does this happen?

“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU told Politico. 


Hat tip: Politico
Image by Michael Vadon via Flickr and a CC license